Tuesday, May 11, 2004

Willie Harris And His .327 Average

Yes, it's scary, I know. Willie has a .327 average after his 4 for 5 performance (with a walk) tonight. This, of course, is dramatically higher than his .213/.255/.265 career line.

His average has come largely without power - he's got a handful of doubles and no triples or homers. His isolated power number (slugging minus batting average) is below .100 at this point, which is pretty consistent with his career.

So how can Willie be valuable to the White Sox? He's pretty much got to hit .300 and get on base 35-36% of the time. Assuming he slugs .400 with a .300 average, he would still only have an OPS of .750. Even assuming that OBP is worth 40% more than SLG, an adjusted OPS of .880 or so isn't any more valuable than Jose Valentin.

The trouble is that besides this last week, Willie hasn't shown any ability to hit .300. So, if he keeps it up, great. But I'm not sold on Willie just yet.

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