Friday, July 23, 2004
Magglio's Knee Cannot Be Underestimated
It is not melodramatic to say that the White Sox's 2004 season hinges (no
pun intended) on the prognosis of Magglio Ordonez's left knee. If Ordonez
is lost for the year or for a significant period of time, it is unlikely
that the Sox will be able to keep pace with and then overtake the Minnesota
Twins for the division title. There would simply be too many big holes in
the lineup to work around, even with the presence of Carl Everett. Let's
look at it from a runs created per 27 outs perspective.
Here's the fully-healthy Sox lineup:
Yep, that's a 6-runs-per game lineup. That's an AL Central Championship lineup. Now swap out Frank and Maggs for Timo Perez and Carl Everett (using Carl's 2nd-half 2003 performance for the Sox):
That's more than half a run per game less - even assuming that Carl Everett posts .301/.377/.473 numbers like he did last year. Over the course of the last 70 games, that's 35 fewer runs, which translates (roughly) into
3-5 fewer wins. That's enough to push the Twins ahead of the White Sox, even despite the Sox's easier schedule.
So, let's all hope for the best with Magglio's knee, shall we?
FURTHER THOUGHT
Now that Magglio is out, for all intents and purposes, for the rest of the year, I've seen what kind of replacements the Sox would need to make themselves whole offensively to account for the loss of Frank Thomas and Magglio Ordonez. It's really nothing short of remarkable - the Sox would need Carlos Beltran (7.15 RC/27) and Jason Kendall (5.51 RC/27) just to make up for the loss of Big Frank and Maggs. Ouch.
Comments-[ comments.]
pun intended) on the prognosis of Magglio Ordonez's left knee. If Ordonez
is lost for the year or for a significant period of time, it is unlikely
that the Sox will be able to keep pace with and then overtake the Minnesota
Twins for the division title. There would simply be too many big holes in
the lineup to work around, even with the presence of Carl Everett. Let's
look at it from a runs created per 27 outs perspective.
Here's the fully-healthy Sox lineup:
| Player | Pos. | RC/27 |
|---|---|---|
| Rowand | CF | 6.99 |
| Valentin | SS | 6.01 |
| Ordonez | RF | 5.93 |
| Thomas | DH | 9.03(!) |
| Konerko | 1B | 7.05 |
| Lee | LF | 6.78 |
| Crede | 3B | 3.79 |
| Uribe | 2B | 5.02 |
| Alomar | C | 3.48 |
| Average | 6.01 |
Yep, that's a 6-runs-per game lineup. That's an AL Central Championship lineup. Now swap out Frank and Maggs for Timo Perez and Carl Everett (using Carl's 2nd-half 2003 performance for the Sox):
| Player | Pos. | RC/27 |
|---|---|---|
| Rowand | CF | 6.99 |
| Valentin | SS | 6.01 |
| Perez | RF | 3.47 |
| Everett | DH | 6.45 |
| Konerko | 1B | 7.05 |
| Lee | LF | 6.78 |
| Crede | 3B | 3.79 |
| Uribe | 2B | 5.02 |
| Alomar | C | 3.48 |
| Average | 5.45 |
That's more than half a run per game less - even assuming that Carl Everett posts .301/.377/.473 numbers like he did last year. Over the course of the last 70 games, that's 35 fewer runs, which translates (roughly) into
3-5 fewer wins. That's enough to push the Twins ahead of the White Sox, even despite the Sox's easier schedule.
So, let's all hope for the best with Magglio's knee, shall we?
FURTHER THOUGHT
Now that Magglio is out, for all intents and purposes, for the rest of the year, I've seen what kind of replacements the Sox would need to make themselves whole offensively to account for the loss of Frank Thomas and Magglio Ordonez. It's really nothing short of remarkable - the Sox would need Carlos Beltran (7.15 RC/27) and Jason Kendall (5.51 RC/27) just to make up for the loss of Big Frank and Maggs. Ouch.
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