Black Betsy

Falling Deeper Into The Abyss

With yesterday's 3-2 loss to the Tigers the Sox have now lost 5 in a row, going from a 0.5 game lead on the Twhiners to a 4.0 game deficit. Yikes, it happens that fast. Last night's game was so bad I could only watch it on TiVo at 2x and 3x fast forward; slowing it down to see the Sox's futility at the plate was just too hard. That was OK, though, as it made watching the game about a 15-minute exercise. [If you're a Sox fan and you don't have TiVo, you should get it, because the Sox are less painful with it. If there was only a TiVo for life so I could skip through the lame and/or embarrassing parts].

Why this downward spiral? Well, Ozzie Guillen has put his finger on it; the Sox do not get on base enough:

"We are going to find a leadoff guy," Guillen said. "If what we have is not doing the job, I will tell Kenny Williams to get me someone to get on base. That's what we need. We need some people to get on base. We lead the nation, we lead the history of baseball, in solo home runs.

"I don't see any team in baseball, ever, hit so many solo home runs. That's what we are doing right
now."

And the statistics bear this out. Here's last night's lineup with their overall OBP and OBP in July:

Player	Season	July
W Harris	0.355	0.364
T Perez	0.308	0.242
C Lee	0.366	0.370
C Everett	0.328	0.319
P Konerko	0.365	0.350
J Valentin	0.300	0.207
A Rowand	0.352	0.375
J Crede	0.292	0.262
S Alomar Jr	0.316	0.227

Shut Your Piehole, Jacque Jones

One of the most annoying parts of the Twins-White Sox rivalry is the consistent whining of the Twins (Twhiners?) that they aren't given enough respect or that no one thinks they can win.  All we ever hear from Torii Hunter and Doug Mintkiewicz and Corey Koskie is how no one likes the Twins, no one wants them to win and how everyone says they have no talent.  Here's just the latest example from Jacque Jones:

"This is something we've done for the last couple of years," said Jones, a veteran of the Twins' Central Division titles in 2002 and 2003. "Nobody expects us to be able to compete, but we do."

From what I can tell, Jacque Jones is a big fat liar.  Sportnutz shows that 3 of 8 baseball writers predicted the Twins to win the Central.  Sports Illustrated  picked the Twins to win the Central.  Jayson Stark, Peter Gammons, Rob Neyer, Tim Kurkjian, Jim Caple, Matt Szefc (?),  and Bob Klapisch all picked the Twins to win the Central.  So who is this nobody you are talking about Jacque?
 
Nor have I ever seen a baseball writer or member of the media refer to the Twins as untalented.  In fact, the Twins are recognized as having some of the best young talent in baseball.
 
So shut up with your false modesty, Jacque and the rest of you Twhiners.  Motivate yourself with something else, because you're "nobody likes us, everyone thinks we suck" nonsense is wearing thin.

The Big Sigh

Well, the Twins completed their three-game sweep of the White Sox yesterday in less than spectacular fashion.  Jose Valentin and Juan Uribe both got caught stealing to make the first two outs of the 7th inning, meaning that despite the fact that the first 6 batters of that inning reached base for the Sox, they scored but one run.  In the 9th, Joe Borchard hits a first-pitch double play to kill a man-on-third-one-out rally that could have ended the game.  In the 10th, Jose Valentin drops a pop up in foul territory for what would have been the 3rd out.  The Twins promptly score a run.  Ugly, all around.  Meaningwhile, Torii Hunter got out of town unscathed.  Sticks and stones may break Torii's bones, but boos from the US Cellular Crowd can never hurt him.

But there is a deeper truth to the Sox-Twins series.  In all respects, the Twins are a better team than the Sox now that Ordonez and Thomas are effectively out for the season.  Assuming as you must that the two teams were relatively close in talent last year, comparing the two teams shows the difference.  The Twins lost A.J. Pierzynski, but replaced him with Joe Mauer (who's mostly been beat up), meaning the Twins have lost only a little bit of production from the catcher position.  In all other respects, the Twins team is the same with the exception of Carlos Silva taking the place of Kenny Rogers.  They've had similar performances, so that's been a wash.  Now add Lew Ford and Justin Morneau to the mix.  This Twins team is the same, if not a shade better than last year.

On the contrary, the Sox are not as good a team as the one put together for the stretch drive last year.  Freddy Garcia is a marginal improvement over Bartolo Colon, and Scott Schoeneweis is better than whatever 5th starter was in place last year.  The bullpen is about the same, thanks to the fact that Shingo Takatsu has replaced Tom Gordon very nicely.  On offense, Magglio has been replaced by Timo Perez/Ross Gload, and Frank Thomas has been replaced by Carl Everett.  Those are two huge down grades.  So no one should be surprised that the Twins have taken the lead and will probably keep the lead for the rest of the year (due to the last 8 games, the schedule tool now predicts the Twins winning the division by at least 2 games).

I forecast only a glimmer of hope.  At any time, someone like Brad Radke or Johan Santana could go down, changing the Twins' fortunes dramatically.  Similarly, Justin Morneau might get figured out by AL pitchers quickly - he is just a rookie after all.  Joe Nathan has been hot all year, and he could blow a couple of saves down the stretch.  Joe Crede could have a hot second half, and Juan Uribe (July version) may give way to Juan Uribe (April version) in August.  Who knows, there's a lot of baseball to be played.  But the breaks would have to start going the Sox's way for them to win the division.  (On another note, I do take some solace from the fact that last july, the Sox swept the Twins in US Cellular, only to have the Twins win the division after winning the September match-up 5 games to 2.  If the Sox go 4-2 against the Twins in September, that changes the equation somewhat).

 

More On Head-Hunter

The Book of Mike has a pretty good analysis of what exactly the message Torii Hunter "sent" last night was:

He sent a message loud and clear.  He’s a punk.  It’s not enough for him to let the score talk or to let his team’s division titles talk.  He, apparently, needs to talk by taking action that’s not part of baseball – hitting a catcher who’s not going to make a play on him.  I’m disappointed in happy-go-lucky Torii Hunter and I lost a lot of respect for him last night.

It also sent the message that Hunter is not the brightest bulb in the box.  By barreling into Burke, Hunter did put himself at risk for injury, an injury the Twins (or any other team) could not afford to sustain.  He also, although I’m sure this is of less concern to the Twins – but Hunter did express sympathy afterwards, put Jamie Burke at risk for a serious injury.  The extent of Burke’s injuries is not presently known, but he was taken to the hospital last night.  Had a Sox player run into Twins catcher and uber-prospect Joe Mauer (assuming he was healthy and on the field), every self-righteous Twins fan would be calling for the suspension of the aggressive Sox player today.  For some reason, that just seems to be how Twins fans are – it’s almost like a bit of a Napoleon complex for fans of the team from Minneapolis, as they try to prove their supremacy over their big brothers in the big city of Chicago.  I would be curious to hear the reactions from Twins fans today had Hunter separated his shoulder in the collision with Burke and his catcher's gear.  I suppose the blame would, wrongly, be placed on Burke for obstructing Hunter's path to the plate.

Black Betsy cannot agree with the Book of Mike more.  Had Joe Mauer been the recipient of such a shot from Aaron Rowand, there would be much wailing and gnashing of teeth from the Twin Cities. 

As it stands, Jamie Burke is in the hospital because of a dirty play.  At the same time, Torii Hunter plays the victim because some angered White Sox fans made idle threats while he was in the on-deck circle.  Sure, those threats were wrong.  But you reap what you sow, Torii.

Torii Hunter's Cheap Shot - What's Next?

In my mind, there is one lasting question from last night's 6-2 loss to the Twinkies - how do the Sox respond to Torii Hunter's cheap shot of Jamie Burke at the plate.  [And, by the way, there is no disputing that it was, indeed, a cheap shot.  Hunter veered from his line to the plate to take out Jamie Burke, who had at least one foot on the infield grass and was not in Hunter's path toward the plate].  If the Sox do not retaliate in some way, dear readers, I fear that the team will lose cohesiveness.   By the same token, if they do retaliate, and perhaps instigate a brawl with the Twinkies, that event could solidy team unity and wake the team up for a real stretch-drive race against the Twinkies.  Down Thomas and Ordonez, the Sox need every possible edge they can get. 
 
One of Freddy Garcia's 95+ mph fastballs to Hunter's ribcage may not be the best solution.  First, it would be bad to lose Freddy early in a key game.  If Garcia is still pitching in the 7th inning with a comfortable lead, it may be an option.  But it might be even better to take revenge by playing VERY hard, clean ball.  Knocking over Guzman or Rivas at second on a double play in a clean but very hard manner.  Jose Valentin would be a good candidate for that.  Knocking over LeCroy at the plate on a sacrifice fly would also be a good choice - provided that it is a clean hit.   Konerko could slap some pretty hard tags on Twinkie runners at first base.  Hard, but clean.

More than anything, I hope the Sox take an attitude away from Hunter's cheap shot, not lumps.  Bearing down even harder to beat the Twinkies is the best response.

Phillies and White Sox Fans - Compatriots

Black Betsy's good friend and copyright lawyer extraordinaire Jule sent me an excerpt from a book he's reading on being a Philadelphia sports fan, True Believers. In that book, there is a poignant excerpt on why being a White Sox fan may be the moral equivalent of being a Phillie fan:

Unlike the Cubs and Red Sox, whose traditions of ineptness had conferred a carefully manicured aura of nobility upon them, the Phillies occupied no similar place of honor in the bosom of the American people. They were the last National League team to integrate; they had pulled off the biggest tank job in history [ed- the '64 Phillies]; they were, statistically speaking, the least successful franchise in the history of the sport. On the other hand, the White Sox weren't much better. They had not won a World Series since Pershing graciously returned Lafayette's favor [ed - this means 1917]. They had not appeared in a World Series since Batista left Cuba [ed- 1959. Batista was a right-wing dictator, not a pitcher]. The most famous player in the history of the franchise was an illiterate rustic who helped throw the 1919 World Series. And they played in a crummy stadium in a crummy neighborhood in the same city as Wrigley Field, baseball's official Vatican, Mecca, El Dorado, Avalon, Valhalla.

Ouch, that's a little harsher than I would have been, but point taken. Knowing my friend Jule and his defeatist attitude toward the Phillies, it seems that Sox fans and Phillies fans have a kindred spirit. But not so fast my friend. Those of you who are Phillies fans have experienced a World Championship (1980) and three World Series(1980, 1983 and 1993) in your lifetime.  We've got zippy.  Think of it this way: no World Series in my lifetime, and only one World Series in my father's lifetime. No World Series victories in my father's lifetime, and only one World Series victory in my grandfather's lifetime. That's not a lot to root for. The Phillies have an embarrassment of riches by comparison. Count your blessings.

As has been apparently reported by Bruce Levine on AM1000, Magglio Ordonez will be out 4-6 weeks with his knee injury. With Frank Thomas already out 2 months with his broken foot, that leave the Sox without their two best hitters until mid-September.

As my previous post below suggests, this is the kind of blow that probably will knock the Sox down to second place. But here are a few possibilities for the Sox to suck up the loss of Thomas and Ordonez: (1) Crede starts hitting the bejeezus out of the ball, and Joe Borchard puts up a reasonable .270/.330/.470 line to sop up some of the run production loss; (2) the Sox acquire a big bat - a la Larry Walker - to fill in the lost production; (3) Loaiza becomes 2003 Loaiza (runs out a 2.90 ERA and goes 9-2 the rest of the way) and Garland pitches like Good Jon Garland, while Buerhle and Garcia keep pitching like they have in their last 5 starts; and (4) win Twinkie-style, i.e., play better than your numbers and talent suggest.  (Hey, maybe the injuries to Thomas and Ordonez are just anouther PART of the Twinkies' luck this year).

I think it's a long road and a very tough battle without Ordonez and Thomas. As Mr. Spock once characterized an outcome, "it is possible, but not probable."

It is not melodramatic to say that the White Sox's 2004 season hinges (no
pun intended) on the prognosis of Magglio Ordonez's left knee. If Ordonez
is lost for the year or for a significant period of time, it is unlikely
that the Sox will be able to keep pace with and then overtake the Minnesota
Twins for the division title. There would simply be too many big holes in
the lineup to work around, even with the presence of Carl Everett. Let's
look at it from a runs created per 27 outs perspective.

Here's the fully-healthy Sox lineup:

Player	Pos.	RC/27
Rowand	CF	6.99
Valentin	SS	6.01
Ordonez	RF	5.93
Thomas	DH	9.03(!)
Konerko	1B	7.05
Lee	LF	6.78
Crede	3B	3.79
Uribe	2B	5.02
Alomar	C	3.48
Average		6.01

Yep, that's a 6-runs-per game lineup. That's an AL Central Championship lineup. Now swap out Frank and Maggs for Timo Perez and Carl Everett (using Carl's 2nd-half 2003 performance for the Sox):

Player	Pos.	RC/27
Rowand	CF	6.99
Valentin	SS	6.01
Perez	RF	3.47
Everett	DH	6.45
Konerko	1B	7.05
Lee	LF	6.78
Crede	3B	3.79
Uribe	2B	5.02
Alomar	C	3.48
Average		5.45

That's more than half a run per game less - even assuming that Carl Everett posts .301/.377/.473 numbers like he did last year. Over the course of the last 70 games, that's 35 fewer runs, which translates (roughly) into
3-5 fewer wins. That's enough to push the Twins ahead of the White Sox, even despite the Sox's easier schedule.

So, let's all hope for the best with Magglio's knee, shall we?

FURTHER THOUGHT

Now that Magglio is out, for all intents and purposes, for the rest of the year, I've seen what kind of replacements the Sox would need to make themselves whole offensively to account for the loss of Frank Thomas and Magglio Ordonez.   It's really nothing short of remarkable - the Sox would need Carlos Beltran (7.15 RC/27) and Jason Kendall (5.51 RC/27) just to make up for the loss of Big Frank and Maggs.  Ouch.

One of the things I keep track of on the sidebar of Black Betsy is the
Sox's performance in each 10 game segment (games 1-10, 11-20), etc. As I
mentioned in one of my first posts, it's nice to break the season up into
these mini-seasons to track how hot/not the team has been. My good friend
and colleague Brad (a Mets fan) looked at the Sox's first nine segments and
said this to me on IM:

Brad: so I looked at your 10 game segment list on your
blog.....
Brad: I have to say....that is the most mediocre series of 10 game
segments I could possibly imagine
Brad: I suppose one could say that 6-4s are good because, win 60% of
your games and you are in the playoffs...but still, not one
stretch where they show any dominance....

And he's exactly right. In fact, if you look closely, the Sox were pretty
good during the early part of the schedule, but peaked out at
29-21 after the first 5 ten game segments. In the 41 games
since, they are 20-21. That's OK baseball, that's .500
baseball, but it's not going to win the Sox the AL Central.
There's no question that the Sox need to step it up.

Brad's follow up points were these:

Brad: I view 16 segments half of which are 6-4s and half of
which are 5-5s as essentially just biding time to get knocked
out by a better team if you limp into the playoffs.
Brad: (only confirmed by the fact that they are 17-8 against the weak
central and under .500 against everyone else)
Brad: (add in the fact that they would most probably not have home
field any series in the playoffs and are 21-25 on the
road...yuck!)

I part ways with Brad here, because once the Sox get in the playoffs, a
different set of rules are in place. There are no fifth
starters in the playoffs. The Sox are only 7 games over .500
because their 5th starters have been horrible - 2-9. Make that
5-6, and the Sox are 10 games over .500, 2.5 games up on the
Twinkies, right there with the Rangers for home field in the
first round, and looking good going into the downhill part of
the schedule.

Carlos Lee's Walk Rate

Here I am, continuing my fascination with Carlos Lee's walk rate.  As I've previously written, El Caballo's batting eye has, how shall we say, fluctuated over the last few years:

Year	BB	AB	BB/AB
1999	13	492	.03
2000	38	572	.07
2001	38	558	.07
2002	75	492	.15
2003	37	623	.06
2004	36	349	.10

So Carlos's walk rate is not quite at its 2002 level, but it's still about 50% higher than his career rate. More importantly, Carlos seems to have put together (thus far) patience and a high average - he's hitting .304 right now. With his increase walk rate, he's up to a very nice .372 OBP - ten points higher than his previous best. Add that to a career-best .516 slugging percentage (the home runs are finally coming around), and Carlos is having his best season. He may even be worth the $6 million salary the Sox are paying him. He's even 3rd in the AL among LF in terms of VORP - neck and neck with Lew Ford (still well behind Manny Ramirez). In fact, his VORP is higher than the leftfielder on the other side of town - Moises Alou (of the .339 OBP Alou's).

Schedule Prognostications

Last year, I took a look at the comparative schedules of the Sox and Twins in early August and came to the conclusion that the Twins, despite the fact that they were 4 games behind the Royals and a couple of games behind the White Sox, would win the AL Central, most likely by 2 games or so.  They wound up winning it by 4 games, but one Sox win and one Twin loss would have made the prediction dead-on.

I've done the same this year on a spreadsheet, which I'd be happy to e-mail to anyone if they want to play with the projections.  This year, based on the upcoming schedules (and taking into account road and home splits), I think the Sox will finish 2 games up on the Twins, due to the Twins' schedule being about 2 games harder than the Sox's schedule.  Note also that 6 of the 9 Sox/Twins games are in US Cellular, which bodes well for the Sox.  

 

The Rash Breaks Out
 
Well, Willie Harris has gone and done it again.  After his bat slumbered through most of July, Willie got on base 5 times last night against the Rangers, going 2 for 3 with 3 bases on balls.  Contrary to his nature, he even managed to get an extra base hit (his 10th of the season), creeping his isolated slugging (slugging minus batting average) to  .048.  That ISO puts him roughly in the same class as Mike Caruso (although that's a little unfair to Slappy, his career ISO was .063).  
 
As much as I am on Willie's case, the Sox need him to be an effective leadoff hitter.  He does actually manage to take his share of walks, with 32 in 231 at-bats.  That's a solid walk rate, and a .358 OBP is at the low end of serviceable for a leadoff man that has no power.  If Willie gets on base from the leadoff spot, the Sox tend to win.  Willie's problem is that he tends to get on base in bunches, rather than a consistent 2-3 times per game.  Consistency is the key; if he gets on base 2 or more times in 70% of the Sox's games, he'll be a very, very good leadoff man.
 
Jose Hitting Lefty - Midseason Update
 
Apropos of Jose Valentin's two-run homer off of A's ace lefty Mark Mulder on Sunday, here's another update on how Jose is doing with his lefty-only experiment.
 
Here's a reminder of his three-year splits as a right handed hitter against lefties:
 

AB	AVG	OBP	SLG
217	.157	.224	.267

And now Jose as a lefty against lefties this year:

AB	AVG	OBP	SLG
217	.183	.264	.354

Still not terrific, but a more than 20% improvement in OPS, .618 vs. .491. He's gone from a pitcher-type performance against lefties to more of a Timo Perez-type performance. Again, kudos for an old shortstop learning new tricks.

// posted by SuperNoVa @ 12:51 PM (0) comments

Houston, Hello.

Black Betsy is coming to you live from Houston. After a successful swing through Chicago where I attended the Sox's 3-2 victory over Seattle on Saturday night, I headed to Houston on Sunday to attend the All-Star Game and accompanying events.

Here are a couple of notes on Saturday night's game, since it was the first game I saw at U.S. Cellular Field since 2002. I've always liked the Cell, and never saw what problems people had with it. Certainly, I've only sat in the upper deck once, and it is ridiculously steep. But the sight lines and the feel of the Cell are just as good as any other park I've been it. It doesn't have the exposed brick or quirks of the newer parks, but it is a very, very good place to watch a game. And the new renovations do give it a little bit cozier feel. But the food is second to none in the Major Leagues.

I was surprised to see Joe Borchard in right - since I was away from home, I didn't hear that Frank had gone on the DL. Joe Borchard then surprised me by taking a walk in his first at bat. Of course, after Thornton had walked 3 guys in a row, Borchard swung at the first pitch against him with the bases loaded and two outs. I'm not sure why Ozzie did not give him the take sign on that one.

The offense was pretty pathetic against Thornton, who had a pretty good fastball and looked like he had decent stuff - except for his lack of command. They followed that up with a pretty poor performance against Moyer (only 5 hits) on Sunday. I can see how hitting against two very different left handers on a night/day game would be discombobulating. Hopefully, they'll come out firing when they get back on Thursday.
Nevertheless, it's good for the Sox to be in first place going into the break, even if they are only 8 games over the .500 mark.

I went to the Futures Game on Sunday, where Arnie Munoz was the lone Sox representative - because of the Freddy Garcia trade. Former Sox prospect Jeremy Reed started in Center Field for the USA team - further showing off his value (although I think he was CF by default). He grounded out in his only at bat. Life after Reed is hard, indeed.

The celebrity softball game was...interesting. It was emceed by a local DJ named "Outlaw Dave." 'Nuff said. Dave, it's SESS-il Fielder, not SEE-cil Fielder. And for those forming a softball team in the Hollywood Hills, do not put Matthew Modine on the left side of the infield.

The Home Run Derby is really fantastic. I didn't think it would be as thrilling as it was. Lance Berkman put on a show in the second round - hitting home run after home run out of the stadium. It was a really awesome display. Miguel Tejada just got hot and won it, but Berkman's show really created a huge buzz.

A Note On Black Betsy

I've been fairly busy at work in the last few weeks, thus decreasing the number of posts on Black Betsy. That's not going to get any better, because I am headed to Chicago for the weekend, and then to Houston for the All-Star Game. During my stay in Chicago, I'm going to Saturday night game against the Mariners. Thankfully, Mark Buerhle will go to the bump that game, giving me a much better chance of seeing a Sox victory.

During my absence (through next wednesday), who knows, maybe Aaron Stigberg will make a post or two. What say you, Aaron?

Total Disaster Averted - But Trouble Is Brewing

"Watching" the game on ESPN.com today was excrutiating. I had to turn it "off" after the Sox were down 5-2 when Loaiza had given up 3 runs after 2 outs in the top of the 4th. Not only had I given up on the game - something that I wouldn't have done early in the season - but I was starting to worry that the Sox were falling apart in such a way that they would dig a hole for 2004 they couldn't get out of.

Lo and behold, when I checked the score again, they had tied the game up at 8 in the bottom of the 8th. And they did it against no one less than F-Rod. They also did it without a home run barrage - the only home run the Sox hit was Carlos Lee's 2-run shot in the first, well before the comeback began. The bullpen pitched well, too. Jackson and Cotts managed not to pour any gasoline on the fire, and only Loaiza was charged with any runs.

But there is a reason to be concerned even with the losing streak ending - Ozzie. Quite frankly, he seems like he's coming unhinged. He may be trying a little too hard to shake things up, such that he's actually hurting the club. He had already planned to chew out the players in a meeting after the game if they lost:

"They should thank God that they won this game," Guillen said. "Because they were going to have the biggest meeting they ever had in their career.

"We were going to be here for a little while and talk about baseball. We were going to send the wives home because it was going to be a long one."

A knock-down, drag-out kind of meeting, though, is probably not going to turn the Sox around. When did a team ever turn itself around after being yelled at? Especially if the team is in a hitting slump; pressing it is only likely to make it worse. Ozzie's focus earlier in the season was to loosen the team up, not tighten them up through a meeting.

There's more to Ozzie's erratic behavior. He got into a feud with Scott Schoeneweis in the media after Schoeneweis spoke up about being upset about possibly being taken out of the rotation. It's a little unusual for a manager to speak to a player through the media; managers generally talk directly to the players. I've never been a fan of issues being aired through the media - there simply isn't any advantage to talking to the media before talking to a player/manager. [Truth be told - I think that Schoeneweis had a point. You don't lose your spot because you've been injured, and he hadn't pitched any worse than Garland to that point)

Guillen also has put out some bizarre lineups during the last 6 games. He put Jamie Burke in the DH spot. Joe Crede moved up to the 5 hole. Timo Perez fills the lead-off spot. These lineups are a far cry from the solid lineup assembled earlier in the year. Ozzie's spot starts of Ross Gload and Timo Perez and Jamie Burke looked brilliant earlier in the year when those players were producing beyond any practical expectations. Now that they've come back down to Earth, Ozzie shouldn't fly off the handle and start calling meetings. After all, the lineup that got beat 12-0 on Tuesday does not have a lot of runs creation potential:

Player	RC/27
J. Uribe	5.4
A. Rowand	6.9
C. Lee	5.8
P. Konerko	7.3
J. Crede	4.1
J. Valentin	6.2
J. Burke	5.0
T. Perez	3.9
S. Alomar	4.0
Total	5.4

The total RC/27 outs is a little deceiving because Burke, Uribe and Perez haven't been productive lately. In fact, Uribe's RC/27 was 3.5 in June. Since their hot early Junes, Perez and Burke haven't done much either.

This is not the kind of lineup Ozzie can blame for not scoring. The blame lies more on the pitching staff- Loaiza has been subpar over his last four starts (game scores of 26, 38, 39 and 10), Schoeneweis was a disaster in his first start back, and Garcia has been less than spectacular in his two starts. Garland and Buerhle have been OK, but two starters cannot carry a rotation.

I had concerns about Ozzie before the season. He was inexperienced and I thought his style of play - avoiding the base on balls at all cost - would be a negative. He was a pleasant surprise with his upbeat attitude during the early part of the season. Let's hope he gets that positive attitude back and the Sox can turn it around after the All-Star Break.

Willie Harris - The Rash

I've called Willie Harris the Rash before, because he seems to flare up and get hot, only to quickly subside as if he was never there. His month by month stats show you how inconsistent Willie's been:

Month	AVG.	OBP.	SLG.	OPS
April	.254	.299	.324	.623
May	.384	.439	.438	.877
June	.182	.316	.197	.513
July	.125	.125	.125	.250

But he's been even streakier than that. In his hottest month (May), Willie was 28 for 73. But 17 of those hits came in two short stretches (a 9 for 12 stretch May 8, 9, 11 and a 8 for 19 from May 27-30). That's 17 of 31 in an overall 29 for 73 month, leaving him 12 for 42 (.285).

Here's the bottom line. Willie Harris often is asked to hit in the leadoff spot, which demands consistentcy. I've never been a big Willie Harris fan (I was a big Ray Durham fan, and Willie had the unfortunate position of trying to replace him), and this kind of performance isn't going to win me over. Even though, in the aggregate, his .345 OBP is not bad, his ability to get on base is so erratic as to demand that he not hit in the leadoff spot. Until he gets on base more consistently (and at a higher rate), Willie can't be considered a long term solution at 2B or CF.

The Bigger Picture To The Garcia Trade

I found two interesting posts in two different parts of the AL Central Blogosphere (the strongest blogosphere in the AL) about the significance of the Freddy Garcia trade beyohd this year. In fact, these posters see the Freddy Garcia as a potential turning point for the White Sox franchise.

First, Kevin Dever over at 35th Street Mess:

There’s no denying that the Sox gave up a lot, and in reality too much, to acquire Freddy Garcia. The landscape of baseball has changed enough the last two years to make me wonder though how much the losses of Reed and Olivo actually will hurt them.
***
The new way of doing business in baseball will reward teams with financial flexibility. The Yankees always have this flexibility, but for a team like the Sox it means the fewer long-term contracts the better. Losing Reed and Olivo won’t be as bad as it seems as long as the Sox maintain the financial flexibility to fill the holes their departure creates on a year-to-year basis until they develop their next prized hitter and solid regular at whatever positions it may be. And with $30 million tied up in five players (Buehrle, Konerko, Lee, Marte, and Thomas) they will have money to spend this winter. Whatever one thinks of the Sox financial situation, their payroll assuredly can be the highest in the division.

I'm not quite sure how the Garcia trade gives the Sox financial flexibility, but I do agree that the low amount of money the Sox have tied up next year is an asset. And the Sox taking on some salary with the good core the Sox have is a good thing.

Twins Geek is a little more in-depth, and a little more dramatic:

[Based on the Garcia trade,] The White Sox could make a run, not just into the playoffs, but through the playoffs. Perceived as being close, management could open up their checkbook, keep their core players, and add some difference makers. A franchise that hasn't won a World Series in nearly 90 years, and which is really the only large market in the AL Central, invests an extra $20-$30 million in their team.

The Twins, without a stadium or a TV network, don't match that spending level. They end up in second place for a couple of years, and now the shoe is on the other foot....

Whether it was necessary or not, I think Kenny Williams has anointed these next three months to be the defining moment for the White Sox of this decade. He'll be looking for Ozzie Guillen, his players and especially Freddy Garcia to respond.

(Note - I didn't include Twins Geek's bad scenario - it's ugly). But there is a good point to be made here; a drive by the Sox into and through at least a round of the playoffs may produce the same effect as in 2000, when the Sox added David Wells. Now, even though the Wells move didn't work (Wells' back and dedication to the Sox were less than terrific), it was a move to make the Sox much better before the season, something that hasn't happened since.

I do enjoy thinking about the possibility that the Sox could have a playoff run and then get better next year. But let's have the Sox get to the playoffs first.

The Decline Of Juan Uribe

To douse a little water on the enthusiasm created by the sweep of the Twins, I note that Juan Uribe's production has, quite predictably, declined since the beginning of the season. Part of this decline has been masked due to the fact that he's still gotten some big hits for the Sox - including a key 2-run homer on Monday in the Sox's 6-2 win. But there's no question there's been a drop off:

Month	AB	AVG.	OBP	SLG.	OPS
April	61	0.393	0.439	0.590	1.030
May	109	0.303	0.361	0.523	0.884
June	108	0.222	0.276	0.444	0.720

The .276 OBP in June is not going to cut it, especially since Juan tends to hit at the top of the lineup. His overall average is down below .290 now, and if he keeps this trend up, he'll be down near his historic .250 average. I hope the hot start he had doesn't convince Sox management that he can step in and fill Jose Valentin's shoes next year when Jose becomes a free agent. Jose is much too valuable offensively (and defensively, I think, he's pretty good). If Juan keeps this up, he may provide the compelling reason for keeping Jose.

With 1 being suicidal depression and 10 being ecstatic joy, the completion of the sweep against the Twinkies today in the TwinkieDome is at least a 14. Maybe 15, and probably the highest regular season high since the Sox swept the Indians and Yankees on the road in 2000.

Good stuff.