Thursday, June 03, 2004
Billy Botch
Just for the hell of it, I tried to track down every game that Billy Koch has entered with the Sox holding a 1-run lead. It looks like it has happened eleven times over his Sox career. And, to my surprise, he's held the lead 9 of the 12 chances:
I'd be interested in seeing if anyone could find any others. 9 for 12 is not good (reliable closers are have 90+% save rates), but it isn't as terrible as I thought. Right now, Billy Koch is 18 of 24 in his save opportunities for the White Sox, meaning that he's only 9 of 12 with 2+ run leads as well. Being only a 75% bet when you've got a 2-run lead is horrendous. (By the way, the difference between a 75% and a 90% save rate over a 162-game season - assuming 36 save opportunities - is 5 wins)
The Sox need a 90+% closer. Now.
Comments-[ comments.]
Just for the hell of it, I tried to track down every game that Billy Koch has entered with the Sox holding a 1-run lead. It looks like it has happened eleven times over his Sox career. And, to my surprise, he's held the lead 9 of the 12 chances:
| Date | Score at Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|
| April 3, 2003 | 6-5 | Blown Save |
| April 15, 2003 | 5-4 | Blown Save |
| April 13, 2003 | 3-2 | Save |
| May 13, 2003 | 1-0 | Save |
| May 21, 2003 | 6-5 | Save |
| May 29, 2003 | 3-2 | Save |
| June 14, 2003 | 6-5 | Save |
| June 24, 2003 | 2-1 | Save |
| April 7, 2004 | 4-3 | Save |
| May 2, 2004 | 3-2 | Save |
| May 13, 2004 | 6-5 | Save |
| June 2, 2004 | 2-1 | Blown Save |
I'd be interested in seeing if anyone could find any others. 9 for 12 is not good (reliable closers are have 90+% save rates), but it isn't as terrible as I thought. Right now, Billy Koch is 18 of 24 in his save opportunities for the White Sox, meaning that he's only 9 of 12 with 2+ run leads as well. Being only a 75% bet when you've got a 2-run lead is horrendous. (By the way, the difference between a 75% and a 90% save rate over a 162-game season - assuming 36 save opportunities - is 5 wins)
The Sox need a 90+% closer. Now.
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