Wednesday, May 26, 2004
White Sox - Major League Walk Rate
The majority of these totals are very good news - the White Sox are generally improving their walk rates, and often by a substantial amount.
Willie Harris is 83% above his pre-2004 walk rate, Paul Konerko is 61% above, Carlos Lee is +50%, Juan Uribe is +57%, Rowand is +16%, Miguel Olivo is +11%, Magglio is -5%, and Joe Crede is -2%. Jose Valentin is down big, however, walking 30% less than his pre-2004 rate would suggest.
Even Big Frank is +43% above his already prodigous career walk rate.
Sox Offensive Production Improvement
The Sox's offensive production improvement over last year is probably less surprising given the walk rate numbers. The Sox's slugging percentage is .461 right now, up .015 over last year's .446 mark. OBP is up .020 to .351 from last year's .331 mark. Overall the Sox are scoring 5.56 runs per game, up from 4.88 last year - a 14% improvement.
Good news thus far through May. They still are 12-11 in May, a not-so-stellar month on its own. The question is whether the Sox's offense will stay as good or improve in June and July as it has in years past.
My thought was that the Sox had generally had really hot months in June and July over the past 3 years. But, in fact, that's not really the case. Other than a smoking hot July 2003, none of these numbers are really that much better than the Sox's performance in the first two months of this year (numbers are OBP/SLG/OPS):
The June 2003 numbers are surprising - only a .725 OPS - to generate a 15-13 record. But the OPS against was .675 in June 2003, which was indicative of some pretty good pitching.
But now add in August:
As you can see, August has been a very, very hot month (no pun intended) for the White Sox over the past few years. Let's just hope they can keep the hot summer trend up. Because the Twinkies have the hardest part of their schedule after the All-Star Break, just hanging around with them until the All-Star Break may allow the Sox to explode past them after it. My absolutely fearful prediction - if the Sox are tied or ahead at the All-Star Break, they'll win the division. Even if they are within a couple of games, I'd be optimistic
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| NAME | AB | BB | BB/AB | BB/500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Ordonez | 167 | 14 | 0.08 | 41.92 |
| Carlos Lee | 163 | 18 | 0.11 | 55.21 |
| Joe Crede | 151 | 8 | 0.05 | 26.49 |
| Paul Konerko | 149 | 21 | 0.14 | 70.47 |
| Juan Uribe | 149 | 12 | 0.08 | 40.27 |
| Frank Thomas | 133 | 40 | 0.30 | 150.38 |
| Willie Harris | 121 | 13 | 0.11 | 53.72 |
| Jose Valentin | 112 | 9 | 0.08 | 40.18 |
| Aaron Rowand | 103 | 7 | 0.07 | 33.98 |
| Miguel Olivo | 86 | 6 | 0.07 | 34.88 |
| S. Alomar Jr. | 63 | 4 | 0.06 | 31.75 |
| Timo Perez | 63 | 2 | 0.03 | 15.87 |
| Ross Gload | 54 | 3 | 0.06 | 27.78 |
| K. Dransfeldt | 18 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jamie Burke | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | 500.00 |
| White Sox | 1533 | 158 | 0.10 | 51.53 |
The majority of these totals are very good news - the White Sox are generally improving their walk rates, and often by a substantial amount.
Willie Harris is 83% above his pre-2004 walk rate, Paul Konerko is 61% above, Carlos Lee is +50%, Juan Uribe is +57%, Rowand is +16%, Miguel Olivo is +11%, Magglio is -5%, and Joe Crede is -2%. Jose Valentin is down big, however, walking 30% less than his pre-2004 rate would suggest.
Even Big Frank is +43% above his already prodigous career walk rate.
Sox Offensive Production Improvement
The Sox's offensive production improvement over last year is probably less surprising given the walk rate numbers. The Sox's slugging percentage is .461 right now, up .015 over last year's .446 mark. OBP is up .020 to .351 from last year's .331 mark. Overall the Sox are scoring 5.56 runs per game, up from 4.88 last year - a 14% improvement.
Good news thus far through May. They still are 12-11 in May, a not-so-stellar month on its own. The question is whether the Sox's offense will stay as good or improve in June and July as it has in years past.
My thought was that the Sox had generally had really hot months in June and July over the past 3 years. But, in fact, that's not really the case. Other than a smoking hot July 2003, none of these numbers are really that much better than the Sox's performance in the first two months of this year (numbers are OBP/SLG/OPS):
| Year | June | July |
|---|---|---|
| 2003 | .320/.405/.705 | .355/.517/.872 |
| 2002 | .338/.417/.755 | .339/.471/.810 |
| 2001 | .327/.457/.784 | .346/.444/.790 |
The June 2003 numbers are surprising - only a .725 OPS - to generate a 15-13 record. But the OPS against was .675 in June 2003, which was indicative of some pretty good pitching.
But now add in August:
| Year | June | July | August |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | .320/.405/.705 | .355/.517/.872 | .346/.499/.845 |
| 2002 | .338/.417/.755 | .339/.471/.810 | .334/.446/.780 |
| 2001 | .327/.457/.784 | .346/.444/.790 | .356/.513/.870
|
As you can see, August has been a very, very hot month (no pun intended) for the White Sox over the past few years. Let's just hope they can keep the hot summer trend up. Because the Twinkies have the hardest part of their schedule after the All-Star Break, just hanging around with them until the All-Star Break may allow the Sox to explode past them after it. My absolutely fearful prediction - if the Sox are tied or ahead at the All-Star Break, they'll win the division. Even if they are within a couple of games, I'd be optimistic
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