Thursday, April 22, 2004

Carlos Lee's walk rate

Let's take Carlos' temperature, shall we?

So Carlos's walk rate through about 1/10th of the season is up substantially - even though not to the 2002 levels. Carlos is much more valuable when he's on base, so let's hope that he keeps this up. Since we don't have more than the 2002 season to go on, it's hard to tell how more selectivity at the plate helps Carlos. His average and home run were about the same in 2001 and 2002 despite more than doubling his walk rate (although C Lee's home run rate was higher in 2002). And his walk rate dropped by more than half in 2003 but his average and home runs went up (but his home run rate stayed about the same). It'd be nice if Carlos put together a .290 batting average with 70 walks this year. He'd have a .370-.380 OBP and probably a .500 SLG...making him one of the best leftfielders in the AL.

In any case, there's no question I'd rather have a Carlos Lee that gets on base at at .360 clip a la 2002 rather than the Carlos Lee of 2003, despite the 5 more homers and bunch more RBI.

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