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Sunday, April 30, 2006

Public Service Announcement

Read Johnny Mostil's Razor.

Sometimes I fear that I'm one of Doug's only readers, and that is a crying shame. He's the best analyst of Sox baseball there is, period. If you are a Sox fan, you should like Doug's writing. He's a reformed stat-head, who looks much deeper that AVG/OBP/SLG lines indicate. He looks for the context that makes the statistics meaningful.

Here's an example. You might think
Jhonny Peralta is a great hitting shortstop. And he is a very good hitter - he banged out 24 home runs last year. Doug wasn't satisfied with Peralta's stat line based on his own observations, so he went inside Peralta's game log to discover that, for the most part, Peralta didn't hit good pitching. The overwhelming portion of his home runs were off bottom of the rotation starters or bottom-of-the-bullpen arms.

Similarly, while Cleveland put up the league's best run differential last year, Doug went behind those numbers to determine that Eric Wedge was, for the most part, leaving in his starters in garbage time situations, who then were running up scores or making blowouts closer. Wedge was managing to his player's stats, thereby making the team's performance look better.

While not every one of Doug's posts is going to be a winner, I really enjoyed
his post yesterday about the team's performance thus far. Doug put into words what a lot of Sox fans are feeling - we've got a great record thus far, but we are uneasy because the Sox aren't winning in the same way they won last year. That's been inchoate in my mind for a while, and I almost got there with this post.


Comments-[ comments.]

Saturday, April 29, 2006

AJ's Hot Lukewarm Start


As I was looking at the American League hitting leaders marveling at Paul Konerko's lofty .386 average, I was a little surprised to see AJ Pierzynski rolling in at #9 with a .359 average. I was vaguely aware that AJ was hitting in the mid-.300's, but didn't know he was putting up a .359/.395/.408 line.

The reason I was not as aware is that I track ERV, not average. And on the ERV front, AJ has been below average. He simply isn't producing runs offensively at the pace suggested by his AVG and OBP. As of last night's game, he is -3.19 ERV, meaning that an average hitter would have produced 3 more runs than AJ given the runners on base and outs presented to AJ. And, indeed, if you look back game by game over the season, AJ has failed to get a clutch hit with runners on base a number of times. Sure enough, AJ is hitting .250/.318/.300 with runners on base, while putting up a gaudy .484/.500/.548 line with the bases empty. This is how AJ can hit .359 and only have 5 RBI.

AJ's -3.19 ERV puts him well behind a number of Sox hitters. Obviously, he is behind Thome (16.24), Konerko (13.19), and Dye (11.42), but also Pablo Ozune (3.62), Joe Crede (3.44), Tadahito Iguchi (2.08), Ross Gload (-0.31), Chris Widger (-1.98), and Juan Uribe (-2.12).

The good news is that AJ's performance is not a character defect.
Last year, he hit .294/.361/.492 with runners on base.

Comments-[ comments.]

Sox 8, Los Angeles of Anaheim 5


Hooray for Jeff Weaver. After dominating the Sox early in his career (or so it seemed), he's really turned it around and become a reliable victory for the Sox. His control was non-existent, even if he had his strikeout pitch working, and he grooved a number of cookies for Sox hitters to munch on. Only Jermaine Dye homered for the Sox.

The Angels helped out with a number of bad defensive plays. Adam Kennedy couldn't reach Podsednik's weak two-out grounder up the middle of the second, and then Garret Anderson gator-armed Iguchi's long fly (which I thought was an easy home run off the bat) to left. All in all, the five-run second inning was largely a set of Angel gifts.

Oddly enough, the Sox have batted 9 men in an inning several times, but have not sent more than 9 to the plate. This is great for your scoresheet or spreadsheet, but it would be nice to put up a 7 spot or so.

Jim Thome looks like he is heading for a slump to me. He didn't make contact with some juicy pitches last night.

Here is your ERV scoresheet / boxscore:

Batter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th B/R Total
Pods

0.38

1.69

-0.37

-0.24

0.31

-0.44

1.33

Iguchi

-0.35

1.91

0.38

0.27

-0.75

1.46

Thome

-0.11

-0.35

-0.35

-0.31

-0.24

-1.35

Konerko

0.38

0.38

0.63

0.21

0.27

1.87

Dye

0.57

1.62

-0.69

-0.44

-0.31

0.75

AJ

-0.56

0.38

-0.49

0.38

-0.24

-0.52

Crede

0.61

-0.35

-0.24

-0.35

-0.24

-0.56

Uribe

-0.78

1.43

-0.17

-0.31

0.27

-0.24

0.20

Anderson

1.00

-0.61

-0.11

0.21

-0.31

0.18

Total

3.35


Pitcher ERV
Garcia

0.10

McCarthy

-0.98

Cotts

0.42

Jenks

0.11

Total

-0.35


Player of the Game: Paul Konerko

Pitcher of the Game: Neal Cotts


Comments-[ comments.]

Thursday, April 27, 2006

Seattle 5, Sox 1


You know, I really believed - until the very end - that the Sox were going to come back and win this game. And with a number of fits and starts at rallies, it did look like they would stage a comeback several times. But Willie Bloomquist's nice play on Crede's line drive in the 7th put the kaibosh on that. Kudos to Konerko for recognizing that it would get caught and tagging all the way. He scored a run only because he did tag up on that play.

Buehrle looked awful in one inning, and the Mariners scored three runs. That turned out to be more than enough, and Mark takes his first loss of the season. Thankfully, because he went 7 innings, the game ended in 2 hours and 20 minutes or so, and I got a bit more sleep last night than the nights before.

Here is your ERV boxscore / scoresheet:

Batter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th B/R Total
Pods

-0.24

-0.24

-0.24

-0.17

-0.88

Iguchi

-0.17

-0.24

-0.17

-0.11

-0.69

Thome

-0.11

0.27

-0.11

0.38

0.43

Konerko

-0.24

0.37

0.38

0.57

1.08

Dye

-0.17

-0.47

0.57

-1.10

-1.17

Crede

-0.11

-0.44

-0.29

0.12

-0.72

Uribe

-0.24

-0.24

0.17

-0.49

-0.80

Widger

0.27

-0.17

-0.35

-0.25

Anderson

-0.31

-0.11

-0.24

-0.66

Total

-3.65


Pitcher ERV
Buehrle -0.38
Jenks -0.48
Total -0.87

Player of the Game: Paul Konerko

Pitcher of the Game: None awarded (no pitchers with positive ERV)


Comments-[ comments.]

Wednesday, April 26, 2006

Laughers


Friend of Black Betsy Aaron S. wrote on the White Sox e-mail list:
Is it me, Or have we already been on the upside of more laughers this season than all of last season?
An interesting question. One that requires a definition - what is a laugher? I guess you could define it by win probability - one that you have a less than 5% chance losing if the eventual winning margin was held in the 7th inning. In other words, if you had a 4% chance of losing a game you were up by 5 runs in the 7th inning, that's a laugher.

As it turns out, a "laugher" as defined above on the road is any game where the visiting team is up by 5 or more runs in the beginning of the 7th inning. Visiting teams win 97% of the time when they are up 5 or more runs in the 7th. At home, a "laugher" as defined above would be any game where the home team is up by 4 runs or more at the beginning of the 7th. Home teams win 96.2% of the time with such a lead.

With that definition in mind, the Sox have won 7 "laughers" already this year (vs. Cleveland April 2 (10-4), vs. Kansas City April 17 (9-0), vs. Kansas City April 9 (4-0), vs. Minnesota April 21 (7-1), vs. Minnesota April 22 (9-2), vs. Minnesota April 23 (7-3), at Seattle, April 25 (13-3)). Note that 6 of the Sox's last 7 victories have been laughers, as such.

Last year, it took until June 8th against Colorado for the Sox to get their seventh "laugher" victory of the year. Note that the Sox did have a bunch last year - 13 before the All Star Break alone - but only had 4 laughers in their red-hot 28-12 start to the season.

Good teams get a lot of laughers in a season. They are both a demonstration of a good team and helpful to a good team at once. If you have a laugher, you can rest your starters, your key closers, and give guys like Boone Logan a shot a major league experience. That makes you more competitive in close games.

Comments-[ comments.]

Sox 13, Seattle 3


There's that 13 run pool again. Another laugher for the Sox this year - good for the Baseball Prospectus adjusted standings - and the meat of the order continues to crush the ball. Thome, Konerko and Dye have all blown past +10 ERV on the year (Thome +17.2, Dye +11.8, Konerko +10.2).

There's almost never much to write about in this kind of blowout. It's fun to watch the ball fly out of the park, and to see Brian Anderson take a couple of walks and look much better at the plate. Boone Logan looked shaky again when called in the 7th, looked marginally better in the 8th, and fine in the 9th. He will, through the absurdity of the Save Rule, be
credited with his first major league save. But Logan is far, far away from being ready for a high-leverage situation. He is only fit for mop up duty right now.

On an unrelated note, the Mariners usually have the best promo commercials. There is a lame one with people crashing into objects around the office to imitate Ichiro, but they do have a couple of good ones. One makes fun of Moyer, suggesting he was there for various firsts in major league history (first night game, 1938, etc.). Another has people striking an Ichiro-pose in various daily activities. Still not as good as the one where Moyer gets excited about seeing his pitches in kph, but good.

Here's your ERV boxscore / spreadsheet:

Batter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th B/R Total
Pods

-0.24

0.57

0.13

-0.20

0.13

-0.17

0.21

0.44

Iguchi

-0.17

1.10

-0.24

0.09

1.87

-0.11

2.55

Thome

0.13

-0.16

-0.24

1.05

0.78

Widger

-0.11

-0.11

Konerko

0.21

1.30

-0.17

1.11

2.45

Gload

1.00

1.00

Dye

-0.44

-0.17

1.00

0.14

1.00

1.53

AJ -0.24 -0.11 0.13 1.00 -0.24

0.55

Crede

-0.17

1.00

-0.24

-0.75

-0.17

-0.33

Uribe

-0.11

-0.24

-0.24

-0.24

-0.11

-0.93

Anderson

0.38

-0.17

0.27

-0.17

-0.24

0.35

0.42

Total

8.35


Pitcher ERV
Vazquez

1.79

Logan

-0.14

Total

1.65

Player of the Game: Tadahito Iguchi

Pitcher of the Game: Javier Vazquez


Comments-[ comments.]

Tuesday, April 25, 2006

Seattle 4, Sox 3


The Sox are now 1-3 in one run games. The Sox have an interesting relationship with Jamie Moyer. They either kill him (i.e., score 6+ runs off of him), or he holds them down to 2 runs or less. At Safeco, he usually beats the Sox. Still, Brian Anderson made it exciting.

It was little ball that beat the Sox tonight - a bunt getting a runner into scoring position, and a stolen base in the 11th inning. It was not a lack of execution on the Sox's part so much as it was execution by the Mariners. McCarthy's 0-2 pitch to Betancourt was a pretty good one - it looked off the outside corner to me - but Betancourt did a nice job of slapping it into left field. It happens. Of course, since the Sox started the B team tonight (Ozuna LF, Cintron 3B, Mackowiak RF), it was going to be a bit harder than normal.

Batter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th B/R Total
Ozuna

0.62

0.12

-0.11

-0.17

0.13

-0.24

0.36

Iguchi

-0.45

-0.35

-0.24

-0.11

-0.24

-1.38

Thome

0.86

0.38

-0.17

-0.24

-0.17

0.66

Konerko

-0.31

-0.35

0.13

-0.17

0.13

-0.57

AJ

0.37

0.37

-0.24

0.13

-0.24

0.39

Uribe

-0.61

-0.31

-0.24

-0.24

-0.24

-1.63

Cintron

-0.24

-0.61

-0.17

-1.02

Crede

-0.24

-0.17

-0.41

Mackowiak

-0.17

-0.24

-0.11

-0.52

Dye

-0.17

-0.11

-0.28

Anderson

-0.32

-0.17

-0.24

1.00

0.27

Total

-4.12


Pitcher ERV
Garland

1.74

Politte

0.52

Cotts

0.52

McCarthy

-0.93

Total

1.84


Fielding: -0.61 (Garland errors (-0.11, -0.49)) (rounding).

Team ERV: 1.44 (Beltre error (0.44), Moyer wild pitches (0.14, 0.74), Rivera error (0.11)

Player of the Game: Jim Thome

Pitcher of the Game: Jon Garland


Comments-[ comments.]

Sunday, April 23, 2006

Sox 7, Minnesota 3


Well, it was a pleasant weekend, wasn't it? Not much to say about today's shellacking of the Twins, but I will leave you with the lamentations of their women.

Batter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th B/R Total
Pods

-0.24

0.62

-0.24

-0.17

-0.24

-0.26

Iguchi

0.27

0.68

-0.24

0.13

-0.24

0.61

Thome

-0.31

-0.27

-0.17

-0.24

-0.99

Konerko

-0.24

-0.31

-0.11

-0.24

-0.89

Dye

0.38

-0.24

-0.24

-0.17

-0.27

AJ

-0.35

-0.17

0.27

-0.11

-0.36

Crede

-0.31

1.00

0.37

0.38

1.43

Uribe

0.21

1.00

2.37

-0.35

3.22

Anderson

-0.44

0.13

1.00

-0.31

0.37

Total

2.87


Pitcher ERV
Contreras

2.13

Politte

-0.48

Total

1.65


Player of the Game: Juan Uribe

Pitcher of the Game: Jose Contreras


Comments-[ comments.]

2006 On Its Own


Vince Galloro has a thought-provoking post over at Exile in Wrigleyville asking Sox fans to stop comparing 2006 to 2005. Vince argues:
I'm not suggesting that we should forget about the 2005 season. Far from it. Every time I see little clips of last season's magic moments, I luxuriate in the memories. We waited a long time for those moments. But my advice is to avoid using the 2005 season as a prism through which to view the 2006 season. Every baseball season should be appreciated on its own merits. Like today, for instance, a sublimely beautiful spring day that I will spend, in part, in the right-center field stands at the Cell. Enjoy the game.

Vince is right. Every season should stand on its own, although teams should make efforts not to repeat the mistakes of previous years.

And it is true, the 2006 team has a much different feel than the 2005 variety. I've slowly got this feeling over the first few weeks of the season.

First, this team walks a lot more than the 2005 variety. I remarked on that fact
several times in early 2005, and Baseball Prospectus even had an article about it. The 2006 team, led by Jim Thome, walks a ton. Even Jermaine Dye - not someone who has walked at a high rate in his career - has 11 walks. Juan Uribe and Joe Crede both have four walks!

Second, the team is winning by large margins. The Sox, 12-5 overall, are 1-2 in one-run games. They are 5-2 in games decided by 2 runs or fewer - meaning that 10 of the 17 games they have played have been decided by 2 runs or more (Sox record - 7-3). It was the opposite
last year - 10 of the 17 games have been decided by 2 runs or fewer (Sox record 9-1).

Third, we have some sort of freaky new Joe Crede. Three strikeouts in 55 at bats? Wow. Joe has shown the ability before, but has had some serious breakdown months. Whether it was coming back from the injury, a new stance, or whatever, he's .342 / .383 / .624 since September 10, 2005.

Finally, and most importantly, the Sox have a dominant presence in the lineup in the form of Jim Thome. Last year's team had a bunch of average - to - above - average hitters, led by Paul Konerko (136 OPS+). Jim Thome looks like he has the possibility of producing a Frank-Thomas like season. Remember those? He influences everyone around him - Konerko gets more at bats with men on base, as does Jermaine Dye. Tadahito Iguchi gets better pitches to hit, and he has really responded.

More than anything, I get the impression that whereas the 2005 team needed a lot of things to go right for them to succeed, the 2006 team needs a lot of things to go wrong for them not to succeed. I hate to jinx, or to be overconfident, but that is my feeling at this point. The foundation seems very solid. Because Javier Vazquez is this team's fifth starter, the Sox have a favorable pitching matchup in almost every game this season. Indeed, the Santana vs. Buehrle matchup on Friday was probably the first time a clearly better hurler was on the mound for the other team. Other teams must feel this too - there is no rest for the wicked with this starting rotation.

So Vince is right - let 2005 go. You'll enjoy 2006 more. This team is better.


Comments-[ comments.]

Sox 9, Minnesota 2


Our cup overflows. The Sox beat Johan Santana and Brad Radke on consecutive nights, turning the 7-8 Twinkies into the 7-10 Twinkies. Thome continued his run-scoring streak and added a late-inning, victory-topping monster home run. Remember that Black Betsy's mantra is "Minnesota Twins delenda est," so all this is especially sweet. The Twins have very good pitching, but with the rise of the Tigers, they could be a fourth place team this year.

Jermaine Dye had a monster game - he was in +4 ERV territory until his long line out in the 8th inning. He still sets a since-I've-been-tracking Sox ERV record with a +3.93 territory. (By comparison, Alfonso Soriano's
3-homer, 1 double game on Friday was only a +4.20 ERV game).

After four starts this year, it seems pretty clear to me that Freddy Garcia's future is as a junkballer. His fastball never got past 90 mph on the WGN gun (at least that I saw), and he threw curveball after curveball. This is not the Freddy Garcia that the Sox gave a
3-year $27 million deal in 2004. Yet, the Herald stated that:
Sox starter Freddy Garcia (3-1) cruised through the Minnesota lineup much as Mark Buehrle did the night before. Garcia's velocity, which had dipped in previous starts, making the Sox a bit nervous last year's workload and this spring's World Baseball Classic had wore on his arm, was back. He permitted two runs and seven hits over 6 2/3 innings, walking one and striking out three.
Wha?? Was he watching the same Freddy Garcia as me? There was nothing about Garcia's "returned velocity" in the Trib or the Sun-Times.

Alright, enough rambling. You are here for the ERV boxscore / scoresheet anyway (note the high negative ERV value of Cintron's 1-2-3 DP in the 7th):

Batter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th B/R Total
Pods

-0.24

-0.32

0.13

-0.16

-0.61

-0.24

-1.43

Iguchi

0.27

0.98

-0.24

-0.61

0.38

0.78

Thome

-0.31

-0.35

0.27

0.12

1.62

1.35

Konerko

0.21

-0.24

0.37

-0.49

0.62

0.46

Dye

2.66

-0.17

1.50

0.38

-0.45

3.93

AJ

0.13

0.24

0.11

0.93

-0.32

1.09

Crede

-0.24

-0.35

0.08

0.65

0.14

Gload

-0.37

-0.37

Mackowiak

0.62

-0.24

-0.61

-0.22

Anderson

0.84

0.84

Cintron

-0.45

-0.17

0.38

-1.70

0.24

-1.70

Total

4.87


Pitcher ERV
Garcia

1.51

Logan

-0.34

McCarthy

0.96

Jenks

0.52

Total

2.65



Player of the Game: Jermaine Dye

Pitcher of the Game: Freddy Garcia


Comments-[ comments.]

Saturday, April 22, 2006

Who's Worth More? The Yankees or the Yankees?


I was noodling around Baseball-Reference.com today looking at salary information. I was idly trying to figure out who the top career salary earner was in MLB history. I was actually going page-by-page through the guys I thought would be in the mix, Bonds, A-Rod, Manny, etc. and noticed that they were mostly Yankees. Eventually, I stumbled across the actual list of most career earnings, and found out I was wasting about half of an hour of my time. But one question did pop into my head - who was worth more, the Yankees as a franchise, or the individual players themselves (using only baseball earnings). It was one of those questions that could only be answered by a blog.

We "know" from the recent Forbes report that the Yankee franchise is worth
$1.026 billion, up 8% from last year. Baseball-Reference.com also has the salaries of all Yankees players, with a few first-and-second-year player exceptions. So the answer is knowable.

Based on the Baseball-Reference.com data, the Yankees franchise is at least currently worth more than the Yankee players combined. Here's the salary chart of career earnings through the end of 2005:

PlayerSalary through 2005
Matt Smith$0
Robinson Cano $300,000*
Chien-Ming Wang $300,000*
Andy Phillips $317,200
Scott Proctor $600,000*
Bubba Crosby $624,350
Tanyon Sturtze $2,588,500
Miguel Cairo $3,975,000
Shawn Chacon $4,735,000
Kyle Farnsworth $5,065,000
Kelly Stinnett $5,706,500
Mike Myers$8,413,166
Ron Villone $8,934,000
Jaret Wright $16,331,667
Carl Pavano $17,562,500
Hideki Matsui $21,000,000
Jorge Posada $41,058,500
Johnny Damon $45,189,000
Jason Giambi $57,773,283
Mariano Rivera $63,530,125
Derek Jeter $97,430,000
Bernie Williams $101,600,001
Mike Mussina $103,392,167
Gary Sheffield $119,010,002
Alex Rodriguez $126,027,000
Randy Johnson $127,687,500
Total $979,150,461

* denotes estimated amount.

So the Yankee players are still about $46.8 million behind the Yankees franchise.

But that will change. The Yankees players are set to earn
$198,662,180 in salary this year, meaning that they will pass the Yankees franchise during 2006. But when? I know you were curious, too. The easy answer would be $46.8 million divided by $198.7 million, or 23.56% of the way through the season. Precisely, that would occur before the first out is made in the bottom of the 4th inning of game 39 of the season, against Texas on May 17th at Yankee Stadium.

But the simple calculation assumes that the Yankee franchise would not appreciate during 2006. If we assumed the same 8% appreciation from 2005 to 2006 during the 2006 season, the Yankees would actually be worth $1.045 billion by May 17th. So you have to adjust for the Yankee appreciation.

Dusting off a little high school algebra, I get an equation of $979 million (career earnings) plus $198.6 million (2006 salary) times X equals $1.026 billion (Yankee worth) + $1.026 billion times 8% (franchise worth increase) times X, or

$979 + $198.6x = $1.026 + $1.026(.08)x, or
$116.5x = $46.8, or
40.2% of the 2006 season,

which is 65.101 games, which is 65 games and 5 outs, which is after two outs in the bottom of the first in the Yankees' game against the Toons on Thursday, June 15th at Yankee Stadium.

Aren't you glad you knew this?


Comments-[ comments.]

Friday, April 21, 2006

Sox 7, Minnesota 1


Damn, it feels good to beat Santana. Sure, it took a former Toon to do it, but the Sox beat him. Adding to the pleasure was knocking Juan Rincon, the cheater, out of the box.

I was interested to note the value of Castro's error in the 8th was lower than what I had thought it would be. Castro's error scored two runs, but it also left the bases empty. Had he not made the error, the Sox would have had runners on second and third and nobody out - a 2.04 ERV situation. At the end of the day, it is a 2+.52-2.04 calculation, for a .48 run value.

Batter 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th B/R Total
Pods

-0.24

-0.31

-0.24

0.09

1.00

0.31

Iguchi

-0.17

-0.24

0.27

-0.44

-0.35

-0.93

Thome

-0.11

-0.24

1.73

0.38

1.77

Konerko

-0.24

-0.17

-0.17

0.57

-0.01

Dye

0.27

-0.11

0.13

1.57

1.86

Crede

-0.31

0.38

-0.24

0.38

0.21

AJ

-0.24

-0.21

0.38

0.57

0.51

Uribe

-0.24

-0.34

-0.35

-0.29

-1.21

Anderson

0.27

-0.35

-0.34

0.17

-0.25

Total

2.25


Pitcher ERV
Buehrle 3.13
Cotts 0.52
Total 3.65


Team ERV: 0.62 (Santana wild pitch (0.14), Castro error (0.48))

Player of the Game: Jermaine Dye

Pitcher of the Game: Mark Buehrle


Comments-[ comments.]

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