Sunday, June 27, 2004
The Deal Is Done - Freddy Garcia To The White Sox
I just heard on the radio that the Sox have traded Miguel Olivo, Jeremy Reed and Michael Morse for Freddy Garcia,Ben Davis, and my favorite player, Cash.
It's an interesting deal. Jeremy Reed was, obviously, a quality player in the White Sox system, hitting .400 in half a season with power at Birmingham last year. He was hitting in the high .270's with 8 HR in Charlotte this year. He also led Charlotte in walks and was getting on base about 36% of the time. He'll be missed, and the Sox's system will be worse off without him.
Miguel Olivo, as the Sox's starting catcher, will be a void to fill. Ben Davis, who came over in the trade, has never hit very well at the major league level, and is not a long-term solution at the catching position. The Sox now don't have a long-term solution at catcher in their system. Miguel was hitting very well this year - especially against lefties. I like Miguel a lot (so did Kenny Williams, apparently - he said it was the toughest conversation he's had when he let Miguel know he was traded).
Michael Morse is an interesting prospect. He didn't show much hitting potential before this year, but as I've detailed before he's show some ability this year. He's a tall (6'4") shortstop prospect who might fill out and be a shortstop who hits 30 homers a year. We'll see if he continues to progress inthe Seattle system.
Ben Davis is only a throw-in in this deal. He's got a career .237/.310/.362 line, peaking out at .259/.313/.404 with Seattle in 2002. He was a little better away from Safeco, with a .259/.327/.433 line away from Seattle from 2001-2003. If that's his level of production, OK, then he's a stopgap solution.
Garcia is clearly the jewel of the deal. He's 4-7 so far this season, but with a 3.20 ERA and a WHIP of 1.20. He's striking out about 7 per 9 innings, against about 3 walks per 9. Safeco has helped him out - he's got a 2.61 ERA at home and a 3.91 ERA on the road. Most troublingly, he's got a groundball/flyball ratio of only 1.02. Being a flyball pitcher in U.S. Cellular has not been a good thing this year. Just ask Esteban Loaiza (a 1.1 GB/FB ration and 18 HR - 12 HR at the Cell).
Overall, this is a high risk deal. If Garcia goes 10-2 the rest of the way and leads the Sox into the World Series, it's a big success. If Garcia goes 9-3 and leads the Sox into the ALCS and signs an extension for a reasonable amount of money, it's a success. A rotation with Garcia, Buerhle, Loaiza, Garland and Schoeneweis is the best in the AL Central by a couple of lengths. The top isn't as good as the Red Sox rotation with Schilling and Pedro, but the bottom end isn't too shabby. It also forces Garland down to a more natural 4 spot, and Schoeneweis to a 5 spot. It's not clear where it leaves Jon Rauch. The Sox might be wise to keep him as a long man, or leave him in the rotation and put Schoeneweis in the pen where he excelled with the Angels.
I think this puts any Ordonez/Andrew Jones/Russ Ortiz deal on hold. The next logical step is to trade Rauch or Diaz for relief help.
Comments-[ comments.]
I just heard on the radio that the Sox have traded Miguel Olivo, Jeremy Reed and Michael Morse for Freddy Garcia,Ben Davis, and my favorite player, Cash.
It's an interesting deal. Jeremy Reed was, obviously, a quality player in the White Sox system, hitting .400 in half a season with power at Birmingham last year. He was hitting in the high .270's with 8 HR in Charlotte this year. He also led Charlotte in walks and was getting on base about 36% of the time. He'll be missed, and the Sox's system will be worse off without him.
Miguel Olivo, as the Sox's starting catcher, will be a void to fill. Ben Davis, who came over in the trade, has never hit very well at the major league level, and is not a long-term solution at the catching position. The Sox now don't have a long-term solution at catcher in their system. Miguel was hitting very well this year - especially against lefties. I like Miguel a lot (so did Kenny Williams, apparently - he said it was the toughest conversation he's had when he let Miguel know he was traded).
Michael Morse is an interesting prospect. He didn't show much hitting potential before this year, but as I've detailed before he's show some ability this year. He's a tall (6'4") shortstop prospect who might fill out and be a shortstop who hits 30 homers a year. We'll see if he continues to progress inthe Seattle system.
Ben Davis is only a throw-in in this deal. He's got a career .237/.310/.362 line, peaking out at .259/.313/.404 with Seattle in 2002. He was a little better away from Safeco, with a .259/.327/.433 line away from Seattle from 2001-2003. If that's his level of production, OK, then he's a stopgap solution.
Garcia is clearly the jewel of the deal. He's 4-7 so far this season, but with a 3.20 ERA and a WHIP of 1.20. He's striking out about 7 per 9 innings, against about 3 walks per 9. Safeco has helped him out - he's got a 2.61 ERA at home and a 3.91 ERA on the road. Most troublingly, he's got a groundball/flyball ratio of only 1.02. Being a flyball pitcher in U.S. Cellular has not been a good thing this year. Just ask Esteban Loaiza (a 1.1 GB/FB ration and 18 HR - 12 HR at the Cell).
Overall, this is a high risk deal. If Garcia goes 10-2 the rest of the way and leads the Sox into the World Series, it's a big success. If Garcia goes 9-3 and leads the Sox into the ALCS and signs an extension for a reasonable amount of money, it's a success. A rotation with Garcia, Buerhle, Loaiza, Garland and Schoeneweis is the best in the AL Central by a couple of lengths. The top isn't as good as the Red Sox rotation with Schilling and Pedro, but the bottom end isn't too shabby. It also forces Garland down to a more natural 4 spot, and Schoeneweis to a 5 spot. It's not clear where it leaves Jon Rauch. The Sox might be wise to keep him as a long man, or leave him in the rotation and put Schoeneweis in the pen where he excelled with the Angels.
I think this puts any Ordonez/Andrew Jones/Russ Ortiz deal on hold. The next logical step is to trade Rauch or Diaz for relief help.
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