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Tuesday, April 26, 2005

No Judy Tonight


In case you missed it, Jon Garland was in total command tonight in blanking the A's on 4 hits, getting his second career shutout. Garland's game log thus far this season is pretty interesting, too. So far this season, he's gone longer each start and given up fewer runs:

StartIPR
4/9 vs. Twins63
4/15 vs. Mariners72
4/20 vs. Tigers81
4/25 vs. A's90


I will reserve judgment on Garland. I've been fooled by Garland in this space before. Could I have really written that Garland might be a game 1 or game 2 starter in the playoffs for the Sox? Yikes. But I have to admit, it's a hell of a start to a season.

Other Notes:

The Sox actually drew an intentional walk tonight....with 2 HBP and 2 walks, they reached 4 times without getting a hit or benefitting from an error. When Everett got the intentional walk so that Juan Cruz could face Konerko, I remember thinking that is exactly what Konerko needs . . . and he promptly delivered. Looks like Joe Crede was limping, and he was taken out. [ed- he was taken out for an arm problem. Weird, I thought he was running poorly] Everett was clutch again in the 7th, but his average has slipped to the .250's....he carried the White Sox for the first week and a half it seemed. The Sox finished their second 10-game segment with a 9-1, unheard of in recorded history (well, in Black Betsy history).


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Monday, April 25, 2005

"Wow" Stat Line From The Minors


If you follow the Sox's minor league fortunes (I do so on soxtalk.com, which is the best site to follow the Sox's farm system), you've probably heard about Gio Gonzalez, a pitcher the Sox drafted out of high school last year as a supplemental first round draft pick. He "slid" in the draft because he had been kicked off of his high school team, apparently because his mother complained about his brother's playing time to the coach. After an impressive debut last year, he's put up this absurd stat line thus far this year:

IPHBBKERA
22116381.23

That line, dear readers, is an absurdity. One hit every two innings, and almost two strikeouts per inning. He's had four starts, with 9 K's, 10K's, 9 K's, and 10 K's - never pitching more than 6 innings. He's dominating the South Atlantic League even more so than Brandon McCarthy last year.

This is a low-A player, mind you, meaning that caution in expectations is required, but his performance thus far is still impressive stuff.

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Sunday, April 24, 2005

Tadahito Iguchi, 19 Games Later

Not too long ago, I noted that I thought new Sox second baseman's swing looked bad and that Iguchi might not turn out to do so well in the U.S. When Iguchi signed with the White Sox, I also looked at other Japanese position players who came to the U.S. as a measuring tool for what Iguchi might do over here.

It looks like I was right the first time. What we see from Iguchi is that he is contributing a good batting average, but his OBP and SLG have decreased from his days in Japan. In other words, for you non-statheads, he's walking less and hitting for less power.

I also can see why his power numbers and patience numbers have dropped. He seems like he is really trying to get base hits more than anything - trying to hit pitches in at bats that he knows he can handle. He has been impressive against good pitchers like Johan Santana as well - pitchers who you might think he would struggle against the most. I think that he'll add power as the season goes along, as well as start being more selective at the plate. I think that a .300/.350/.430 season is not out of the question.


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Saturday, April 23, 2005

Ozzie and Maggs


Well, I have not commented on it thus far, but it bears mentioning. As most Sox fans know, Ozzie Guillen had some choice words for Maggio Ordonez this week:

"'He's a piece of (bleep),' Guillen told White Sox beat writers after learning of Ordonez's contempt for Guillen and alleging his manager steered him away from the Sox and to Detroit.

'He's a (bleep), that's what he is,' Guillen continued. 'He's another Venezuelan (bleep). (Bleep) him. 'He has an enemy. Now he has a big one. He knows I can (bleep) him a lot of different ways. He better shut the (bleep) up and play for the Detroit Tigers.'"

I do not find the vulgarity shocking or interesting - it's more comical than anything - but Guillen does say one thing that interests me. He says that he can [bleep] Ordonez is a lot of different ways. How can the Sox's manager [bleep] a player on another team?

(1) Have his pitchers throw at him. Wouldn't this be too obvious now and simply make Guillen ripe for a suspension?

(2) Have something happen to him in Venezuala? Is Ozzie a member of some Venezualan cosa nostra? (cosa nuestro?). Doubtful, Ozzie's too rich to need to be in the mob.

(3) Reveal something about Magglio? This seems to be a more likely result. But what would he reveal? Would he talk to the mother of Magglio Jr. and Maggliana about Maggs' on-the-road behavior? Or would he rat out Magglio for the use of steroids?

I doubt Ozzie would tell how he could bleep Maggs, but it's an interesting thing to consider. Even if Ozzie said something about steroids, would that really hurt Maggs at all? Could Detroit void his contract? At the end of the day, I guess I do not give a bleep.

In other news...the Sox walked
7 times last night in beating the KC Royals 8-2. The Sox have now walked 31 times in 17 games, which is still historically awful. It was good to see Freddy Garcia to throw a pretty nice game in adverse conditions. Giving up no walks in last night's blustery weather was relatively impressive. In fact, Garcia, Garland and Buehrle are all showing great control this year so far:

PitcherBB/9
Buehrle1.74
Garcia2.25
Garland1.71

The Royals look bad. They do not pitch well, field well, or hit well. At times, I began to feel sorry for them and for their fans. But that's the old way of thinking...I quickly lost the sympathy when I remembered that the Royals actually won a World Series in my lifetime, and played in one other. Your cup runneth over, Royals fans.

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Friday, April 22, 2005

12-4, 'Taint So Bad

Well, since Wednesday and my last post, the Sox beat Detroit, and beat Detroit again, and got on a plane to KC, a team against which they went 13-6 last year (16% of the Sox's total victories last year). But we all know that past performance does not guarantee future results. The Sox actually get the "top" of the KC rotation, facing Run, Elvis, Run, Zach Greinke in the first two games. But hey, if we win the first two like we always do, Denny Bautista goes on Sunday to prevent the three-game sweep.

And despite "Ozzie Ball" or "Smart Ball," or whatever you want to call it this week, the Sox offense has been dominated by the long ball again thus far. They are second in the American League in home runs (20), and 32 of their 71 runs (45%) have crossed the plate via the home run. The walks are still low (25 in 16 games), and the OBP is abysmal (.288). This is still a home-run based offense.

Luckily, the Sox's pitching has been dominant - allowing 3 runs or fewer in 8 of the 16 games. The result is that, despite the anemic offense, the Sox are 12-4 and atop the AL Central by two games.

This is the best start since Jimmy Dykes' 1935 White Sox, who were an interesting team in their own right. They started 13-4, then made it to 17-7 before falling back a bit. They peaked at 51-37 on July 31, and were only 3.5 games behind the Detroit Tigers. By August 16th, however, it was all over. They were 53-50 and 13 games back, having suffered a 2-13 stretch. They finished 74-78, meaning that they went 23-41 in August and September.

The '35 Pale Hose, however, were the opposite of the '05 team. They came out of the gates with a great offense, scoring 106 runs in those first 16 games (6.6 runs per game) - 2 runs per game more than the '05 version. The also allowed 77 runs, almost 5 per game in its own right.

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Wednesday, April 20, 2005

Crede's Semi-Shot At Mauer


The Cheat noticed this first, but Joe Crede did give a little love tap to Joe Mauer as he scored from third tagging on a fly ball in the fifth inning last night. And Rick Morrisey and Mark Gonzales noticed it, too.

I've always thought that Torii Hunter invited massive retaliation on Mauer with his
cheap shot on Jamie Burke last year. To mix a metaphor, given Mauer's knee problems, people who have glass catchers should not throw stones.

By the way, Podsednik had a perfectly good opportunity to bowl over Mauer in the first inning but didn't. Given Podsednik's slight stature and recent injuries, I do not blame him, but allowing Mauer to block the plate like that was the reason he was out.

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Second Week Thoughts


Last October, I wrote how the Sox were a team of extremes, scoring fewer than 3 runs 45 times, while also scoring more than 7 runs 41 times. They did exceptionally poorly in games in which they scored fewer than three runs, losing 44 of those 45 games. Just two weeks into this season, the White Sox already have two victories where they have scored fewer than three runs – opening day vs. Cleveland and Buehrle’s 1 hour, 39 minute gem on Saturday. They are actually 2-1 so far in games where they have scored fewer than 3 runs. And more than 7 runs? They have only had 1 of those games and won it, the 8-5 victory over Minnesota two Saturdays ago. By this time last year, they had scored over 7 runs four times.

It is beating a dead horse at this point to say how poorly the White Sox have done in taking walks and getting on base. After another Radke zero-walk outing, they now have a total of 19 walks in 14 games, which is
beyond pathetic I mean, in any 14 game stretch, the Sox should be walking by accident more than 19 times. 19 walks in 499 plate appearances….that’s a team full of Ozzie Guillens! Oh, wait. Talk about building a team in your image.

On the pitching side, the Sox have not improved their walk totals from last year – by walking 46 batters in 14 games, they are on almost exactly the same pace (3.28/game) as 2004, where they walked 3.25 per game.

The biggest plus pitching wise, however, has been the prevention of the long ball. They allowed 224 home runs in 162 games last year, about 1.38 homers per game. This year, they have allowed only 11 in 14 games, which is .78 per game. Excel says that is a 43% decline from last year. Since home runs are of critical importance to today’s game, the decrease in home runs allowed is important. I would hope it holds up – like the Sox’s pitiful walk rate, it probably won’t – but an improvement in the dinger department will go a looooong way to improving the team’s pitching this year.

It’s also nice to see the Sox beat the Twinkies four of their first five games. They did so despite a series of horrible calls against them – including the phantom balk on Contreras, the strikes given to Johan Santana that ESPN’s “K-Zone” showed were out of the zone, the bad call on Rowand at second last night, etc. It’s good to see a little luck come our way.

Return of the 10 Game Segments


As I posted last year, I like to track the Sox’s season in terms of 10-game segments (also discussed here and here). The point of all this is to shorten the season into bite-size packages to judge how the White Sox are performing. A good team will have a bunch of 7-3 and 8-2 segments to offset any 4-6 or 3-7 stretches, will have no more than one 2-8 or 1-9 segments, and will otherwise play 6-4 or 5-5 baseball per every 10 games. The bottom line is that the Sox need five or six 7-3 or better stretches to be competitive this year.

The Sox finished their first 10-game segments 7-3. A good start.

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Friday, April 15, 2005

It's Not Just Me

Jim Baker at Baseball Prospectus has a bit on the Sox's refusal to take a free ride to first base. The Sox aren't just failing to walk. They are failing to walk at an historically low rate.

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Trouble Finishing Sweeps


For the third series in a row, the White Sox went for a sweep of the opposition and lost last night. El Duque pitched poorly, and despite 12 hits and a phenomenally impressive three walks (increasing the season total by 30% in one fell swoop), the Sox managed to plate just 6 runs, 3 coming on Paul Konerko's three run bomb in the third inning.

The failure to sweep the Jndjans made me recall, anecdotally, that the Sox have had trouble sweeping teams when they had won the first two games of the series in recent years. I seem to recall being disappointed by the failure to sweep a number of times.

My theory would be that the Sox should have at least a .500 record in the third game of a three-game sweep over the last few years, roughly matching their season records since 2002. Anything way below .500 would indicate that they've had trouble
closing the deal. I expected the Sox to have a .400 or so record in those games.

I was wrong. In fact, the Sox have performed right about at the .500 level from 2002-2004. In 2002, they went 4-7 when going for the three game sweep, which was balanced by a 6-4 record in 2003. In 2004 - and this shocked me - they actually went 4-1 in the third games of series when they had won the first two games. This year's 0-3 only set them back to a 14-15 record overall, which is pretty close to .500.

So, I do not think that the Sox fail to have a killer instinct or let down when they have already won a series. It's just another problem of selective memory and small sample size.

Here's to winning all three against
Seattle. The pitching matchups are there, the home cooking is there, and the hitting woke up a little bit in the last two nights. Let's get all three from the Mariners. If not, 2 out of 3 ain't so bad.

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Thursday, April 14, 2005

Semi-Brilliant Idea Of The Day



With Brandon McCarthy a viable option in AAA, why not Jose Contreras and $2 million to the Phillies for Ryan Howard and ...uh, Aaron Fultz or something.

Howard is a lefty power bat that can play first base and replace Paul Konerko's $8 million salary next year. The Sox would be making their team $12 million cheaper next year, and probably just as good or better. The Phillies get a decent starter at $5 million per year in 2005-2006 (Contreras makes $8 million, of which $2 million is paid by the Yankees).

Given the ascendancy of McCarthy, and the possible ascendancy of Brian Anderson (who, unlike other Sox players, will take a walk), the Sox could be cheaper AND better in 2006 if McCarthy replaces Contreras or Garland and Anderson replaces Podsednik. Put Josh Fields into the mix - he's 5 for 15 with 5 walks already in Birmingham, and things are really looking up for the White Sox.

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Carlos Lee, And Walks Again


Carlos Lee already has 4 walks on the season, which is double the best total on the White Sox (Podsednik and Konerko have 2 each). .

No walks in last night's victory over the Tribe...and it's not like Cliff Lee is Brad Radke when it comes to accuracy. As of last night,
Cliff Lee had walked 110 men in 251 1/3 career innings, or about 3.8 per 9 innings. They should have been able to draw at least one or two walks against the guy/

The White Sox have a .265 On-Base-Percentage through 8 games. This Cannot Stand. The Sox cannot win games consistently by getting on base once out of every four times.

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Wednesday, April 13, 2005

Sickels on Buehrle



If you have not read John Sickels' minor league blog on Sportsblogs, you should. I recently noted that he posted an article looking back at Mark Buehrle as a prospect in the minor leagues, linked here. More than anything, it demonstrates how players like Buehrle - with a "baseball intelligence" or, I guess a certain Je Ne Sais Quoi, can slip through the cracks and surprise people by outperforming their statistics or "tools."

The Cheat, who reads BlackBetsy from time to time, commented on Sickels' thread noting that because of their low draft position, Brandon McCarthy (17th round) is often compared to Mark Buehrle (38th round) in the Sox organization. That's only a fair comparison as far as they are both late round surprises, but McCarthy has had much better of track record thus far. Here's a comparison between the two at similar ages:

Pitcher/Yr/AgeIPHBBKERA
Buerhle/2000/21118.29517682.28
McCarthy/2004/21172134302023.14


As you can see, McCarthy fared slightly better in terms of hits per 9 innings, has only as slightly poorer walk rate, and had a much, much higher strikeout rate. Now, just for fun, I'll throw in the Greatest Sox Pitching Prospect Of Recent History, Jon Rauch, in his Minor League Pitcher of the Year Season (2000):

Pitcher/Yr/AgeIPHBBKERA
Buerhle/2000/21118.29517682.28
McCarthy/2004/21172134302023.14
Rauch/2000/21166138491872.67


As you can see, Rauch probably had a better season than Buehrle, but his was still behind McCarthy's 2004. And, lest we not forget, Rauch was Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2000. Three pitchers, three great minor league years. Of course, Buehrle has the ultimate advantage on the other two - he's been successful in the majors for 5 years now. Rauch has been injured, but pitched decently for the Expos last year and still is likely to be a starter for someone. McCarthy...we can all just wait and see. But I think he's got top-of-the-rotation-starter written all over him.

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Tuesday, April 12, 2005

First Week Thoughts

I have curbed my enthusiasm about the Sox's 2-1 series victory against the Twins. After all, they got off to a great start against the Twinkies last year, winning 7 of the 10 games against them before the All Star Break. And coming out with a 1-game lead and a 4-2 record is nice, but does not call for any great celebration.

In fact, there are a number of things that have caused me concerns in the first week. But chief among those is the fact that the Sox have taken only 10 walks in the first 7 games - a microscopic walk rate. Only the Twins have that few walks, and they've played one fewer game. 1.4 walks per game is not going to cut it, fellas.

Now, there are some reasons for this low walk rate. They have faced Johan Santana and Brad Radke thus far, who have some of the lowest walk rates in the American League. Kevin Millwood has had pretty good control in his career, too. But none of them have had 1.4 walk per game rates.

Any part of a getting-on-base strategy must involve walks. And the Sox's offseason involved getting rid of two players - Carlos Lee and Magglio Ordonez - who had decent if not spectacular walk rates. Scott Podsednik has a decent walk rate, but his batting average needs to be .290+ to match Carlos Lee's OBP. Jermaine Dye will not replace Magglio's walk rate either.

The bullpen has looked a little shaky, too, although the vast majority of the bullpen problems came in the 11-5 loss to the Jndjans in the last game of that series. In fact, in the other 6 games the Sox have played, they have allowed only 15 runs...an average of 2.5 runs per game. The starting pitching has been nothing short of spectacular thus far - save for a Torii Hunter home run on Sunday night. And, if that weren't enough, Brandon McCarthy gave up only 2 hits and 1 run while striking out 10 and walking 1 in his Charlotte debut on Saturday. The best case scenario for this season is the rotation to get very hot, with Jose Contreras looking good through June, and trading Contreras for a young, patient left-fielder with power...

In other good news, the Twinkies are only 3-3 despite the fact that they have had 4 starts from Brad Radke and Johan Santana already. Given that those two pitchers will only be 40% of their rotation and not 66% percent..that's not exactly a great start under those conditions. And, the Twins only have 10 walks themselves.

Everyone in the AL Central seems to be off to a poor offensive start - except for the Tigers, who are only 3-3 themselves. So much for the great offense the Jndjans have, although Millwood appears to be a pretty good pick up for them.

I wish there were more encouraging things to say about 5-2 record. But a 5-2 record is a good enough start that I can take a wee bit of pleasure from.

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Friday, April 08, 2005

Live by the 9th, Die by the 9th

Here's a lesson to be learned from poker that applies to baseball. Sometimes, you stay in a hand until the end and hit your flush, your straight or your set on the last card dealt (the river). You probably weren't rational when you held those cards to stay in (maybe you held a Jack and a Ten when there was an Ace and a Queen on the board), but you did, it hit, and you won. Sometimes, someone else stays in to the river when they shouldn't have and beat you on the last card.

Although it's frustrating, your best response is to shrug the loss away. You've won ones like that before. The key is not to keep staying in hands you shouldn't until the river - you'll lose many dollars for each time your card doesn't hit as compared to the few times your card does hit. Hence the phrase "Live by the River, die by the River."

So I won't take Thursday's 11-5 loss too hard. The Sox were playing with house money after Tuesday's thrilling 4-3, 4-runs-in-the-bottom-of-the-ninth victory. Of course, it is an odd juxtaposition to have two games like that consecutively, but the Sox were destined to give up a big lead in the 9th inning this year. Hell, if Mariano Rivera can do it, Shingo Takatsu can do it.

The problem is where the Sox either are consistently behind in games trying to put together a 9th inning rally, or where the Sox are consistently giving up the 9th inning runs. Shingo's pitches were up in the zone yesterday - it happens once, it's a bad game. If it happens a couple of times, then you start to worry. Of course, we are White Sox fans, so we do not need much reason to worry.

A Note On Black Betsy's New Slogan

You probably did not notice, but BlackBetsy's slogan (below the title) was recently changed to "Minnesota Twins Delenda Est." This, of course, is a reference to Rome in the days of the Punic Wars with Carthage. Late in those wars, Cato the Elder would end every speech before the Rome Senate with the phrase "Carthago Delenda Est" - "Carthage Must Be Destroyed." It was the raison d'etre of the Roman republic during that time. Similarly, I particularly feel that the Sox's entire efforts this season should be at beating the Minnesota Twins - indeed, "destroying" them. Send them back to whining-about-their-revenues-small-market-status. Three years of good hops and Twinkie Dome cheating are enough. The Minnesota Twins must be destroyed.

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Thursday, April 07, 2005

Another Ozzie April Comeback

As it turns out, the Sox have had these late-inning comebacks in April under Ozzie Guillen before. There was April 14 against KC last year. There was April 25 against Tampa Bay, too. And who can forget the granddaddy of them all, April 28 against Cleveland, where the Sox scored 5 in the ninth to grab a 9-8 victory.

So, my response to yesterday's game is, YAWN. You've got to expect heartattack victories under the Oz.

Too early to tell anything about this team. I do not like Iguchi's swing at all, and feel like he'll have a hard time hitting well in MLB with that swing. Maybe it was just early-game jitters when I saw him. Podsednik's swing looks a little funny to me, too. Then again, we've already got Juan Uribe's funny cut on our team, so we seem to be collecting strange swings.

Hey, you know what I think about Cleveland? They had a really bad bullpen last year (read more specifically about it here). And they have not really improved it by much. It's the same cast of characters from last year, with the exception of Arthur Rhodes. Good old David Riske is back, our man Bob Wickman, and Bobby Howry. The Jndjans bullpen was their Achilles' heel last year, and it'll be their Achilles' heel this year I believe as well.

Meanwhile, the Twinkies are 2-1 beating Seattle (99 losses last year) two of three in Seattle. Frustratingly, lucky-as-hell Carlos Silva continued his lucky streak, giving up 9 hits and striking out NOBODY but allowing only 1 run against the Mariners. Where are you Voros McCracken when we need you the most?

First two days assessment: Pitching good, hitting not so good. The first two days' assessment will be tested sorely this afternoon as Jose Contreras takes the hill. Could be a no-hitter. Could be in the showers by 1:45. You never can tell.

By the way, the White Sox got a little sympathy from the Gray Lady about the long dry spell of World Series champions. Well, misery loves company and the New York Times, I guess.

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Monday, April 04, 2005

We Begin Anew

Opening Day. A million words, well, probably a billion by now, have been written about the sacred nature of Opening Day. I will not add to that chorus, other than to say "Ditto." Like the Chairman (see note on jitters), I'm never really happy until the Sox get their first win of the season. The last two years, Opening (2003 and 2004) has been gut-wrenching. It's no fun at all seeing Mark Buehrle pitch well enough only to lose.

And, well, Buehrle pitched well enough that he couldn't lose today. I found myself thinking at times in the first four innings that we might see a reprise of Bob Feller's opening day no-hitter against the White Sox way back in 1874 (yeah, I know, but I was too lazy to google that one). Alas, it was not to be. The scariest thing was watching it on about a 90 minute delay on TiVo. Since I watch games on between fast forward 1 and fast forward 2, I was only 30 minutes behind when the game ended. I was a little surprised to see the "Live TV Message" box (which is DirecTV's way of telling you the game is over and they've cut the Extra Innings feed) flashing so soon. Given the zero-zero score, I thought for sure the Sox had lost the game - especially so when I saw that the Sox were going into the top of the 9th with a 1-0 lead and DirecTV said I still had 20 minutes left. I figured Shingo's magic was gone and the Sox dumped another opening day game. Much to my delight, Buehrle pitched 8 innings of shut out ball, the Racist Cartoons' heralded rookie shortstop choked at a key time, and Shingo went 1-2-3 in the ninth - with help from Ross Gload - to seal away a 1-0 victory. Pitching and defense, indeed.

Here's a reminder. The last Sox 1-0 victory was on May 13, 2003 against the Baltimore Orioles...pitched by Esteban Loaiza (Washington Nationals) and featuring 2 hits by D'Angelo Jimenez (Cincinnati Reds), and Frank Thomas (DL). Miguel Olivo (Mariners) drove in the only run, scored by Magglio Ordonez (Tigers). Tom Gordon (Yankees) and Billy Koch (out of baseball and angry) closed out the game for the Sox. Think there has been any turnover since 2003?

In other good news, only one of the ESPN "experts" - Rob Neyer - picked the White Sox to win the division. That means the Sox do not have many expectations to live up to this season (all White Sox fans know that Neyer is just trying to make up for his idiotic off-season post). And those Minnesota Twhiners can stop complaining about a lack of respect. The jinx of high expectations... I live for this!

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