Black Betsy

The Value of 8 Good Starts

I just noticed that we are coming up on the one-year anniversary of the end of Jon Garland's hot start to the 2005 season, in which he won his first eight starts. Those were heady days. Garland cooled off considerably from that point, going 10-10 the rest of the way with a 3.90 ERA to finish with an 18-10 record and an overall 3.50 ERA.

During the offseason, Garland signed a 3 year, $29 million contract extension based on his very good 2005 season.

Last year, I mused that Sox fans have been fooled by hot starts by mediocre pitchers before. And I compared - perhaps flippantly - Jon Garland's hot start to that of Jon Snyder in 1999. Snyder collapsed to the tune of a 6+ ERA and was basically never heard from again.

But there is a lesson to be learned from Snyder's collapse, and it is shown in Garland's performance since his perfecto start last year. Since May 23rd last year, Garland's line has been this:

13-12 W-L, 212 1/3 IP, 231 Hits, 105 ER, 33 HR, 47 BB, 112 K, 4.45 ERA

Does that remind you of anyone? Like the Jon Garland of 2002-2004? With the exception of the walk column, the Jon Garland since 5/23/05 has been the Jon Garland of 2002-2004. Almost exactly what you would expect.

It's not that Garland is incapable of being a good pitcher. But it's also true that if Garland is really nothing more than he was in 2002-2004 and 5/23/2005 through today, it's also entirely possible that he could have a good, 8-start run like he did in early 2005 and have it be no more than a fluke. Indeed, given a long career, every pitcher has bouts of respectability, even quality.

But it's another thing to turn that bout of respectability into $29 million over three years. I think Sox fans should have been more critical of the Garland contract, and I guess I regret not being more critical myself. I have a feeling it is going to wind up being a bad deal. $11 million per year in 2007-2008 for a league-average pitcher.

Blowing Leads, and the Bullpen

I wrote a detailed response to someone's point on the Sox e-mail list, so I thought I'd cross-post here:

From: Big Unit
To: Sox e-Mail Listserv

What bothers me is the Sox have blown enough games already to have opened up
a pretty good lead, despite Detroit's hot start.

From: Comic Book Guy
To: Sox e-Mail Listserv

Blown enough games?

Aren't they 20-9?

From: SuperNoVa
To: Sox e-Mail Listserv

Well, the odd thing is that they've blown big or late leads in a bunch of
their 9 losses:

Game 2 vs. Cleveland (up 1 in the 8th, Logan serves up tying dinger to
Pronk)
Game 3 vs. Royals (up 6-0 in the 5th inning, Garland blows big lead)
Game 4 vs. Royals (up 1 in the 8th, Politte serves up 2-run homer to
Sweeney)
Game 10 vs. Blue Jays (up 5-2 in the 4th, Vazquez gets hammered)
Game 29 vs. Kansas City (up 1 in the 9th, Jenks blows save)

So of the 9 losses, the Sox blew big leads (3 or more runs) or late leads 5
of those 9 games. This team is 20-9, but it could easily be 25-4.

I take this as a good thing and a bad thing. The Sox are so good that they
have a chance to win almost every game they are in. If you are "in" 25 out
of 29 games, losing 5 of those 25 isn't bad at all. Seems about par to me.
Great teams are "in" almost every game.

It's a bad thing inasmuch as the bullpen looks like the Achilles' heel of this team. They need bullpen help relatively soon. Right now, only Jenks and Cotts look anything like reliable relievers. Shoot, I'd settle for someone like Luis Vizcaino right now.

The Sox have some assets in AAA - think Chuck Haeger (<0.70>

April ERV

The Sox wrapped up the month of April 17-7. They did so with nearly equal contributions from their pitching and hitting: the hitters were 20.66 runs better than average, while their pitchers were 17.47 runs better than average. As a team, that is +38.13, or about 1.6 ERV per game.

ERV Player of the Month goes to Jim Thome, who was +17.19 ERV on his own.

ERV Pitcher of the Month goes to Jose Contreras, who put up a +13.08 ERV.

Batting

Pitching

Player	Total	April	Home	Road
Buehrle	8.52	8.52	4.33	4.19
McCarthy	2.88	2.88	4.09	-1.21
Politte	-4.08	-4.08	-3.16	-0.92
Thornton	0.62	0.62	0.75	-0.13
Garcia	-2.49	-2.49	-2.80	0.31
Logan	0.15	0.15	0.29	-0.14
Cotts	0.54	0.54	-1.19	1.73
Jenks	2.31	2.31	3.69	-1.38
Contreras	13.08	13.08	6.85	6.23
Garland	-7.35	-7.35	2.30	-9.66
Vazquez	3.28	3.28	-0.13	3.41
Team	17.47	17.47	15.04	2.43

Fielding:

Player	ERV
Crede	-0.92
AJ	-0.11
Thornton	-0.29
Iguchi	-1.46
Podsednik	-0.23
Garland	-0.61
Total	-3.62

Player of the Game tracking:

Dye - 6
Konerko - 6
Thome - 4
Iguchi - 4
Crede - 2
Anderson 1
Uribe 1

Pitcher of the Game tracking:

Contreras - 5
Buehrle - 3
Vazquez - 3
Garland - 2
McCarthy - 2
Cotts - 2
Logan - 2
Garcia - 1
Thornton - 1

Sox 6, Los Angeles of Anaheim 5

Pitcher	ERV
Garland	-1.38
Thornton	0.24
Politte	0.28
Cotts	0.52
Total	-0.35

Team ERV: 0.30 (Shields wild pitch).

Player of the Game: Joe Crede

Pitcher of the Game: Neal Cotts

Sox 2, Los Angeles of Anaheim 1

Pitcher	ERV
Contreras	3.10
Thornton	0.11
Jenks	0.44
Total	3.65

Player of the Game: Jermaine Dye

Pitcher of the Game: Jose Contreras