Friday, October 28, 2005

The Playoffs - Hitters' ERV Scoring

To put a bow on top of the Sox's World Series Championship, I went through all of the playoffs to figure out which of the Sox hitters added the most value in terms of expected runs.

If you are not familiar with ERV scoring, it is measured by the amount of expected runs added by a player in each of his plate appearances. For example, when a player comes up with men on first and second and one out, his team is expecting to score .9142 runs. If he makes an out without moving the runners over, the team can now expect to score .4435 runs that inning, meaning that the batter has cost the team .4707 runs. Thus, the batter is credited with -.4707 runs.

Here are the White Sox expected runs, by series, and cumulatively throughout the playoffs:

Player ALDS ALCS WS Totals
Podsednik 1.6694 0.0911 -1.5497 0.2108
Iguchi 1.9448 -2.532 -3.2085 -3.7957
Dye -0.1946 -0.0171 2.5655 2.3538
Konerko 0.8914 1.9567 1.8714 4.7195
Everett -0.9994 -0.6971 -0.774 -2.4705
Rowand 1.9679 -3.1576 -2.3475 -3.5372
Pierzynski 4.4636 -1.6909 -0.4108 2.3619
Crede -1.9471 2.9366 1.9198 2.9093
Uribe 0.887 -1.2333 -0.3131 -0.6594
Harris 1 0 0.5231 1.5231
Perez -0.4707 0 -0.4435 -0.9142
Blum -0.4435 0 1 0.5565
Ozuna 0 0.1132 0 0.1132
Garland 0 0 -0.8223 -0.8223
Garcia 0 0 -0.2796 -0.2796
Widger 0 0 1.2729 1.2729

Note - this chart covers only hitting and baserunning, and does not attempt to cover fielding. Joe Crede's numbers would likely go up if you count some of the plays he made in the field.

There a few interesting things about the chart. Paul Konerko is the MickeyMantle award winner - his 4.7 ERV was almost 2 runs better than second-place Joe Crede. After Crede, Pierzynski and Dye are neck and neck for #3 and #4.

Shockingly, Willie Harris provided the 5th highest ERV for the Sox in the playoffs. Some of that is misleading, because he provided 1 ERV worth of value for his pinch hit single in the 14-2 blowout in Game 1 of the ALDS. Chris Widger has 1.27 of ERV - good for 6th best - on the strength of a couple of walks in Game 3 of the World Series, one of which scored a run.

Tadahito Iguchi was the worst player offensively, as just about everyone recognized his struggles in the playoffs. But Rowand was just about as bad, mostly because he hit into some really bad double plays.

On the base running side, the Sox cost themselves quite a few runs. Podsednik actually cost the Sox 0.59 runs on the bases by getting caught on the bases a few times. Overall, between Uribe getting caught off second by Pettite in Game 2, Rowand running into an out at the plate in Game 2 of the ALCS, or Podsednik getting caught twice in the ALDS, the Sox cost themselves 3.5 runs with their baserunning in the playoffs. Luckily, none of this baserunning cost the White Sox a ball game, except for perhaps the baserunning in Game 1 of the ALCS (-1.05 runs as a result of Podsednik and Pierzynski's caught stealing).

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