Monday, April 26, 2004

Schoeneweis Overexcitement Continues

Well, Peter Gammons has a blurb hyping Scott Schoeneweis:
The White Sox are convinced Scott Schoeneweis' cutter is so good he can get by on power sinkers and cutters, this year's version of Esteban Loaiza.

I'm not surprised at Gammons falling for Schoeneweis early - he tends to parrot whatever GM he's talked to this week tells him. And from his column, it's clear that he's talked to Kenny Williams this week (page at baseball reference smartly sponsored by one Don Kosin, although I think that may be a faux gauchaux).

More surprisingly, Baseball Prospectus has joined the early excitement, claiming that:
Scott Free: On the other hand, the "experiment" of moving Scott Schoeneweis into the starting rotation has turned out well so far. Schoeneweis was in top form in 6.2 scoreless innings against the Rays and he two decent starts against the vaunted Yankees offense. There is some cause for concern at this point with a seven-to-nine strikeout to walk ratio, but Schoeneweis's K-rate has been increasing steadily for several seasons, a nice compliment to his low walk-rate. The Sox knew that replacing Bartolo Colon would be difficult, but Schoeneweis has done an admirable job thus far and he didn't cost the Sox the buckets of cash that Colon or a comparable free agent pitcher was demanding on the market. There's little reason at this point to think that he can't continue to fill the role adequately.

Et tu, BP? Poor Schoeny is really jinxed now - he's got Gammons and the statheads behind him. I just think Schoeneweis hasn't proven anything yet. In fact, he's had very good stretches in the past, including a long one during the year 2001 - a year in which he still finished with a 5.08 ERA. I compiled a list of his stretches of 3 or more quality starts (3 runs or less, 6 or more IP):
9- 1-2000AT CHI A6.1726133104005.15
9- 6-2000AT DET A8227000206104.89
9-11-2000VS BAL A6.1628132204014.81

4- 3-2001AT TEX A7829033305013.86
4- 8-2001AT OAK A6325133603104.15
4-13-2001VS SEA A7.2832033315003.92
4-18-2001VS OAK A7.2630022103003.49
4-24-2001AT CLE A81034022205103.22
4-29-2001AT TOR A7531111402012.91

7-27-2001VS BAL A8935133103004.94
8- 1-2001AT BOS A7.2529022103104.80
8-10-2001VS TOR A7.2833133206104.74
8-16-2001AT DET A8531022101104.61

4-28-2002VS TOR A7729033303006.53
5- 4-2002AT TOR A7934043402016.03
5-10-2002VS CHI A7324000201105.08

So, you see, it's not altogether unheard of for Schoeneweis to put together decent stretches. And I'm not saying he CAN'T pitch better this year. I'm just saying its WAY too early to tell, and that Schoeneweis has been effective before, only to wind up really stinking the rest of the year.

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