Black Betsy

Uh-Oh

And I don't mean that in the Darrin Jackson calling a home run sense. Although I've been taking much glee at the demise of the Yankees this year, they are far, far from dead. Since they hit their nadir on May 6th (11-19), here are the standings in the American League:

Team	W	L	PCT
White Sox	35	19	0.648
Yankees	33	20	0.623
Angels	34	22	0.607
Indians	34	23	0.596
Red Sox	31	24	0.564
Rangers	28	25	0.528
Twins	29	26	0.527
Blue Jays	28	27	0.509
Tigers	28	27	0.509
Athletics	27	28	0.491
Orioles	26	30	0.464
Mariners	24	31	0.436
Royals	22	33	0.400
Devil Rays	16	40	0.286

As you can see, there's quite a bit of fight left in the Yankees, and 30 games into the season was far too early to think that they were dead. Playing .623 baseball over the last 132 games of the season would get the Yankees to 93 wins.

In case you had not noticed, the other contenders in the AL East have not exactly been setting the world on fire, either. The Orioles have sputtered after a terrific start and look destined for third place. The Red Sox, although in first place with a 3 game lead, are at pace that will not get them well past 93 wins. Indeed, with Keith Foulke regaining his Keith Choulke title, and Schilling being slow to come back from injury, I would not be shocked to see the Yankees in first place by August. Heck, they could be in first place a week after the All Star break.

This all speaks to how the White Sox might approach (I hate to say the word too soon) the playoffs. If the Yankees and Red Sox are going to be involved, they need to have someone better than Jose Contreras starting game four of a series. It would be great for the Sox to pick up another playoff-proven, #2 type starter, and it's time to start thinking about the price of losing in the playoffs. Kenny Williams repeated "1917" a bunch of times last year - it's time to see whether we can pick up a guy who can bring us to the promised land this year.

The Hawkster

Roads To Hoe

Not quite sure why you would hoe a road, but someone pointed me to this post on AaronGleeman's blog that analyzes the Twinkies' remaining schedule. As you can see, Gleeman is less than gleeful about the Twinkies' slate of games, particularly lamenting the 10 games that the Twinkies will be playing against the Oakland Athletics in the second half.

I was thinking about posting an analysis of the Sox's second half schedule myself, so this is a good chance to compare the two schedules:

Now, the Twinks may have more games against the currently-hot A's, but the Sox still have their full slate against the Yankees and Red Sox left (12 games). The Sox also have more games against the Jndjans left, and they are the best of the other AL Central teams. Happily, the Sox have played the Toons well, going 6-3 thus far in 2005 (although this is, in fact, the WORST record the Sox have against any AL Central team).

It's all going to come down to how the Sox play against the Twinkies. The 13 games the Sox have against the Twins in the second half actually maximizes the chances of a Twinkie comeback - there's no better way to make up ground than through zero-sum games. If the Twinkies went 11-2 against the Sox, they would essentially make up all the ground they need to make up in their chase.

Historically, the Sox have fared poorly against the Twins in the second half.

In 2004, the Sox went 2-7 against the Twinkies in the second half. Going 7-2 would have won the Sox the division (hypothetical 88-74 versus a hypothetical 87-75).

In 2003, the Sox went 2-5 against the Twinks after the All-Star Break. Going 5-2 would have won the Sox the division (hypothetical 89-73 versus as hypothetical 87-75).

In 2002, the Sox went 5-9 against the Twins after the All-Star Break. They were pretty far back in 2002 - they would have needed to go 12-2 against the Twins to beat them out for the AL Central.

In 2001, the Sox went 3-3 against the Twins after the All Star Break. Since the Jndjans won the Central, no amount of wins agains the Twinks would have helped. But that 3-3 record has been the best the Sox could muster over the last four years.

If the Sox can beat the Twinkies 6 of their 13 meetings, the Twinks will have to gain 8.5 games over the Sox in their other 68 games....which is a pretty tall task. But even a 4-9 collapse versus the Twins is damaging in its own right - it allows the Twinkies to make up only 4.5 games against the rest of the league - a very manageable task.

The best thing the Sox can do, of course, is to build up a 14 game lead over the Twinkies by the time they meet in mid-August (34 games from now), making those Twins games less critical.

Mid-Season Grades

This post mostly started as a response to this thread at Soxtalk.com asking for mid-season grades. It got long, so I figured that I would just post it here. For some reason, the boring, overused topic of "midseason grades" intrigued me this year.

I'll go by position, then through the staff.

Position Players

AJ Pierzynski - A+ defensively, B+ hitting.
Outstanding game calling skills, good d, career high homers and clutch hits make up for lowest batting average in career.

Chris Widger - B defensively, A- hitting.
Can't ask for much more from a backup catcher.

Paul Konerko - B defensively, B+ hitting
Paulie's been at his career norms on defense, and his newfound patience makes up for a lower than usual average. Looking for great second half from Kong.

Tadahito Iguchi - B+ defensively, B+ hitting
Has been a pleasant surprise, but average dipping. He's been solid but not spectacular in the field.

Willie Harris – A defensively, D+ offensively. A credit to Willie – he has stepped in with his glove when asked and played excellent defense. He still has no power whatsoever, and isn’t getting on base enough in his limited at bats.

Juan Uribe - A- defensively, D hitting.
Glove work has been sparkling at times, usually great. He has yet to get hot hitting wise - and whe he does, he'll be dangerous. Still, he's made a lot of outs in the first half.

Joe Crede - A defensively, C- hitting
At least Joe doesn't take his lackluster hitting performance to the field. We are, unfortunately, probably seeing the real Joe Crede at the plate.

Scott Podsednik - C- defensively (center), A- defensively (left), A- offensively. He's playing a great defensive left field, but is not playing so well in his short stints in center. Offensively, his OBP and his steals are his offensive contribution. Very little power - therefore he gets a lower grade.

Aaron Rowand - A- defensively, C+ offensively.
He's played a very good but not great CF, and has been disappointing but not horrible at the plate. Where's the power, Aaron?

Jermaine Dye – C- defensively, A- offensively
Looking pretty bad in the field at times, without the good arm we thought he had. At the plate, his power has been very good, but otherwise has only a decent average and low plate discipline.

Carl Everett- B- defensively, B+ offensively. Has shown he can still play the field, although he does make the defense worse. Offensively, his stats are OK, but his carriage of the team in the early season warrants mention.

Frank Thomas - INC defensively, B+ offensively. The Big Hurt is swinging hard and connecting – but a little too infrequently. Still taking his walks, Thomas needs to get his average up to about .270 to really, really help the Sox in the second half.

Timo Perez – B defensively, D- offensively. He’s taking up a roster spot that belongs to Ross Gload.

Pablo Ozuna – B+ defensively, B+ offensively. Pablo has gotten hits when he’s had the chance, and is able to fill in all around the diamond. No power, but his .354 OBP isn’t too shabby.

Pitchers

Mark Buehrle – A. He’s having his best season so far, with a decent strikeout rate and excellent walk rate. His mid-2’s ERA are very welcome and he’s eating innings like Pac-Man.

Jon Garland – A+ He was a league average pitcher for the last 3 years. So he gets an A+ only because of where he came from, not where he is. He’s still only the third best starter on the Sox after Buehrle and Garcia. His emergence, however, is why the Sox are 55-26 at this point.

Jose Contreras – C- He’s tough to watch. He’s 3-5 on a team that is 55-26, meaning that he’s pretty much doing everything in his power NOT to win games. The walks and lack of confidence in his 95+ mph fastball are getting really, really old.

Orlando Hernandez – C+ He would get an A for his 7-2 record, but a D for his 4.88 ERA and an F for his injury shenanigans and his 1.63 WHIP. Overall, that’s a C.

Cliff Politte – A+ Wow. What a first half. Perfect record, microscopic ERA and WHIP.

Dustin Hermanson – A- I can’t argue with 20 for 21 in the saves department and a sub-2.00 ERA. I’m not too excited about his low strikeout rate and high-wire act in allowing baserunners.

Damaso Marte – B- Perhaps it is overuse, but Damaso has not looked sharp this year. He is on the DL, and hopefully all of problems are related to his injuries. If Damaso performs at his 2003-2004 level when he comes back from the DL, the Sox bullpen will be solid.

Luis Vizcaino – D+ He was a gascan early in the year, but has improved over the last five or six weeks. He had a 2.25 ERA in June after a 7.43 April and 5.23 May.

Shingo Takatsu – C Shingo lost his closer job because of a lot of close calls and the fact that Hermanson needed to bail him out a couple of times. He still was 8 for 9 in save opportunities. Takatsu is giving up the long ball like no one’s business this year, although he has improved dramatically, a la Vizcaino, over the last six weeks. He had an 8.10 ERA in April, a 5.87 May , and a 0.96 ERA in June. So far in July, he’s had an 8.10 ERA. Gulp.

Neal Cotts – A- Neal has gone from a long man to a reasonably reliable set up man. The key has been that he has walked only 13 men in 30 innings, which is much better than his walk rate last year or the year before. On the same note, he’s still striking out about a batter per inning. Cotts’ development is one of the nicer surprises for the Sox this year. But for them to go 55-26, a lot of things like Neal Cotts have to go right.

Brandon McCarthy- D God love him, he destroyed the minors last year, but isn’t ready. He needs to get his change over for strikes or develop a new pitch (cutter? slider?) to pitch effectively in the major leagues.

Kevin Walker – F Get off the roster. Now!