Wednesday, June 30, 2004

Twinkies Strength-of-Schedule vs. Sox Strength-of-Schedule

I've recalculated the Twinkies' and Sox's strength of schedule for the rest of the year based on Baseball Prospectus' "Adjusted Standings" third-order winning percentage. Right now, the schedule for the rest of the year appears pretty equal between the Sox and the Twins. But the Twinkies have an especially easy stretch coming up before and just after the All-Star Break (Arizona 3, Kansas City 7, Detroit 6), while the Sox play a tougher patch (Cubs 3, Anaheim 3, Seattle 3, Oakland 4, Texas 2). But once you get past that point, July 20th, I calculate that the Sox's schedule is two games easier than the Twinkies - a huge difference over a 70-game stretch.

By the time July 20th will have rolled around:

The Twins will have played 16 of 19 against KC, the Sox 5 of 19.
The Twins will have played 15 of 19 against DET, the Sox 0 of 19.
The Twins will have played 6 of 19 against CLE, the Sox 9 of 19.

With Cleveland playing really well lately, and going into the second half, they may hurt the Twins more than anything.

From that point on, the respective schedules break down like this:
Teamvs. Eastvs. Centralvs. West
White Sox

I'd say that breaks the Sox way a little bit, wouldn't you?

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