Saturday, June 05, 2004

Further Thoughts On Jon Garland's Development

Average game scores for Garland
2004: 52
2003: 49
2003: 48

That seems like a gradual improvement for Garland, but you have to dig a little deeper to see that Garland has matured (numbers are the starts with particular game scores):

2004 20032002

What I draw from this table is that Garland really isn't having more very good games this year - it seems like every three games, he pitches a really good one - but that he is pitching fewer really poor games (game scores of 39 or less).

So why Garland is better this year is that he's keeping the White Sox in more games, and getting blown out less often. This will mean the Sox will lose fewer games he starts. By consequence, he should go from a .450-.500 pitcher to something like a .550-.600 pitcher, which really makes him a solid 2/3 starter.

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