Wednesday, April 21, 2004
Walking in the Minors
At one point, the White Sox had apparently bought into the concept of on base percentage. As Kenny Williams allegedly said before the 2002 campaign (from the Verducci article):
I hope that Kenny really did believe that, and makes it a priority to get players who have solid OBP. After all, OBP is highly correlated (statistical term) to
scoring runs.
Of course, batting average is important to OBP. Any particular player's OBP is going to be based in large part on his batting average (e.g., if a player has .250 average with a .350 OBP, 70+% of his times on base are due to hits).
However, because the vast majority of major league hitters fall within a narrow range of batting averages (.250 to .330 or so), walks become exceeding important to on base percentage. The leaders in OBP are generally the leaders in walks in any particular year.
[As an aside, those with good batting eyes also tend to be better hitters, because a higher percentage of the pitches they swing at are strikes, and they are in a higher percentage of situations (3-1, 2-0) where pitchers are likely to throw fastball strikes]
So how is Kenny doing in terms of drafting and promoting minor leaguers who show a tendency to draw walks? Doesn't look so good so far this year. Using 60 walks per year as an indicator of a "tendency to draw walks," here's who's walking [in bold] and not walking so far this year:
CHARLOTTE
BIRMINGHAM
BATTERS G AB BB bb/gm bb/162 bb/ab bb/500 ab
#Blakely, Darren 9 30 5 0.56 90.00 0.17 83.33
#Franklin, Micah 10 32 4 0.40 64.80 0.13 62.50
Maldonado, Carlos 6 20 3 0.50 81.00 0.15 75.00
McNeal, Aaron 10 39 1 0.10 16.20 0.03 12.82
Morse, Michael 8 28 1 0.13 20.25 0.04 17.86
*Murphy, Nate 10 34 2 0.20 32.40 0.06 29.41
#Reyes, Guillermo 5 14 2 0.40 64.80 0.14 71.43
Sasser, Rob 9 29 7 0.78 126.00 0.24 120.69
*Shaffer, Josh 3 10 1 0.33 54.00 0.10 50.00
Spidale, Mike 8 26 5 0.63 101.25 0.19 96.15
Stewart, Chris 7 22 1 0.14 23.14 0.05 22.73
#Yan, Ruddy 8 33 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
WINSTON-SALEM
BATTERS G AB BB bb/gm bb/162 bb/ab bb/500 ab
Amador, Chris 7 21 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Anderson, Brian 7 24 1 0.14 23.14 0.04 20.83
Becker, Brian 10 34 3 0.30 48.60 0.09 44.12
#Cameron, Troy 9 29 3 0.33 54.00 0.10 51.72
Lee, Carlos 5 16 1 0.20 32.40 0.06 31.25
Lopez, Pedro 10 38 1 0.10 16.20 0.03 13.16
*Martel, Normand 8 19 2 0.25 40.50 0.11 52.63
Myers, Mike 6 5 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
*Nanita, Ricardo 9 31 9 1.00 162.00 0.29 145.16
*Nicholson, Tommy 7 13 1 0.14 23.14 0.08 38.46
*Rogowski, Casey 9 24 3 0.33 54.00 0.13 62.50
Rosa, Wally 5 14 3 0.60 97.20 0.21 107.14
*Sweeney, Ryan 10 32 2 0.20 32.40 0.06 31.25
KANNAPOLIS
BATTERS G AB BB bb/gm bb/162 bb/ab bb/500 ab
*Bounds, Brandon 6 23 2 0.33 54.00 0.09 43.48
*Brice, Thomas 9 28 3 0.33 54.00 0.11 53.57
Gonzalez, Andy 9 33 4 0.44 72.00 0.12 60.61
Gray, Antoin 5 10 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kelly, Chris 5 16 1 0.20 32.40 0.06 31.25
*King, Clint 7 25 1 0.14 23.14 0.04 20.00
Lisk, Charlie 9 30 1 0.11 18.00 0.03 16.67
Molina, Gustavo 3 4 1 0.33 54.00 0.25 125.00
Morris, Seth 8 25 1 0.13 20.25 0.04 20.00
Schnurstein, Micah 8 29 1 0.13 20.25 0.03 17.24
Valido, Rob 9 35 1 0.11 18.00 0.03 14.29
Young, Chris 9 32 3 0.33 54.00 0.09 46.88
It's still early (stats through Monday), but these are not promising results. A lot of the high-walk minor leaguers are non-prospects like Bikowski and Nelson. It's also weird that a lot of the high-walkers are in Birmingham.
Anyway, it's something I will follow as the season progresses.
And, hopefully, I can figure out how to align stuff on the blogs. [Edit - I did just arrange the Charlotte stuff into a table, and boy is that a lot of work for little reward. There's got to be some sort of short cut]
Comments-[ comments.]
At one point, the White Sox had apparently bought into the concept of on base percentage. As Kenny Williams allegedly said before the 2002 campaign (from the Verducci article):
"We have the capability of scoring 950 runs," Williams said. "Teams that do that generally find themselves in the playoffs. When you get to that level all you need is decent pitching. Just decent. I'm a big believer, especially in this league, of getting guys on base and getting them in."
I hope that Kenny really did believe that, and makes it a priority to get players who have solid OBP. After all, OBP is highly correlated (statistical term) to
scoring runs.
Of course, batting average is important to OBP. Any particular player's OBP is going to be based in large part on his batting average (e.g., if a player has .250 average with a .350 OBP, 70+% of his times on base are due to hits).
However, because the vast majority of major league hitters fall within a narrow range of batting averages (.250 to .330 or so), walks become exceeding important to on base percentage. The leaders in OBP are generally the leaders in walks in any particular year.
[As an aside, those with good batting eyes also tend to be better hitters, because a higher percentage of the pitches they swing at are strikes, and they are in a higher percentage of situations (3-1, 2-0) where pitchers are likely to throw fastball strikes]
So how is Kenny doing in terms of drafting and promoting minor leaguers who show a tendency to draw walks? Doesn't look so good so far this year. Using 60 walks per year as an indicator of a "tendency to draw walks," here's who's walking [in bold] and not walking so far this year:
CHARLOTTE
| Batter | Games | AB | BB | BB/G | BB/162 | BB/AB | BB/500AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bell,Mike | 11 | 38 | 1 | 0.09 | 14.73 | 0.03 | 13.16 |
| Bikowski, Scott | 7 | 23 | 4 | 0.57 | 92.57 | 0.17 | 86.96 |
| Borchard, Joe | 12 | 47 | 3 | 0.25 | 40.50 | 0.06 | 31.91 |
| Burke, Jamie | 9 | 38 | 3 | 0.33 | 54.00 | 0.08 | 39.47 |
| Dransfeldt,Kelly | 12 | 34 | 4 | 0.33 | 54.00 | 0.12 | 58.82 |
| Hankins,Ryan | 5 | 18 | 1 | 0.20 | 32.40 | 0.06 | 27.78 |
| Nelson,Bryant | 12 | 48 | 6 | 0.50 | 81.00 | 0.13 | 62.50 |
| Paz,Rich | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Reed,Jeremy | 12 | 49 | 2 | 0.17 | 27.00 | 0.04 | 20.41 |
| Rivera,Mike | 10 | 37 | 3 | 0.30 | 48.60 | 0.08 | 40.54 |
| Smith,Bobby | 10 | 38 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Valenzuela,Mario | 7 | 22 | 1 | 0.14 | 23.14 | 0.05 | 22.73 |
BIRMINGHAM
BATTERS G AB BB bb/gm bb/162 bb/ab bb/500 ab
#Blakely, Darren 9 30 5 0.56 90.00 0.17 83.33
#Franklin, Micah 10 32 4 0.40 64.80 0.13 62.50
Maldonado, Carlos 6 20 3 0.50 81.00 0.15 75.00
McNeal, Aaron 10 39 1 0.10 16.20 0.03 12.82
Morse, Michael 8 28 1 0.13 20.25 0.04 17.86
*Murphy, Nate 10 34 2 0.20 32.40 0.06 29.41
#Reyes, Guillermo 5 14 2 0.40 64.80 0.14 71.43
Sasser, Rob 9 29 7 0.78 126.00 0.24 120.69
*Shaffer, Josh 3 10 1 0.33 54.00 0.10 50.00
Spidale, Mike 8 26 5 0.63 101.25 0.19 96.15
Stewart, Chris 7 22 1 0.14 23.14 0.05 22.73
#Yan, Ruddy 8 33 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
WINSTON-SALEM
BATTERS G AB BB bb/gm bb/162 bb/ab bb/500 ab
Amador, Chris 7 21 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Anderson, Brian 7 24 1 0.14 23.14 0.04 20.83
Becker, Brian 10 34 3 0.30 48.60 0.09 44.12
#Cameron, Troy 9 29 3 0.33 54.00 0.10 51.72
Lee, Carlos 5 16 1 0.20 32.40 0.06 31.25
Lopez, Pedro 10 38 1 0.10 16.20 0.03 13.16
*Martel, Normand 8 19 2 0.25 40.50 0.11 52.63
Myers, Mike 6 5 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
*Nanita, Ricardo 9 31 9 1.00 162.00 0.29 145.16
*Nicholson, Tommy 7 13 1 0.14 23.14 0.08 38.46
*Rogowski, Casey 9 24 3 0.33 54.00 0.13 62.50
Rosa, Wally 5 14 3 0.60 97.20 0.21 107.14
*Sweeney, Ryan 10 32 2 0.20 32.40 0.06 31.25
KANNAPOLIS
BATTERS G AB BB bb/gm bb/162 bb/ab bb/500 ab
*Bounds, Brandon 6 23 2 0.33 54.00 0.09 43.48
*Brice, Thomas 9 28 3 0.33 54.00 0.11 53.57
Gonzalez, Andy 9 33 4 0.44 72.00 0.12 60.61
Gray, Antoin 5 10 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kelly, Chris 5 16 1 0.20 32.40 0.06 31.25
*King, Clint 7 25 1 0.14 23.14 0.04 20.00
Lisk, Charlie 9 30 1 0.11 18.00 0.03 16.67
Molina, Gustavo 3 4 1 0.33 54.00 0.25 125.00
Morris, Seth 8 25 1 0.13 20.25 0.04 20.00
Schnurstein, Micah 8 29 1 0.13 20.25 0.03 17.24
Valido, Rob 9 35 1 0.11 18.00 0.03 14.29
Young, Chris 9 32 3 0.33 54.00 0.09 46.88
It's still early (stats through Monday), but these are not promising results. A lot of the high-walk minor leaguers are non-prospects like Bikowski and Nelson. It's also weird that a lot of the high-walkers are in Birmingham.
Anyway, it's something I will follow as the season progresses.
And, hopefully, I can figure out how to align stuff on the blogs. [Edit - I did just arrange the Charlotte stuff into a table, and boy is that a lot of work for little reward. There's got to be some sort of short cut]
Comments:
Post a Comment
