Sunday, November 28, 2004

New Sox for Nomar?

Phil Rogers has a blurb in today's Tribune indicating that the White Sox may have an interest in Nomar Garciaparra:
The White Sox were interested in Nomar Garciaparra a year ago. Some believe they are making another push, but they have gone underground since failing to sign Omar Vizquel.

I wouldn't mind Nomar on the Sox next year. Although he was injured for much of the season, he still managed a VORP of 28.2 between the Red Sox and Cubs. On its own, that would be behind Vizquel, Lugo, Jeter, Young, Carlos Guillen and Miguel Tejada in the AL. Adjust for 550 plate appearances, and he would have a VORP of 43.8, which would bump him ahead of Vizquel and Lugo. Adjust to 650 plate appearances, and his VORP is 51.8, which is still behind Jeter, Young, Guillen and Tejada, but still solid.

By comparison, the White Sox shortstops - Valentin, Dransfeldt and Wilson Valdez had a total VORP of 13.6. aseball Prospectus credits Uribe as a 2B only, although he probably added 5-6 points of VORP as a SS. Let's call it a total VORP of 20 for White Sox shortstops.

If the Sox sign Nomar, they probably add 30 runs over the course of the season. That should be worth another 2.5 games in the standings (according to the Pythagorean record theory). Add in another 300 plate appearances by a healthy Frank Thomas (34.2 VORP in 311 PA last year), and you've added another 30 runs and another 2.5 wins. I would suggest that adding Nomar and bring back a healthy Frank Thomas would add 5 wins to the Sox next year - bringing them up to 88 or 89 wins.

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