Black Betsy

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Read Johnny Mostil's Razor.

Sometimes I fear that I'm one of Doug's only readers, and that is a crying shame. He's the best analyst of Sox baseball there is, period. If you are a Sox fan, you should like Doug's writing. He's a reformed stat-head, who looks much deeper that AVG/OBP/SLG lines indicate. He looks for the context that makes the statistics meaningful.

Here's an example. You might think Jhonny Peralta is a great hitting shortstop. And he is a very good hitter - he banged out 24 home runs last year. Doug wasn't satisfied with Peralta's stat line based on his own observations, so he went inside Peralta's game log to discover that, for the most part, Peralta didn't hit good pitching. The overwhelming portion of his home runs were off bottom of the rotation starters or bottom-of-the-bullpen arms.

Similarly, while Cleveland put up the league's best run differential last year, Doug went behind those numbers to determine that Eric Wedge was, for the most part, leaving in his starters in garbage time situations, who then were running up scores or making blowouts closer. Wedge was managing to his player's stats, thereby making the team's performance look better.

While not every one of Doug's posts is going to be a winner, I really enjoyed his post yesterday about the team's performance thus far. Doug put into words what a lot of Sox fans are feeling - we've got a great record thus far, but we are uneasy because the Sox aren't winning in the same way they won last year. That's been inchoate in my mind for a while, and I almost got there with this post.

AJ's Hot Lukewarm Start

Sox 8, Los Angeles of Anaheim 5

Hooray for Jeff Weaver. After dominating the Sox early in his career (or so it seemed), he's really turned it around and become a reliable victory for the Sox. His control was non-existent, even if he had his strikeout pitch working, and he grooved a number of cookies for Sox hitters to munch on. Only Jermaine Dye homered for the Sox.

The Angels helped out with a number of bad defensive plays. Adam Kennedy couldn't reach Podsednik's weak two-out grounder up the middle of the second, and then Garret Anderson gator-armed Iguchi's long fly (which I thought was an easy home run off the bat) to left. All in all, the five-run second inning was largely a set of Angel gifts.

Oddly enough, the Sox have batted 9 men in an inning several times, but have not sent more than 9 to the plate. This is great for your scoresheet or spreadsheet, but it would be nice to put up a 7 spot or so.

Jim Thome looks like he is heading for a slump to me. He didn't make contact with some juicy pitches last night.

Here is your ERV scoresheet / boxscore:

Pitcher	ERV
Garcia	0.10
McCarthy	-0.98
Cotts	0.42
Jenks	0.11
Total	-0.35

Player of the Game: Paul Konerko

Pitcher of the Game: Neal Cotts

Seattle 5, Sox 1

Pitcher	ERV
Buehrle	-0.38
Jenks	-0.48
Total	-0.87

Player of the Game: Paul Konerko

Pitcher of the Game: None awarded (no pitchers with positive ERV)

Laughers

Is it me, Or have we already been on the upside of more laughers this season than all of last season?

Sox 13, Seattle 3

Pitcher	ERV
Vazquez	1.79
Logan	-0.14
Total	1.65

Player of the Game: Tadahito Iguchi

Pitcher of the Game: Javier Vazquez

Seattle 4, Sox 3

Pitcher	ERV
Garland	1.74
Politte	0.52
Cotts	0.52
McCarthy	-0.93
Total	1.84

Fielding: -0.61 (Garland errors (-0.11, -0.49)) (rounding).

Team ERV: 1.44 (Beltre error (0.44), Moyer wild pitches (0.14, 0.74), Rivera error (0.11)

Player of the Game: Jim Thome

Pitcher of the Game: Jon Garland

Sox 7, Minnesota 3

Pitcher	ERV
Contreras	2.13
Politte	-0.48
Total	1.65

Player of the Game: Juan Uribe

Pitcher of the Game: Jose Contreras

2006 On Its Own

I'm not suggesting that we should forget about the 2005 season. Far from it. Every time I see little clips of last season's magic moments, I luxuriate in the memories. We waited a long time for those moments. But my advice is to avoid using the 2005 season as a prism through which to view the 2006 season. Every baseball season should be appreciated on its own merits. Like today, for instance, a sublimely beautiful spring day that I will spend, in part, in the right-center field stands at the Cell. Enjoy the game.

Vince is right. Every season should stand on its own, although teams should make efforts not to repeat the mistakes of previous years.

And it is true, the 2006 team has a much different feel than the 2005 variety. I've slowly got this feeling over the first few weeks of the season.

First, this team walks a lot more than the 2005 variety. I remarked on that fact several times in early 2005, and Baseball Prospectus even had an article about it. The 2006 team, led by Jim Thome, walks a ton. Even Jermaine Dye - not someone who has walked at a high rate in his career - has 11 walks. Juan Uribe and Joe Crede both have four walks!

Second, the team is winning by large margins. The Sox, 12-5 overall, are 1-2 in one-run games. They are 5-2 in games decided by 2 runs or fewer - meaning that 10 of the 17 games they have played have been decided by 2 runs or more (Sox record - 7-3). It was the opposite last year - 10 of the 17 games have been decided by 2 runs or fewer (Sox record 9-1).

Third, we have some sort of freaky new Joe Crede. Three strikeouts in 55 at bats? Wow. Joe has shown the ability before, but has had some serious breakdown months. Whether it was coming back from the injury, a new stance, or whatever, he's .342 / .383 / .624 since September 10, 2005.

Finally, and most importantly, the Sox have a dominant presence in the lineup in the form of Jim Thome. Last year's team had a bunch of average - to - above - average hitters, led by Paul Konerko (136 OPS+). Jim Thome looks like he has the possibility of producing a Frank-Thomas like season. Remember those? He influences everyone around him - Konerko gets more at bats with men on base, as does Jermaine Dye. Tadahito Iguchi gets better pitches to hit, and he has really responded.

More than anything, I get the impression that whereas the 2005 team needed a lot of things to go right for them to succeed, the 2006 team needs a lot of things to go wrong for them not to succeed. I hate to jinx, or to be overconfident, but that is my feeling at this point. The foundation seems very solid. Because Javier Vazquez is this team's fifth starter, the Sox have a favorable pitching matchup in almost every game this season. Indeed, the Santana vs. Buehrle matchup on Friday was probably the first time a clearly better hurler was on the mound for the other team. Other teams must feel this too - there is no rest for the wicked with this starting rotation.

So Vince is right - let 2005 go. You'll enjoy 2006 more. This team is better.

Sox 9, Minnesota 2

Sox starter Freddy Garcia (3-1) cruised through the Minnesota lineup much as Mark Buehrle did the night before. Garcia's velocity, which had dipped in previous starts, making the Sox a bit nervous last year's workload and this spring's World Baseball Classic had wore on his arm, was back. He permitted two runs and seven hits over 6 2/3 innings, walking one and striking out three.

Pitcher	ERV
Garcia	1.51
Logan	-0.34
McCarthy	0.96
Jenks	0.52
Total	2.65

Player of the Game: Jermaine Dye

Pitcher of the Game: Freddy Garcia

Who's Worth More? The Yankees or the Yankees?

Player	Salary through 2005
Matt Smith	$0
Robinson Cano	$300,000*
Chien-Ming Wang	$300,000*
Andy Phillips	$317,200
Scott Proctor	$600,000*
Bubba Crosby	$624,350
Tanyon Sturtze	$2,588,500
Miguel Cairo	$3,975,000
Shawn Chacon	$4,735,000
Kyle Farnsworth	$5,065,000
Kelly Stinnett	$5,706,500
Mike Myers	$8,413,166
Ron Villone	$8,934,000
Jaret Wright	$16,331,667
Carl Pavano	$17,562,500
Hideki Matsui	$21,000,000
Jorge Posada	$41,058,500
Johnny Damon	$45,189,000
Jason Giambi	$57,773,283
Mariano Rivera	$63,530,125
Derek Jeter	$97,430,000
Bernie Williams	$101,600,001
Mike Mussina	$103,392,167
Gary Sheffield	$119,010,002
Alex Rodriguez	$126,027,000
Randy Johnson	$127,687,500
Total	$979,150,461

* denotes estimated amount.

So the Yankee players are still about $46.8 million behind the Yankees franchise.

But that will change. The Yankees players are set to earn $198,662,180 in salary this year, meaning that they will pass the Yankees franchise during 2006. But when? I know you were curious, too. The easy answer would be $46.8 million divided by $198.7 million, or 23.56% of the way through the season. Precisely, that would occur before the first out is made in the bottom of the 4th inning of game 39 of the season, against Texas on May 17th at Yankee Stadium.

But the simple calculation assumes that the Yankee franchise would not appreciate during 2006. If we assumed the same 8% appreciation from 2005 to 2006 during the 2006 season, the Yankees would actually be worth $1.045 billion by May 17th. So you have to adjust for the Yankee appreciation.

Dusting off a little high school algebra, I get an equation of $979 million (career earnings) plus $198.6 million (2006 salary) times X equals $1.026 billion (Yankee worth) + $1.026 billion times 8% (franchise worth increase) times X, or

$979 + $198.6x = $1.026 + $1.026(.08)x, or
$116.5x = $46.8, or
40.2% of the 2006 season,

which is 65.101 games, which is 65 games and 5 outs, which is after two outs in the bottom of the first in the Yankees' game against the Toons on Thursday, June 15th at Yankee Stadium.

Aren't you glad you knew this?

Sox 7, Minnesota 1

Pitcher	ERV
Buehrle	3.13
Cotts	0.52
Total	3.65

Team ERV: 0.62 (Santana wild pitch (0.14), Castro error (0.48))

Player of the Game: Jermaine Dye

Pitcher of the Game: Mark Buehrle