Black Betsy

RIP Al Lopez

The last Sox manager to get the team to a World Series, Al Lopez, has died. It's wonderful that Lopez made it to see the first White Sox World Championship since 1917.

Lopez was a player first, playing in 1950 games over 19 seasons with Brooklyn, the Boston Braves, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cleveland Indians. He spent 1918 of those games behind the plate as a catcher, and was an All-Star in 1934 and 1941.

Lopez will be remembered for his managerial career, however. He managed in 2425 games for the White Sox and Indians, taking each of those teams to the World Series in an era dominated by the Yankees. Indeed, his 111-win 1954 Cleveland team and the 1959 White Sox were the only teams to break up a long stretch of Yankee pennants. If there had been a three-division plus wild card set up as there is today, his teams would likely have gone to the playoffs 12 times, instead of only twice.

Here's to a Sox legend.

Black Betsy on Sports Bloggers Live

I appear just after Will Carroll, who touches on a very nasty rumor about an outfielder for an AL playoff team testing positive for steroids. Link to the Podcast here. I hope I do not have to write about any White Sox outfielders testing positive. That would be worse than the dropped third strike to Pierzynski (it bounced!).

Mostly, it was one of those sessions where they ask you what its like to be a White Sox fan. Well, duh, it feels pretty sweet. Don't mind my remarks about it being OK for the Cubs to win the World Series now. I was just high on the Sox's World Championship. It passed. And I DID correctly predict that taking Backe out would be a mistake.

More World Series

Check out the Wall Street Journal's daily free feature, the Daily Fix, which discusses the White Sox's championship run. There is an especially good paragraph referring to the potential attempts by other teams to copy the White Sox:

It's an inevitable postchampionship impulse: Other teams wonder how they can apply the winning formula and mint their own trophy. Among the would-be White Sox copycat: Detroit News columnist Rob Parker, for the Tigers; and the Washington Post's Thomas Boswell, for the Nats.

Here's essential reading for this stratagem: "If the Chicago White Sox are going to be perceived as the fresh blueprint for universal baseball achievement, then imitation will follow, which means the search is on for dowdy ownership, ill-conceived ballparks, take-no-guff general managers, garrulous field leaders and rosters of players with generally ordinary skills and uncommon faith in one another," Tim Brown writes in the Los Angeles Times.

I am excited about the prospect of other teams copying the "Small Ball" approach. In fact, the Sox rely on the home run more than any other offensive weapon. They won this year because of run prevention from a great pitching staff and great defense, and 200 home runs. I hope other teams go small, so our pitchers can keep them in the park and get them out on sacrifice bunts. Copy what you do not understand, Cleveland!

Oh, by the way, they quote Black Betsy. It's not the first time I've been quoted in the Journal, but, quite frankly, it's the best.

The Playoffs - Hitters' ERV Scoring

Note - this chart covers only hitting and baserunning, and does not attempt to cover fielding. Joe Crede's numbers would likely go up if you count some of the plays he made in the field.

There a few interesting things about the chart. Paul Konerko is the MickeyMantle award winner - his 4.7 ERV was almost 2 runs better than second-place Joe Crede. After Crede, Pierzynski and Dye are neck and neck for #3 and #4.

Shockingly, Willie Harris provided the 5th highest ERV for the Sox in the playoffs. Some of that is misleading, because he provided 1 ERV worth of value for his pinch hit single in the 14-2 blowout in Game 1 of the ALDS. Chris Widger has 1.27 of ERV - good for 6th best - on the strength of a couple of walks in Game 3 of the World Series, one of which scored a run.

Tadahito Iguchi was the worst player offensively, as just about everyone recognized his struggles in the playoffs. But Rowand was just about as bad, mostly because he hit into some really bad double plays.

On the base running side, the Sox cost themselves quite a few runs. Podsednik actually cost the Sox 0.59 runs on the bases by getting caught on the bases a few times. Overall, between Uribe getting caught off second by Pettite in Game 2, Rowand running into an out at the plate in Game 2 of the ALCS, or Podsednik getting caught twice in the ALDS, the Sox cost themselves 3.5 runs with their baserunning in the playoffs. Luckily, none of this baserunning cost the White Sox a ball game, except for perhaps the baserunning in Game 1 of the ALCS (-1.05 runs as a result of Podsednik and Pierzynski's caught stealing).

Morning After Thoughts

As congratulations pour into my e-mail inbox...

• I cannot fault the choice of Jermaine Dye as World Series MVP. Jermaine came up big in games 1, 3 and 4. He hit over .400 in the World Series with a homer and 3 RBI. He is also a solid citizen, quiet and productive. However, any one of about 12 Sox players could probably get this award, it was such a team effort. In terms of post-season awards, I would much prefer an award similar to the Conn Smythe trophy in the NHL for most outstanding player in the playoffs. That way, we could reward performance throughout the playoffs. My personal Conn Smythe trophy recipient (call it the "Mickey Mantle" award or something) would be Joe Crede, who hit .289/.327/.622 with 4 HR and 11 RBI and played stellar defense in the ALCS and World Series. He won Game 2 of the ALCS, and tied up Game 5 of the ALCS, and provided the winning margin in Game 1 of the World Series. A close second to Paul Konerko, who hit .265/.321/.612 with 5 HR and 15 RBI. He provided the winning margin in Game 3 of the ALDS and Games 3 and 4 of the ALCS. He also provided the greatest thrill of my sporting life with that grand slam in Game 2. Podsednik, Contreras and Garcia would also get votes.

• Last night, my wife brought up champagne when the Sox won. We popped it open and toasted the Sox. After a bit, she said "I don't really like this champagne all that much." I responded, "It's the best champagne I've ever tasted in my life."

• Group Four's contribution in the playoffs - Blum 1-2, 1 HR (game winner), 1 RBI; Harris 2-2, 1 run scored (game winner), 1 RBI; Widger 0-1, 2 BB, 1 RBI; Ozuna, 1 run scored (game winner), 1 SB. Total - 3 for 4, 1 HR, 3 runs (all game winners), 3 RBI, and 2 SB. Now THAT is an effort.

• Ring up the cash registers - I've already bought the DVD, the Black World Champions Hat, and two T-Shirts. Based on merchandise purchases alone, I expect the Sox to be able to bump up the team salary by oh, say, $100 million.

• Jerry Reinsdorf was classy in accepting the World Series trophy. He congratulated the Astros first, and then got a little choked up in crediting his organization and team. For a guy who is often criticized and stays away from the media, he really connected with Sox fans on the podium last night. World Series trophies tend to do that. It was also classy that they brought the entire Sox organization down to Houston.

• The Houston Astros are a class team and they have classy fans. Way to go Houston for asking for an encore from your team. I often root for the Astros in the National League, so I hope you get your World Series soon. But not if you are playing the White Sox.

• Team ERA for the playoffs: 2.55. Wow. Starters - 2.84 ERA (0.97 WHIP!). Relievers - 1.29 ERA.

• The club hit .272/.345/.476 in the playoffs. Not only did the Sox have a higher average, but they were relatively more patient at the plate.

• The Sox honestly have the Minnesota Twins to thank for all of this. Having your brains kicked in for three years (four if you count 2001) by a team that plays great defense and does not beat itself is a powerful lesson. Kenny Williams learned the lesson, got a former Twin (Pierzynski), got the horses, and out-Twinned the Twins this year. We owe the Twins a debt of gratitude for making the Sox stronger.

• Paul Konerko is the White Sox postseason career leader in HR and RBI. Those totals were built up this year - Paulie did nothing in the 2000 ALDS. Joe Jackson still has the record for hits, with 17 over the 1917 and 1919 World Series.

• The Twins won the World Series in John Rooney's last year with the Twins. The Sox's new strategy should be to rehire and fire Rooney every year.

• Wow. I finally get to order one of those Sports Illustrated commemorative things!

Flags Fly Forever

It ended like it started. A 1-0 victory, with pitching and defense the stars of the game. The 2005 White Sox are World Champions.

I don't quite know what to say. Jermaine Dye won the MVP, but it could be equally split 25 different ways. Everyone on the roster, and I mean EVERYONE of the White Sox contributed this postseason. Four different players - Crede, Podsednik, Blum, and Dye had game winning hits in the World Series. And that doesn't even count the fact that Iguchi and Konerko won the ALDS, or that Pierzynski simply kept the team going at every point.

I love this team. I love them for giving me the joy - the bliss! - of a World Championship. I love them for coming out of nowhere, picked 3rd or even 4th(!) in the division before the season began, like the 1990 White Sox team I loved so much. They played their guts out. They won games they had no business winning. I love them for erasing so many demons of years past; falling short in 2003, not showing up for the playoffs in 2000, folding in 1996, not ever having a chance in 1994, not putting it together in 1993, losing to a dynasty in 1990, and crumbling in 1983. For healing my too often broken heart.

You inherit the White Sox. They aren't a bandwagon you jump on early in your life while times are riding high. You go to games when you are 9 years old and find your identity with a team. You cry when they lose; you dance when they win. You learn the history of the team. You are amazed at Eddie Collins' career, Ted Lyons' wins, Luke Appling's hits, and Luis Aparicio's defense. You learn about the pennant races lost, the players traded, and how the Sox always came up short. You play out the 1959 World Series again and again in your mind, trying to change the result. Now that history is washed away by four games in October.

I love this team because they were White Sox. Not too many folks fly the flag proudly, but this team did. Their manager was a White Sox. The general manager was a White Sox. The bench coach, the hitting coach, the third base coach and the first base coach are all White Sox. The term "Sox Pride," virtually invented in 2004, meant something to these coaches. Now, "Sox Pride" means everything. We are World Champions.

The 2005 World Champion flag will fly forever over U.S. Cellular. It will also fly forever in my heart.

The Climactically Critical Game 4

I'll be glad when the World Series is over and I can stop coming up with these lame headlines. But Game 4 has the possibility of being the climax of the 2005 White Sox season. Tonight, they can be World Champions.

Game 4 is something of a microcosm of the entire season. The Sox are able to throw their 4th starter, Freddy Garcia, against the Astros' 4th starter, Brandon Backe. As I've written before, the biggest difference between the White Sox in 2005 and 2004 is the fact that they have gotten much better matchups against the back-ends of other team's rotations. Thus, while Mark Buehrle and his 143 ERA+ matches up favorably with just about every 1st starter in the league, Contreras, Garland and Garcia dominate most 2nd, 3rd and 4th starters in the league. When Brandon McCarthy started throwing well in August and September, the Sox had five 120 ERA+ starters they could throw at teams. Tonight, it's Freddy's 115+ versus Brandon Backe's 87 ERA+. Advantage White Sox.

That said, I am listening to MLB Home Plate on XM right now and listening to Morgan Ensberg talking to Kevin Kennedy and Rob Dibble. He is amazing loose and in a good mood. He should be crushed. We should be hearing the lamentations of the Astro women at this point. That probably scares me more than anything. The 2004 Red Sox seemed loose down three games to none; that is about the only way the Astros are going to come back - stay loose and put the pressure back on the White Sox.

Like the other matchups in this series, there are very short histories between the Sox pitchers and the Astro hitters and vice versa. Mike Lamb has 5 hits in 17 at bats against Garcia, Orlando Palmeiro is 2 for 19. No current Astro has homered off of Garcia, although Berkman, Ensberg and Biggio are a combined 4 for 10 off Garcia. On the other side, Podsednik is 1 for 2 with a homer off of Backe, while Rowand is 1 for 1 and Pierzynski is 1 for 2. Konerko and Joe Crede are a combined 0 for 5, but nothing you could form an opinion about. It is mostly tabula rasa in tonight's game.

The Sox are -132 favorites over the Astros tonight, giving them a 56% chance to win the game. That sounds about right, but I do not count the Astros out. Their pride is on the line tonight, and Backe is a high energy pitcher. Again, the Sox tend to fair poorly when they should win in the post season. I actually would pick the Astros to win tonight as they suck it up.

Plenty of Good Seats Available

Do you think the fans in Houston are a little despondent? How about the ticket brokers? I have found seats in Minute Maid Park available for less than $200 for tonight's game (click on one of the ticket ads above for examples). If you are a Sox fan in Texas, I'd bet you could go to the park and pick up a ticket for face value or less. I guess Astro fans do not want to see the Sox win the series on their own turf.

I wonder if Red Sox fans were selling tickets for face at Game 4 of the ALCS last year.

Don't Stop Believing

Game 3 - The Battle of the Bulge

In the late fall of 1944, the Germans pulled their best resources and troops away from the Eastern Front and attacked American forces through the Ardennes forest in a desperate attempt to halt the Allied advance. The Germans had initial success against some of the American forces, creating a deep pocket in the American lines. What followed was the Battle of the Bulge, the last German offensive in World War II. The Germans lost the battle, which essentially ended the German resistance in the West. By March, 1945, it was all over.

Game 3 reminded me of the Battle of the Bulge. [Note, I'm not equating the Astros with the Germans on any moral level. I think the Astros are some of the most honorable guys in the major leagues. In fact, I've rooted for the Astros in nearly every playoff series they have been in]. The Astros threw the best they had against the White Sox, Roy Oswalt in a must-win, desperate effort.

And the Astros did have great initial success as the Sox played extremely poorly early. Putting aside the 1st inning, in which Biggio and Berkman did some very nice hitting, the Astro runs in the bottom of the 3rd were gift wrapped by Juan Uribe. Not only did Uribe screw up by throwing the ball right into Adam Everett's gut when Everett was picked off, but he misplayed Everett's grounder in the first place. Had Everett been retired, that inning would have ended without any Astro runs.

In the third, like the Germans taking advantage of the poor weather in December 1944, the Astros were handed another run by virtue of the second base umpire ruling that Jason Lane's smash off the wall was a home run. There are a couple of things that bother me about this. First, the second base umpire did not get out deep enough in the outfield to make the call. With six umpires on the field, there is more than enough coverage at second base. Second, Joe Buck and Tim McCarver, who had tried to blow up every controversy they could find this series, spent about two minutes talking about the blown home run call and then moved on. Where was the outrage, Joe? That not-a-home-run home run was the difference in the game in the 9th inning. Without it, the Sox go home 5-4 winners in 9 innings. I didn't dwell on the blown call during the game - I can accept it was a difficult call and move on - but Buck and McCarver's inconsistency in treating mistakes that help the White Sox and hurt the White Sox is aggravating.

On the other side, the top of the third inning was the most frustrating frame for me. The Sox made three outs on nine pitches. I wrote an e-mail to the White Sox e-mail list complaining about the quick outs, and noting that Oswalt could be had.

There is no question that Roy Oswalt was not Roy Oswalt last night. He did not throw his fastball very often or very well. He actually looked afraid of AJ Pierzynski (who was already 5 for 8 against him) when he faced AJ. Oswalt looked like he was out of gas. That said, the 5th inning was a terrific sequence of hitting by the Sox. Even with the short porch in left field, Joe Crede stayed on and went with an outside pitch and drove it for an opposite field home run. Uribe and Iguchi did some nice woodwork as well, each singling to center field (my comment after each, "that'll work"). Jermaine Dye battled Oswalt and dunked an RBI single himself. Disappointingly, Konerko just missed a cookie and flied out to left. Then AJ Pierzynski came through in the clutch, absolutely pummeling a ball into center field - a ball that would have been out of about 28 of the other MLB parks. Stunningly, like Game 2 of the ALCS, the Sox had a 5 run 5th inning to put them ahead 5-4.

You cannot say enough about how Jon Garland sucked it up after Lane's non-home run. He retired 9 in a row before his lead off walk to Ausmus in the 7th. Even then, Garland dug deep, getting Bagwell to pop out and then striking out Biggio on an absolutely perfect 94 mph fastball on the outside corner. I said out loud that it was the biggest pitch of Garland's career.

From that point on, the Sox played extremely poorly. They couldn't get Willie Harris home from second in the 8th inning with one out, as both Podsednik and Iguchi made weak outs. After Politte did a great job in getting Taveras and Berkman out, he walked Ensberg. I can forgive him for walking Ensberg, given that short porch in left.

However, Neil Cotts' walk to Mike Lamb was terrible. After Phil Garner gave the Sox a gift by leaving Lamb into face Cotts, Cotts simply couldn't throw a strike to an overmatched Lamb. Hermanson did his job, although he allowed Lane's double on a pretty good pitch. That run, to me, was on Cotts.

I've said it before, but El Duque does not seem comfortable on the mound until he has a couple of guys on base. He pitched poorly to allow Burke to get to third with nobody out. [This was the first point in the game that I knew the Sox were going to lose.] But he was a magician in striking out Taveras and Ensberg. That curveball is so tantalizing it is amazing. Hitters just cannot stop themselves from swinging at it.

The second time I thought the Sox were going to lose the game was when they went out 1-2-3 in the 10th inning. It was such a pathetic effort against Lidge that I was convinced it would be one of those games where the home team would lead off the 10th inning with a homerun. I was totally convinced that the Sox would lose when Luis Vizcaino came in, and even more convinced when Chris Burke came up with two out. He was the same guy who ended the 18 inning game against the Braves. But God bless Viz, he got out of the 10th inning.

The Sox failed again in the 11th after Podsednik got to second with nobody out. Iguchi failed, Dye failed, and Timo Perez failed to plate him against Chad Qualls. And they didn't look good doing it. Dye was clueless in striking out and Timo Perez - despite his clutch hitting history - looked like the .220 hitter that he is. Now I was really convinced that the Sox would lose.

You had to feel for Bobby Jenks as he came out to pitch in the 11th. He blew the lead in Game 2 and his psyche was at risk. He stupidly threw a curve ball on an 0-2 pitch to hit Taveras - even though the curve ball simply was not working for him during the series. But Jenks finally found himself - and his breaking ball - and popped out Ensberg and Palmeiro.

I was again convinced that the Sox would lose in the bottom of the 12th inning. They went meekly in the top of the 12th inning, and Brad Ausmus was set to hit in the bottom of the 12th. The only thing that I could think of was Carlton Fisk's home run in the 12th inning of Game 6 of the 1975 World Series. I mean, Ausmus is a catcher, isn't he? [Yes, this really is a trip through and microcosm of my neurotic, doomsaying life as a Sox fan.]

There was nothing more disheartening than the top of the 13th inning. After Widger does a great job working a walk off of Qualls, Podsednik miserably failed to execute a bunt, getting himself into a double play. Granted, it was an alert play by Ausmus, but Podsednik had 19 bunt hits this year - he has to get the bunt down. After Iguchi looked pathetic in striking out, I was so convinced the game was over that I told Mrs. SuperNoVa that she should go to bed - the White Sox were going to lose.

My feeling that the Sox would lose was confirmed when Marte entered the game and promptly walked Luis Vizcaino. But then, something marvelous happened - Marte started pitching like Damaso Marte of 2003. I think I slowly gained hope as Marte struck out Biggio and then Taveras.

What can you say about the 14th inning? It started out so poorly after slow-as-molasses Paul Konerko hit into a double play that, truth be told, he was the only person in the major leagues that such a double play could be turned against. Then Geoff Blum so unexpectedly drove one out of the ballpark. Blum's home run was shocking, strange and beautiful. I would have given Podsednik a better chance against Lidge than Blum against Astacio. Blum's liner improbably raced over the fence - it happened so fast I could hardly react. Then I started to think, the Sox might just win this game.

The Sox wouldn't let me go to bed so easy, though. Ausmus scared me in the bottom of the 14th inning because he was the same guy who tied the 18 inning game in the NLDS with a dramatic, two-out, two-strike home run against Kyle Farnsworth. [I was even more anxious after two strikes, if you can believe it]. Then Uribe, who played very poorly all night, booted Ausmus's grounder to bring the winning run to the plate.

I'm not sure how Mark Buehrle did it, but he did. After throwing about 100 pitches two days ago, he found enough to be able to come in and retire Adam Everett. Buehrle even had a 89-mph fastball, to boot. And once the ball fell into Uribe's glove for the final out, there it was, a three games to none lead in the World Series!

I disagree with the Cheat and the others who think that Game 3 was a great game. It was a sloppy game played poorly by teams that do not usually play poorly. There were managerial mistakes - having Lamb hit against Cotts, taking out Luis Vizcaino after just one inning [ed: The Cheat points out that Timo pinch hit for Viz in a good spot in the 11th]- and poor execution. By all rights, the game should have ended in 9 innings with a final score of 5-1 White Sox. Sox pitchers, who had only walked 13 hitters in 10 postseason games thus far, walked 12 hitters in 14 innings, including 10 walks in the 8th inning or later. But it was a White Sox winner, and I'll take it.

I'm not someone who usually gets overconfident, especially when it comes to the White Sox. But I think the Astros are cooked. Like the Germans in the Battle of the Bulge, the Astros put their best resources into Game 3 and the Sox beat them back. Sure, the Astros could just as easily be up 3-0 in this series themselves, but they are not. They have suffered 3 tough losses in which their starting pitchers, bullpen, and hitters have failed them. It is hard to see them coming back at this point, even if the Red Sox's comeback in the 2004 ALCS still puts fear in my heart.

Notes-

* Geoff Blum was hitting in A.J. Pierzynski's spot in the lineup.

* Those four fingers held up by Sox players after Blum's home run were classic. I think it referred to the fact that Blum hits in Group 4 during batting practice. For the record, Group 4 (Blum, Widger, Harris and Ozuna) is now 2-4, with a home run, three RBI, two walks and two stolen bases in the playoffs.

* Is Geoff Blum Houston's Tito Landrum? It kind of feels like it.

* Teams up 3-0 in the World Series are an outstanding 18-3 in Game 4's.

Game 4 preview a bit later.

The Overwhelmingly Paramount Game 3

Two games-to-none leads have been overcome with regularity in the World Series. You might just ask the 1996 Atlanta Braves, the 1986 Red Sox, the 1985 Cardinals, the 1981 Yankees, or the 1978 Dodgers. All of those comebacks, of course, started with a loss in Game 3. Baseball Prospectus has a nice article (subscription required) on how important Games 3 tend to be. That is why I am not so keen to celebrate, as others on Soxtalk.com or the Sox e-mail list seem to be.

And I think Sox fans should prepare themselves for a loss in Game 3. This series has not gone quite like I expected it to so far. I thought the pitching matchups would favor the Sox in Games 1 and 2 (with Contreras having an edge over Clemens at home), but I never thought that it would be Clemens struggling so much and that Pettite would quite the Sox bats. In pretty much every scenario, however, I saw the Sox losing to Roy Oswalt in Game 3.

Oswalt is a very good pitcher in his own right. He has won 20 games two years in a row. He has a sub-3.00 ERA pitching in a hitter's park and with a less than stellar defense behind him. He is also largely an unknown to the Sox, and the Sox seem to do poorly the first time they face a pitcher who throws hard (see Santana, Ervin). Those factors, added to the Astros' terrific home record and absolute need to win Game 3 makes this a real uphill battle for the Sox.

Jon Garland pitches again on long rest. Like Contreras and Buehrle, he is himself largely an unknown to the Astros. Only Mike Lamb has any real number of plate appearances against Garland, having gone 1 for 9 against him while he was with the Rangers. You cannot say enough about how Garland pitched against the Angels in Game 3 of the ALCS in Anaheim. However, he still did give up 2 runs on Orlando Cabrera's home run. I have a very bad feeling that if Jon gives up another 2 runs in this game, he will take the loss.

There are a handful of Sox with at-bats against Oswalt. Podsednik is a not-so-great 6 for 23. On the other hand, Pierzynski is an astounding 5 for 8. I know that Ozzie is likely to use Carl Everett first of the bench, but I'd rather see Timo Perez hitting off of Oswalt. Timo is 4 for 7 in his career off of Oswalt, and Oswalt is the type of pitcher I can see Timo hitting. And there are very few of those. For some reason, I can also see Uribe matching up well against Oswalt; maybe it's because Uribe is hot right now or that he seems to hit fastballers well.

If there is any one thing the Sox can do to win this game is to get to Oswalt early a la games 3 and 4 against Anaheim. I thought Dye's double to drive in Podsednik in Game 3 of the ALCS was one of the key hits of the series - it got the Sox on track, Lackey off kilter, and then Konerko labeled one to put the Sox up 3-0. Getting Scotty on and around would be a blow to the Astros - especially with Podsednik's heroics in Game 2 - and would go a long way to winning the game.

The Astros are -190 favorites to win Game 3, which equates to the oddsmakers saying that the Astros have a 64% chance of winning. I'm inclined to agree with that, and I would even make the Astros a bit bigger favorites, perhaps -210 or so. But I'll be rooting with what voice I have for the Sox as underdogs again.

Notes:

• I am not crazy about MLB ordering the roof at Minute Maid Park to be closed against the wishes of the Astros. I do not agree with the Astros' gamesmanship necessarily, but unless and until MLB puts a definitive rule in place about when a retractable roof should be open (say temps between 60 degrees and 80 degrees), I am inclined to think the Astros should have their park play like they want to play it.

• My money says that the idiot who slapped Craig Biggio's wife was a bandwagon Cubs fan. I just don't see a real Sox fan doing that.

• Someone at ESPN.com changed their prediction about the outcome of the World Series. I am certain that last week the experts were 3-2 picking the Sox to win the series. Now it is 3-2 picking the Astros. I know it was not Gammons or Neyer or Caple, so it must have been Crasnick or Stark. Turncoat.

• ESPN.com also had Diamond-Mind run a prediction of the World Series. While those are just kind of for laughs mostly, I did find it creepy that Konerko was projected to hit a grand slam scoring Uribe, Iguchi and Dye in Game 2. Of course, Diamond-Mind also predicted Clemens would go 7 strong in Game 1 and that Ozzie Guillen would pinch hit Willie Harris for Aaron Rowand and Geoff Blum for Juan Uribe in Game 1. That computer has never watched Ozzie manage.

Whereupon, My Voice Was Lost

Game 1 (my recap here) will always hold a special place in my memory. But Game 2 will be burned into my consciousness. It was a storybook game with a storybook ending in storybook weather.

We got to the game fairly early again and tried to go to Jimbo's. Jimbo's had a line out the door, so we figured we would fare just as well by getting into the park very early. We walked around the Lot B tailgate area, smelled some great bratwurst cooking, got the Bears game score (7-0 at the time), and looked for souvenirs. We walked into the park at about 5:30 or so, got some tasty bratwurst, a couple of beers, and we were ready to go. That's about when the rain really started falling - we looked out and the tarp was out on the field, denying both teams batting practice.

[As an aside, I've been looking for the Sox's vest/black sleeve uniform for a while. I could have sworn that when I went to the park last year, they sold a one-piece, black-sleeved jersey at the park. I remember that I didn't buy it because they didn't have it in my size. This year, the black-sleeved jersey is nowhere to be found. Argh.]

First, the crowd. The Game 2 crowd simply was not into it early like the Game 1 crowd. I noticed it in the first inning when no one was standing up when there were two strikes on Berkman, like we did in Game 1. My brother noticed this too, and he commented on how he felt like the crowd should be more into the game (I went with my wife to Game 1, so it was a new experience for him). During the period when the Sox were floundering and the Astros were in the lead, it was as quiet as a church in the park. At one point in the 5th inning or so, I felt like if I yelled really loud, I could be heard all across the park.

To the game. Game 2 really scared me as a Sox fan. Just like Game 1 of the ALCS, everything seemed to be in the Sox's favor. Pettite was 3-6 with a 6+ ERA at U.S. Cellular. Buehrle was 12-2 at home, including the playoffs. The Sox had momentum after winning Game 1. The Sox were essentially supposed to win Game 2. And that is usually when things go wrong.

The game started well, though. Buehrle had a terrific first inning. My brother noted that it took him 20 seconds to throw the first three pitches of the game. From that point on, it was only 2 more minutes until the inning was over. Dye got on base for Konerko, and I was fully expecting the game to be 2-0 with a Konerko first inning home run. But Paulie watched strike three go by, and there was no first inning pick me up.

Ensberg then jumped on Buehrle's first pitch in the second. It had occurred to me that with the Sox's focus on throwing first pitch strikes, a team could essentially sit on a first pitch fastball and do a lot of damage to the Sox. Ensberg did just that, hitting a no-doubter over the left field wall. Some idiot threw the ball back onto the field; the idiot was not booed enough, in my opinion. Why don't the real Sox fans step in and save the ball from being thrown back on the field? I'll never know.

The Sox's rally in the second was fun if awkward. I'm not quite sure what Rowand was doing on AJ's long single, but it struck me that he was thinking that he could tag up and get into scoring position with two outs. His semi-gaffe was mooted by Crede's duck snort into right field. Uribe's "fielder's choice" pop to Biggio followed, and it looked like the Sox might chase Pettite early. By God, maybe the Sox were going to win in the way it was expected.

Of course, that man Willy Taveras interceded again by finding the right field line in the top of the third. The ball took a bounce that really surprised Dye - he did not play it well. That bounce turned out to be the difference between scoring and not scoring; Berkman's fly-out to centerfield would have been harmless had Taveras held at second.

The wheels came off the wagon in the 5th inning, and it started to look like the Sox were going to Houston tied 1-1 in the series. Ausmus stroked yet another lead off double, and then despite Everett and Biggio's best efforts to kill the rally, that many Taveras again came through by hustling out an infield hit to keep the inning alive. Again, I repeated out loud that the Sox should not let Lance Berkman beat them. And, again, Lance Berkman beat them with a two-out, two-run double.

Things got worse in the bottom of the 5th. After Uribe got the crowd back into the game with a lead off double, Podsednik looked terrible in failing to bunt him over and then flying to centerfield [Taveras showed off a pretty strong arm after Uribe drew the throw]. Then Uribe ran himself into an out when Pettite got him into a run-down after snagging a come-backer. I have to give Pettite a lot of credit; he executed that perfectly. He ran directly at Uribe, like every one is tought, forcing Uribe to commit. One throw to second base later, and Uribe was toast. Then Pettite balked picked Iguchi off, killing the inning and making me feel very bad about the Sox's chances.

Another aborted rally in the 6th - this one killed by Pierzynski's first-pitch pop-out with the tying run in scoring position - really brought me down. I even started to wonder whether people might be leaving early from the game if it got to the 8th inning or so.

Then, of course, the seventh inning arrived. Buehrle had picked his game up by retiring the last seven guys he faced. Uribe - the Sox's hottest hitter in the series - then stroked yet another double. Uribe's ball was a rocket that would have gotten out of the park if it had any elevation whatsoever. I still had hoped for it until it caromed off the wall. Iguchi drew a walk after fouling off pitches when he had a hitter's count. Dye went to 3-2 in the same way.

I know Dye's "hit-by-pitch" was a controversial call. It sure looked from where I was in the upper deck that the ball hit his bat - I was shocked that he was sent to first base. But it's also true that the pitch was way off the plate and it was only a fluke that Dye couldn't get his bat out of the way. It was ball four, and by rights, Dye belonged on first base.

My brother missed all of this. He went to the bathroom before the 7th inning and I sat alone in our seats during the rally. Because of this, I kept saying to myself "Don't come back. Don't come back. They are doing well without you here. Don't come back." Little did I know, but he was thinking the same thing. He reached the tunnel by the time Iguchi walked, and figured that after Dye went to first, he should just stay where he was. He did, and Konerko blasted Qualls' first pitch into the left field seats. Afterwards, he told me that he isn't a superstitious man, but that sequence of events might have made him superstitious.

Konerko's home run was the greatest sporting moment of my life (yes, it topped what followed). Not only was it clutch and gave the Sox a 6-4 lead, but the drama was tremendous. The Sox's best hitter against a fresh bullpen arm. The excitement was built up by the wait as Qualls warmed up. During the warmup, I tried to push all the negative thoughts out of my head - thoughts that had built up through 33 years of being a White Sox fan - and visualized Konerko hitting a home run. Time after time, I visualized him turning on a fastball and launching it into the seats. Sure enough, he did it - it was almost dream-like the way he copied what I had hoped.

I'll never forget the crowd reaction or my own reaction. As soon as he hit it, I knew it was gone (with a brief moment of doubt in which I thought, "that's easily a double over the fielders' heads"). It screamed off the bat, and the only question was where it would land in the seats. From a noise perspective, it was like a hydrogen bomb. The point of contact was the fission-blast, as the crowd screamed in excitement; the point of landing was the fusion-blast, as the crowd lost all control. It sounded like "aaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!!!! . . . AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!" It was amazing.

Among the 41,000 or so united in joy, I was hollering my lungs out. Only once before have I let loose a scream that loud - when I was being dropped off the Sky Screamer at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. That time, I was screaming for my life (and providing myself the surest cure for a hangover I've ever had). This time, I was screaming in ecstasy. I was Howard Dean on voice box steroids. For some reason, I turned my head to the sky; it was so that I could force more air out and scream louder, but looking back, the better answer was that I was directing my cheering towards the only Sox fans who knew how I felt - those who were long gone and in Heaven. For those 30 seconds or so, Heaven was on the South Side.

It instantly felt about 10 degrees warmer.

My brother and I chatted about how we couldn't believe Konerko's homer. I said it was the biggest home run in Sox history, and he started talking about how the Astros were not going to come back from that and briefly mentioned how it would be for the Sox to win the World Series. I quickly said that I was still worried about Game 2 and getting the last six outs.

My worries were well placed. After Politte pitched an easy 8th inning, Jenks got to face the lower half of the Astros' order. I figured he matched up well with them, and getting to face Bagwell again would be a good confidence builder. Instead, Jenks' fastball topped out at 97 mph, and most of his pitches were at 95. Bagwell, who is still a great hitter, did what all great hitters do - he timed Jenks' fastball and hit it to center. I thought Rowand was going to catch it, but he pulled up 15 feet or so behind the ball and caught it on a hop. Jenks looked good in blowing away Lane, but bad in walking Burke on four pitches. The tying runs were on base.

Jenks then did a pretty good job on Ausmus, breaking his bat on a slow bouncer to Konerko. Whew. One out away. Then Vizcaino ripped Jenks' first pitch into left, and after Burke beat Podsednik's surprisingly decent throw, we all went into a stunned silence. Ozzie then undoubtedly made the right move by pulling Jenks and going to Cotts.

Cotts then went in the hole to Lamb. I said out loud, "C'mon Cotts, get this guy out, go sit down and you'll be the winning pitcher." He did and he was.

I'm not sure if I can add much to what has already been said or written about Podsednik's home run. I thought it was a gapper, then a double over the outfielder's heads, and then finally saw that it could go out of the park. When it did, the crowd exploded again. All I could think of was Jack Buck's call of Kirk Gibson's home run in the 1988 World Series; "I don't believe what I just saw." I quickly amended my estimate that Konerko had hit the biggest home run in White Sox history. Podsednik had stolen Konerko's crown about 40 minutes afterwards.

After the game, walking away from the stadium, I heard a 20-something Sox fan talking on his cell phone with a friend. The only part of the conversation I picked up was this:

"The $850 [he must have spent on a ticket] looks like a bargain right now."

I couldn't agree more. The memory of Game 2 will be priceless to me no matter what happens in the rest of the Series - and there is a lot more baseball to be played. I'll treasure the ticket stub and the program and the memories as long as I live.

Additional Note - Chicago

What a buzz there was around the city about the White Sox! That was one of the best parts of my trip - I'd never seen the city so excited about my team. After years of being one of the few in the Sox diaspora, it felt so heartwarming to see so many people wearing the Sox colors. It was like coming home after being locked up in a foreign prison for years. It's great to see the Sox flag - which seems to have been at half-mast my entire life - fly so high and so proudly.

Leaving Something Behind in Chicago

It struck me on the plane coming back from Chicago tonight that there's one thing you can lose, and know exactly where you left it. Your voice. I lost mine in the upper deck at U.S. Cellular Field on Sunday night.

I was truly blessed to have been able to get tickets to Games 1 and 2 of the World Series (my lack of access to the Internet during my time in Chicago is why I haven't posted). It was a hopefully-not-once-in-a-lifetime-but-just-in-case-I-better-go type of experience. After going to both the games, I have a lifetime of World Series memories.

I've gone to the World Series before. It is unquestionably an exciting event - a baseball game played on the world's biggest stage. But there is nothing like seeing a World Series game in which your team is playing. It is a different level, an uber-experience. It is difficult to believe that you are in a stadium you have been many times before, watching a team you have watched so many times before, yet it means more than it ever has before. It is like an out-of-body experience.

I bought a program and kept score both games, taking notes when I felt like it, but mostly trying to drink in as much as I could.

Game 1

We arrived at the park very early - about 4:00 p.m. - and spent some time walking around the outside of the stadium. I bought one of the $40 World Series Sox hats, which struck me as an outrageous price. Of course, the next day I saw the same hat at Dick's Sporting Goods in Geneva for $33, so I do not feel too ripped off. We also walked around the tailgates, and man did some of that stuff smell good. I think I counted about 30-40 of those beanbag-and-board games, which clearly are the official tailgating pastime of White Sox tailgaters. We entered the park at about 5:15 or so, and watched the Sox take a little BP before wandering around the upper deck for a while. I had a beer and took in some of that wonderful corn-off-the-cob they sell. [Note to all ballpark food managers: corn off the cob is cheap and fast to make, you can sell it for $3 easy, and it tastes fantastic. Get it in your park next season. This means you.]

We took our seats again near game time. I thought there were a number of classy things about the opening ceremonies. It was great to see Luis Aparicio throw out the first pitch, and it was very nice that he was accompanied by some of the Sox's great players of the 50's and 60's. That was a nice touch. An even nicer touch was that, after the Sox brought out their reserves to stand along the first base line, they introduced Frank Thomas on his own. Big Frank got a huge ovation. Classy, all the way. [I hasten to add that there was no fly-over, which surprised me. It's always cool to see and hear F-15's or F-18's screaming over the stadium as the National Anthem ends. I guess the weather wasn't good enough.]

The first inning went off very much like how I had hoped. Contreras set down the Astros in order, and the Sox got on the board with Jermaine Dye's first inning solo home run. Dye's home run looked a little funny to me from my perch in the first-base-line upper deck. Having been spoiled to watch a lot of games from very close to the field, I've become relatively adept at discerning home run from fly ball. Dye's home run looked like a fly out off the bat, and thus surprised me when it easily cleared the fence and landed about halfway back in the bullpen. An excellent start.

But the Astros answered back, and kept answering back when the Sox scored. Lamb hit his bomb in the second, which looked gone the whole way but really just climbed over the wall. Thankfully, the Sox plated two in the second, highlighted by Aaron Rowand's absolutely beautiful hit-and-run play. Television does not do justic to hit-and-run plays. You need to see the second baseman break for second base only to stop in his tracks and try to go into emergency reverse ("I said all back full!"). My notes then ask the question, "what happened on Pierzynski's grounder in the second?" Carl Everett scored from third on a play where he stopped in his tracks. I was shocked to see him break for home - someone screwed up somewhere on that play, and I was shaking my head the rest of the inning. 3-1 Sox.

The Astro third was extremely frustrating. First, it was frustrating because Contreras could not start the double play on Everett's come-backer. I thought Uribe might be able to fire a laser beam over to first, but Everett beat it easily. That turned out to be a big play, as Biggio got a hit, Taveras (thankfully) sacrificed the runners over, and Berkman came up with two out. With a base open and the tying runners already on, I thought the Sox were nuts to pitch to Berkman. I assumed that when Ozzie went out to talk to Contreras before he hit, Ozzie was telling him not to throw him anything near the plate. Well, one pitch later, Berkman was standing on second after roping one off the right field wall. Damn. If there's any one person the Sox do not want to have beat them, it's Lance Berkman. Yet they let him beat them yesterday in the 3rd.

Game 1 was Clemens's start - it seems so long ago - and I recall being fired up that the Sox forced him to throw 25 pitches in the first inning and 27 pitches in the second. I thought to myself that, with 52 pitches through 2 innings, he'll never be able to last through 6 innings. Little did I know that Clemens had a bad hammy, and Wandy Rodriguez surprised me by starting the third. Rodriguez surprised me in two ways: (1) because he replaced Clemens so early; and (2) because I had no earthly idea who Wandy Rodriguez was.

Despite the fact that mighty Joe Crede homered to give the Sox the lead in the 4th, the 3rd through 8th innings were frustrating offensively. The Sox got Dye and Konerko on with one out in the 3rd and could do nothing. They got Uribe and Podsednik on in the 4th and could do nothing, as Iguchi hit into a double play. The same in the fifth, as the Sox loaded the bases with one out and Pierzynski hit into a double play. My notes say one thing - "major bummer on Pierzynski DP in the 5th." At that point, the game had all the earmarks of a game the Sox would lose because they weren't able to put the Astros away offensively.

Thankfully, the Sox rose to the task defensively. After Taveras doubled to start the 6th, Contreras really sucked it up to retire Berkman, Ensberg and Lamb and leave Taveras stranded at third. My notes say, "nice play by Crede - 6th" - a reference to his diving stop to rob Morgan Ensberg, and then "Big to get out of the 6th!"

The 8th inning really was Game 1. After my new enemy Willy Taveras doubled yet again to lead off the inning and Berkman made it 1st and 3rd with no-one out, the Sox bullpen did an outstanding job. After giving up the bullpen single, Cotts got two huge strikeouts on Ensberg and Lamb. [By the way, if you have a chance, check out the Nats Blog during the World Series for ERV Scoring. DM figures that Lamb's strikeout in the 8th inning was the biggest play for the Sox in the game (Berkman's double was the biggest for the Astros).]

Jenks came in with two out in the 8th. I have to say, I have not formed a definite opinion on Jenks. I saw his first few appearances for the Sox, but then got involved in my wedding and left for my honeymoon and missed the last month of the season or so. So I'd never seen him in person, and I was not sure whether to trust him.

Warming up, Jenks gave me no definitive reason to give him my trust. He could not, for the life of him, get a curve ball near the strike zone. My notes say "Jenks' curve looked terrible in warmups." Luckily, he did not need it. He blew away Bagwell - his first pitch flashed 99 on the scoreboard - and the last Astro threat was done.

The 8th inning insurance run provided by Pierzynski and Podsednik was terrific. That really shut the door on the Astros, and Jenks' two-strikeout 9th seemed like a formality more than anything.

The park was electric after the last out. There were constant chants of "Let's Go White Sox (clap, clap, clap-clap-clap)," and we nearly floated home from there. As a Game 1 of the World Series goes, it was terrific.

Note - the Crowd

During the game, I thought the crowd was as into the game as it could get in a Game 1. As I stated above, it was a little stunning to watch your team in the World Series, and you are not quite sure how to react; this is nothing surprising, I felt the same way at Game 1 last year as a mostly-neutral observer at Fenway Park. People stood up and cheered as early as the first inning when Contreras had two strikes on Berkman, and that's about as good as you can expect. As the Sox took and then lost leads, the energy predictably waxed and then waned. The 5th and 6th inning crap-outs sucked out a lot of energy, but Cotts and Jenks' 8th inning performance really juiced the crowd. There was high energy the rest of the way.

Game 2 in a follow up post.

Anticipation Is High - Game 1

White Sox fans are not used to getting ready for World Series games. I find it so odd that the national media is talking about my team and my players. For so long, the White Sox have been just another team out there on the back burner; they get some attention when they are doing well (how many times in your life have you seen the headline "White Hot White Sox" when they go on a streak. It's like the Sox good streaks are so few and far between that they forget that they used that headline the last time), but it's just an interlude from coverage of the Yankees, Mets, and Red Sox.

But here we are, approaching Game 1. All eyes are focused on U.S. Cellular and the White Sox and Astros. By God, Roger Clemens is pitching tonight. Legend of Legends, the best post-dead-ball-era right hander. It's the Big Time.

I feel like there are so many unknowns. Sure, Konerko is 8-18 off Clemens in his career, and Joe Crede strangely has 2 home runs in 5 career at-bats off of Clemens. But the World Series is unchartered territory. How will Jose Contreras attack the Houston hitters? Will he be rattled by pitching in a World Series? Will Houston be ready for his stuff. And this Lance Berkman character scares the bejeezus out of me.

Once again, I think it will be important for the White Sox to score early and score first in this game. They do seem to play better when they have broken the ice and gotten on the board first. Getting Podsednik on to lead off the game - especially with Roger Clemens' high leg kick and slow delivery to the plate - would be a huge positive. A first inning run would lift everyone's spirits, mine especially. By the same token, keeping Houston off the board early will be equally important.

I've posted about the umpires in this series. I hope that Contreras's days of walking 3-4 hitters per game are over. He needs to get ahead, throw first pitch strikes, and get the Astros chasing his forkball. We need the Jose Contreras of August and September and October out there tonight. He is the horse the Sox need to ride the most.

I wish I had some great analyses today. I don't. I don't know how to analyze a World Series game - it seems so different than the others. Tonight, the Sox are -132 favorites, which strikes me as way too high with Roger Clemens on the mound. I do believe that the Sox should be underdogs in this particular game with Clemens on the hill. But they have a fighting chance.

The Umps

The Cheat had a link to MLB's announcement concerning the umpires for the World Series. The roster is Joe West, Derryl Cousins, Jeff Nelson, Angel Hernandez, Gary Cederstrom, and Jerry Lane. The home plate rotation should be as follows:

Game 1: Joe West

Game 2: Jeff Nelson

Game 3: Jerry Layne

Game 4: Derryl Cousins

Game 5: Gary Cederstrom

Game 6: Angel Hernandez

Game 7: Joe West

Here are the statistics on each of the umpires in terms of number of walks and strikeouts per 9 innings, as well as the league average (as weighted by innings):

Umpire	BB/9	K/9
Joe West	3.4	6.8
Jeff Nelson	3.0	7.0
Jerry Layne	3.5	6.1
Derryl Cousins	4.1	6.4
Gary Cederstrom	3.2	6.2
Angel Hernandez	3.2	6.4
MLB Average	3.17	6.38

As you can see, this crew, except for Jeff Nelson, is relatively hitter-friendly. Derryl Cousins' games have nearly 30% more walks than average, and only Joe West and Jeff Nelson are above average when it comes to ringing hitters up. Mark Buehrle, who does not need much help throwing strikes, pull Nelson in Game 2 and Angel Hernandez in Game 6. Troublingly, Freddy Garcia, with one of the higher walk rates on the White Sox, picks up Cousins in Game 4.

You might ask how this compares to other umpires the Sox have had in the post season? Well, here they are:

Umpire	BB/9	K/9
John Hirschbeck (ALDS-1)	3.0	6.5
Bill Miller (ALDS-2)	2.6	6.3
Mark Wegner (ALDS-3)	3.3	6.1
Jerry Crawford (ALCS-1)	3.0	6.0
Doug Eddings (ALCS-2)	2.2	6.6
Ted Barrett (ALCS-3)	3.1	6.1
Ron Kulpa (ALCS-4)	3.1	6.3
Ed Rapuano (ALCS-5)	3.1	6.1
MLB Average	3.17	6.38

In the prior to series, the Sox had just the opposite - pitchers who issued fewer than average walks, including super-low-walk men Doug Eddings and Bill Miller. The only possible exception to that was Mark Wegner, who wound up allowing a bunch of walks in Game 3 of the ALDS (remember Ozzie's tirade from the dugout).

You can draw your own conclusion from these data. However, it is clear to me that the Sox pitchers, who walked only 4 batters in the ALCS, will have a bit more difficulty in the World Series getting their pitches called strikes. And keeping the Angels off base was was on the key weapons of the ALCS; one hopes that subtle things like close calls on 1-1 counts do not make the difference in the series.

You can find the data on the umpires at Baseball Prospectus.

Brokers - Supply, Demand and Circumference

Like most, if not all of you, I struck out trying to get tickets to the World Series through Ticketmaster. For me, the White Sox going to the World Series was a lifelong dream, something that I always thought I'd pay a lot of money to see. Like most of you, I'm also pretty shocked by the prices that are being charged by ticket brokers to buy World Series tickets. I've seen a pretty steady range of $700-$800 for the worst seats in the house (upperdeck corners near the foul poles), and up to $9000 per seat for the Scout seats.

I do not think the seats are selling all that well at those prices. I just checked one broker's web site (no link, I do not want to give out free advertising), and there were a total of 820 tickets in the broker's inventory for Game 1 alone. That's approximately 2% of US Cellular Field, which holds about 41,000 people when loaded to the absolute gills. Brokers may share a portion of their inventory, which may account for some of that figure, but it looks like the supply is still going to be there. Since today is the cut-off for Friday Fed-Ex delivery, prices might be dropping tomorrow. I'd also be interested to see what prices are like on Saturday. My guess is that seats can be had in the afternoon for as little as $300 per ticket.

However, here's an additional wrinkle - the police are putting up a security bubble around US Cellular for the World Series. No one without tickets will be able to get into the bubble. The bubble will extend approximately1 block all around the stadium. While that may not seem like much, the circumference of this bubble is probably about one mile. Since no-one without tickets will be allowed into the bubble, there will be no market for ticket brokers within the bubble. All the people inside will have tickets.

Accordingly, the brokers will have to work the outside of the bubble. However, the circumference of the bubble will likely be something like 10 times as large as the circumference of US Cellular Field itself, meaning that the ticket brokers will need more salesmen to cover the same number of fans going near the stadium to buy tickets. Because there will necessarily be more ground to cover, the number of fans any particular salesman encounters will be lower. In other words, the bubble will alter the supply and demand equation will be altered in favor of the buyers. Because of this, I would not be surprised to see tickets selling for a small markup on the outside of the bubble near game time. But that's only a theory. I would like nothing more than to see a bunch of ticket brokers basically giving away tickets at face price near the bubble. On the other hand, I would hate to see empty seats inside the stadium.

It's The Astros

The Blogosphere's #2 #3 Best White Sox Blog

Some site called Deadspin has named Black Betsy the #2 Best White Sox Blog. Whatever Deadspin is, they describe the White Sox blogosphere as "needing to step up." The Cheat's Blog is the only one considered "outstanding" and the rest are "interchangeable and somewhat sporadically updated." Ouch, that hurts. Hey, I did switch jobs and get married and all. Give a blogger a two month break!

Well, it's not the first time someone has referred to my writing as #2.

EDIT: Oh, Man, I just got bumped down to # 3 by Exile in Wrigleyville. I feel like the Minnesota Twins. Didn't those folks at Deadspin read my delightful posts on "What if Babe Ruth was Traded To the White Sox"? Or my highly acclaimed post about Hawk Harrelson's GM tenure?

Since both the Cheat and Vince are actually paid to write their blogs (they are part of Kos's network and allbaseball, respectively), I guess I can say "Black Betsy is the best non-commercial White Sox blog, as rated by Deadspin.com."

Wondering Who To Root For?

It has been very nice to simply celebrate the Sox's AL Pennant (it's nice to write it as well) in the last few days. It is amazing to see the team you love, which has failed so many times before, had early exits from the playoffs, and early fades in the regular season, to finally succeed and to do so convincingly. I would never have expected a 7-1 playoff record through the first two rounds, although given how terrible I felt after the one loss, I'm not sure I could have withstood a 7-5 record through the first two rounds, even if the Sox would still be going to the World Series.

Now I've turned my attention somewhat to the World Series. For a while, I've thought that the Sox would be better off playing the Houston Astros. The Sox's right-handed power would play well in that bandbox down in Houston. In addition, there's a key difference between the Cardinals and Astros:

Houston, 609 Runs Allowed. St. Louis, 639 Runs Allowed.
Houston, 693 Runs Scored. St. Louis, 805 Runs Scored.

The St. Louis offense is much better than the Houston offense (and was easily better than the Angel offense when you factor in the lack of DH), yet the Cardinals' pitching is not that much worse. All in all, the Sox should have an easier time shutting down the Astros' offense than the Cardinal offense.

But it goes much further than that. The one remarkable thing about the Cardinals and Astros is that 2 of the top 3 starters from each team spent much of their time in the American League. Indeed, until 2004, Clemens, Pettite, Mulder and Carpenter had only pitched in the AL. Thus, the White Sox have a lot of experience against these pitchers.

The difference is pretty extreme. Carpenter and Mulder - who would presumably pitch 4 of the 7 games against the White Sox - have absolutely owned the White Sox. Here are their career records against the Pale Hose:

Carpenter - 7 wins, 1 loss, 1.97 ERA

Mulder - 5 wins, 1 loss, 2.47 ERA

On the other hand, the Sox have fared comparatively better against Pettite and Clemens:

Pettite -10 wins, 7 losses, 4.30 ERA - higher than his career 3.9x ERA. Pettite is 3-6 with a 6.33 ERA at US Cellular Field.

Clemens - 17 wins, 8 losses, 3.35 ERA - higher than his career 3.12 ERA. Clemens is 4-3 with a 3.94 ERA at US Cellular Field.

In my mind, there is no doubt that the Sox would be much better off facing the Astros than the Cardinals, if only to avoid Carpenter and Mulder. And that does not even take into account this man.

GO ASTROS!!

WORLD SERIES!!!

I'm a White Sox fan. I am not used to celebrating. How's this?

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!! WOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!! WOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!! YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!
YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!
YESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYESYES!

[Just a first draft...more celebration to follow].

The Nervewrackingly Critical Game 5

There's no two ways about it; the Sox need to go for the kill tonight. A 3 games to 1 series lead means only one thing - that one more win is needed to go to the World Series. That win is neither guaranteed nor easy over the next three games.

Like I did with Game 3 of the ALDS, I looked back at playoff teams with a 3-1 series lead. There have been 62 best-of-seven playoff series in the history of MLB in which a team has had a 3-1 series lead. One would expect that, with only needing a single victory out of the last three games, the team with the 3-1 series lead would win about 87.5% of the time (i.e., 1-50%*50%*50%), or 54 of the 62 series. In reality, they've won 84% of the time, which is pretty close.

However, that 84% chance is essentially the same as the chance you have in Russian Roulette of not getting killed. That's the kind of way I feel about the rest of the series; sure, the Sox have a great chance of winning, but if they don't, it is going to kill me.

As with 2-0 leads in 5-game series, it's best for a team with a 3-1 lead to get a quick kill. You would expect teams with 3-1 leads to win the series by game 6 75% of the time (1-50%*50%). In reality, they've done it 77% of the time, winning the series in Game 5 thirty-two times and in Game 6 sixteen times. Overall, teams with 3-1 leads are 32-30 in Game 5's, and 16-14 in Game 6's.

You do not want to take the series to a Game 7, however. In the 14 times a team has come back from a 3-1 series deficit to force a Game 7, that team has won Game 7 an Aaron-Rowand-versus-Tim-Wakefield-esque 10 of 14 times (71.4%). Since the inception of the 7-game LCS in 1985, teams who were forced to Game 7's after a 3-1 lead are 1-6. Let me repeat that; teams forced to a Game 7 after a 3-1 series lead are ONE and SIX in those Game 7's. These teams include the '85 Blue Jays, the '85 Cardinals, the '86 Angels, the '96 Cardinals, the '03 Cubs, and the '04 Yankees (after Game 4, they did have a 3-1 lead). The only team to survive losing a 3-1 lead since '85 was the '92 Braves (who needed a miracle comeback in the bottom of the 9th of Game 7 to do it).

For those reasons, the Sox need to finish the job tonight in Anaheim. Jose Contreras takes the hill again, and while he pitched very well in Game 1, he pitched only well enough to lose 3-2. Mind you, he did not have many balls hit hard off of him - there was Garret Anderson's crowd-quieting bomb in the 2nd, for sure - but he also made a mental mistake on defense to allow the third and winning Angel run to score. It was the second time that Contreras pitched just well enough to lose to the Angels. He'll need to keep the ball in the park and keep attacking the Angels hitters with early-count strikes.

On the other side, the Sox face Paul Byrd again, who is very rested, having thrown only 73 pitches in his 6 Game 1 innings. That pitch count tells you a lot of what you need to know about why the Sox failed to generate offense against Byrd - they were over-anxious and getting themselves out early in the count. Byrd is now 6-2 against the White Sox in his career and seems to be a real tough nut to crack. I've looked over his past game logs against the Sox, and he does not appear to be the kind of guy you automatically have more success against the second time around.

Just as a reminder, here are the key matchups vs. Contreras in the game:

On the other hand, it is once again slim pickens against Byrd:

Podsednik	.600 (3-5, incl. 1-2 in G1)
Konerko	.250 (5-20, 1 HR incl. 0-3 in G1)
Crede	.273 (3-11) 3 HR, incl. 1-2 in G1)

Unlike Games 3 and 4, the Sox are +120 favorites in Game 5, meaning that the oddsmakers have estimated that the Sox have a 56.5% chance of winning this game. Once again, I'd disagree. The Sox were stymied by Byrd in Game 1, and he's thrown well against the Sox his entire career. Put that together with a veteran Angel team having its back to the wall, and a Sox team that may be easing up after taking two in Anaheim, and I think the Angels are favorites to win this game (I'd probably make them +130 favorites myself).

Like Games 3 and 4, the Sox need to score first again. They are now 6-2 against the Angels this year in games they've scored first, while they are 1-5 in games where the Angels have scored first. I do not think that Konerko will get much to hit with bases open tonight, so I think it's important for Jermaine Dye and Carl Everett to produce. I'd love to see the Sox get Podsednik on for Dye to drive in - hopefully with Jermaine's first postseason home run - in the first inning. Guys like Aaron Rowand and Juan Uribe also need to produce tonight. Rowand has only two hits in the series and has killed a couple of Sox rallies. Crede seems to be all-or-nothing against Byrd - we should hope for all (but prepare for nothing).

As with the prior 4 games, this one scares the ever living crap out of me. Byrd, who seems to have very little on the mound, seems to sap the Sox offense with ease. The last thing the Sox need is to lose momentum going back to Chicago, especially with their best pitcher on the mound tonight. We do not need the visions of the 2003 Cubs in our minds in Chicago.