Black Betsy

The Sox And OBP - A Lesson

There is a fantastic article at the Hardball Times about how teams score runs and why, despite the fact that the White Sox hit a lot of home runs and have a very high batting average with Runners In Scoring Position, they are very poor at scoring runs. The bottom line is On Base Percentage.

Here is the most prescient quote:

The White Sox are the truly odd team on this chart -- they lead the league in batting with RISP, but they have the third-least total number of runners in scoring position.

BA with RISP tends to be equal to overall BA. In the AL, teams are batting .271 overall, and .271 with RISP. But the Sox are batting .291 with RISP vs. .268 overall. In other words they've been lucky by hitting well in clutch situations, despite what you may have heard about injuries to their top hitters.

In general, runners get into scoring position one of three ways:

• - 20% get there by reaching first (via a single or walk) and moving on by stealing a base or by a teammate's "productive out".


• - 30% get there directly by hitting a double or triple.


• - 50% get there by reaching first, and subsequently moving on via a positive contribution (hit, walk, etc.) from a teammate.

When first hired, White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen talked a lot about getting his runners in motion, but the Sox don't reach first base enough in the first place; they are third from last in singles, walks and HBP combined. They've batted well with RISP and hit a lot of home runs, but reaching scoring position has been their problem.

This problem, of course, is exacerbated by the fact that Ozzie Guillen has started the Low-On-Base-Percentage-All-Stars over the last several days and weeks.

Moral of the story. The Sox need guys who can get on base. Rinse and repeat: The Sox need guys who can get on base.

The Number One Free Agent Target

Brad Radke presents the best available free agent for the White Sox this offseason. There are several reasons for this:

(1) Anti-Twins Factor. Very rarely do teams have the ability to make their own team better and their main opposition worse in the same free agent signing. Right now, the Twinkies have one great starter (Santana), one very good starter (Radke), one marginal starter (Silva) and two big holes in their rotation (Lohse and Mulholland). Switch Radke to the Sox, and the Sox are now Garcia-Buerhle-Radke-Contreras-Garland. The Twinkies would have Santana-Silva-Lohse-Mulholland-????? And, remember, Mulholland isn't exactly a long-term solution. Most likely, the Twinkies would have a 4 and a 5 spot to fill next year.

(2) Dependability Factor. One of the things that seems to be lacking in the Sox's rotation is dependability. Jon Garland can pitch extremely well, then have a terrible game. Radke has higher lows and lower highs than the rest of the Sox's rotation. Here are his game scores this year: 41, 34, 78, 19, 44, 69, 63, 53, 46, 66, 63, 49, 68, 67, 51, 50, 20, 83, 58, 16, 61, 70, 46, 78, 52, 65, 62, 7. Other than an erratic start, Radke has been a model of consistentcy. He had 12 consecutive starts with a game score of 44 or better. Of his 28 starts, he's had only 5 starts with a game score below 40. Compare that to Mark Buerhle, who has 8 starts with game scores below 40. Radke has not had two game scores below 40 in a row - and after the first 5 starts of the year, Radke has not had two game scores below 50 in a row. That's a model of consistentcy that the Sox desparately need.

(3) Radke Will Be Cheap Compared To His Value. Radke's current salary is $10,750,000. This high level of salary - especially with the increases due to some of the other Twins players - seems to make it unlikely that the Twinkies will tie up a lot of money in Radke going into the offseason. Arguably, his salary this year limited the Twins' ability to take on additional payroll for the stretch. In addition, since he cannot be offered less that 80% of his salary by the Twins ($8,600,000) in arbitration, there is a chance that the Twins might not offer him arbitration, greatly reducing the chances that he'll resign with them.

Now, $10.75 million is a lot of money, but if you add in the fact that spending money on Radke makes the Twins worse (see above), he's a lot more valuable to the White Sox than any other team. In fact, there's an argument that he's worth premium value to the White Sox because of this - not only does he add $8-$9 million worth of performance to the White Sox, he takes away that value from the Twins.

Let's assume his value over a replacement player for the Sox (i.e., a 5th starter) is a modest total of an extra 4 wins per year. Let's assume he has the same value to the Twins - 4 extra wins per year. Assuming the Twinkies rely on their farm system to fill Radke's spot, that takes away 4 wins from the Twins as well. All of a sudden, Radke is worth 8 games in the standing against the Twinkies. 8 games per year is Pedro-Martinez/Randy Johnson territory, and they command far higher salaries. One might say that Radke at $10 million per year is actually $3-$4 million below his actual value to the Sox.

There are no lack of questions regarding Radke. He has given up a lot of homers in his career, which could hurt him at US Cellular Field (5.18 career ERA there). He's 32 years old, and likely won't be the same pitcher at the end of a contract (that really hurts, since I'm 32 myself). But I just don't think that the Sox can afford NOT to sign Brad Radke if he's available in the $9-$10 million range.

Low OBP All-Stars Make Appearance In Cleveland

Together again for the very first time....the Chicago White Sox low on base percentage all stars! They may be "grinders," but they sure can't grind themselves to first base! See them ground out! See them fly out! See them hack away at first pitches! But you will not, you cannot see them get on base!

I think, with the exception of Konerko and possibly Harris and Gload, yesterday's starting lineup consists exactly of the members of the 2004 White Sox who I would NOT like to see next year:

Player	Season OBP	Career OBP
Harris	.352	.306
Uribe	.317	.304
Konerko	.360	.344
Gload	.341	.326
Valentin	.288	.322
Perez	.291	.308
Davis	.277	.310
Borchard	.243	.244
Crede	.294	.303

What happened to Ozzie and Kenny's interest in guys who get on base?

Note to Phil Rogers, who wrote:

After all, the White Sox are hitting .255 with a .314 on-base percentage in the
second half. Both of those figures rank 12th in the AL.

It's time to audition the two in-house candidates at the position—Juan Uribe, who has had
only 26 starts at short this year, and Wilson Valdez, a solid fielder who is hitting .310 in 61 games at Triple-A Charlotte. Guillen worked with him in Florida.

Here's a hint, Phil. Juan Uribe has a .314 OBP. He's part of the problem, not part of the solution. Wilson Valdez? He's 26 and in his what, 2nd year of AAA? He has 8 walks against 240 at bats. Again, not part of the solution.

And Ozzie Guillen, of the .287 career OBP Guillens, is not exactly the guy you want working with your hitters to teach them to get on base. (Note, Greg Walker himself was not that steller in getting on-base either. Try Harold Baines as a guy who knew how to get on base. Heck, even Joey Cora knew how to get on base at a .348 clip).

// posted by SuperNoVa @ 9:46 AM (0) comments

Sox Donuts

On Soxtalk.com, there is currently an interesting debate concerning Joe Crede going on right now. But beyond that, a poster named "TLAK" posted a great table of the number of "Donuts" by each Sox player thus far this year. TLAK defines "Donuts" as having more than 1 AB and having 0 hits and 0 walks.

No surprise that Frank Thomas has the lowest percentage of donuts - failing to get on base in only 7% of his games.

There are some surprises however. Despite his .370 OBP, Aaron Rowand has a slightly higher percentage of Donut games than Willie Harris. For the most part, Sox players are between 20-25%. Joe Crede, however, is in a league by himself. He has failed to get on base via a hit or walk in almost 40% of his games. That's atrocious, making his .290 OBP look even worse (if that is possible). In essence, Crede is too inconsistent to be valuable. By comparison, Jose Valentin has a .295 or so OBP but manages to get on base in more than 75% of his games. That extra bit of consistency makes Valentin a much more valuable player to the Sox.

More 5th Starter Frustration

Well, Jason Grilli was less than impressive in his Sox debut tonight. The failures of the Sox's fifth starters are somewhat comical at this point - they just seem to be throwing batting practice.

How bad is it? It's monumentally bad. The Sox's fifth starters have a collective 13.50 ERA in the first inning. That's unimaginable - the Sox are in a 1.5 run hole on average in the first inning. Throw out Danny Wright, whose tenure looks downright promising four months later, and the ERA is 14.14. Jon Rauch, for all his negatives, actually never gave up a run in his first 3 innings of his starts.

In the second inning, the 5th starters have an ERA of 11.81. In the third inning, it is only a 4.50 ERA. All tolled, the Sox's fifth starters have a 9.93 ERA in the first three innings - meaning the Sox have been in a 3-run hole because of their fifth starters.

It's been ugly.

Meanwhile..... Brandon McCarthy won his third consecutive start tonight in Birmingham, going 7 innings, giving up 4 hits and 2 walks. He also struck out 9 and gave up a solo shot for his only earned run. He's now 17-5 on the season between 3 levels - low A, high A, and AA. He hasn't lost since June 5.

Walking In The Minors Honor Roll

Here's the latest update on the Sox farm hands that are walking more than once per ten at bats. As always, the list is too short. But you have to like that Brian Anderson is on the list - he's one of the Sox's better prospects. If you used Joe Borchard's MLB stats, he would make the list, too, although he falls just short on his Charlotte-only numbers with 30 walks and 301 at bats. I haven't included the rookie leagues (Great Falls and Bristol), but, believe me, you aren't missing much:

Player	Level(s)	BB	AB	Rate
Ryan Hankins	AAA	28	278	0.10
Scott Bikowski	AAA/AA	46	272	0.17
Brian Anderson	AA/A+	45	427	0.11
Andy Gonzalez	AA/A+	57	381	0.15
Carlos Maldonado	AA	48	347	0.14
Tommy Nicholson	AAA/AA/A+	37	303	0.12
Rich Paz	AAA/AA	49	277	0.18
Rob Sasser	AA	44	379	0.12
Mike Spidale	AA	56	447	0.13
Thomas Brice	A+/A-	41	378	0.11
Ricardo Nanita	A+/A-	45	376	0.12
Casey Rogowski	A+	81	427	0.19
Leo Daigle	A-	43	405	0.11
Cory Haggerty	A-	34	225	0.15
Chris Young	A-	58	435	0.13

Kudos to Casey Rogowski for walking more than everyone in the Sox organization except for Frank Thomas. It would be nice for your terrific season at Winston-Salem to go rewarded next year. Special mention to Mike Spidale, who not only has 56 walks, but also has endured getting hit by 11 pitches to score himself a .388 OBP. His motto should be "Just Get On Base, Baby!" His OBP would be over .390 were he not a team player who leads the Barons in Sacrifice Flies. No wonder he was the Barons' MVP.

Hard To Keep The Interest Level Up

It's becoming harder and harder to keep my interest level up in the White Sox now that they are hopelessly out of first place. One of the reasons is that it's hard to like the team on the field. Right now, the Sox have exactly two regulars - Paul Konerko and Willie Harris - who have a walk rate of .1 BB/AB or greater. The team is really just hacking away right now.

Moreover, there aren't any new young players to watch develop. Joe Borchard is up, but he seems to be moving in place. I like Borchard a lot; he's reportedly one of the hardest workers on the team and a dedicated professional. I wish that hard work was paying off. Willie Harris has been around a while, so it's hard to see him as a new exciting player. Joe Crede is in his third season. There isn't a lot of new blood on this team.

And the pitching has been awful. Jon Garland has been infuriating. He keeps getting beat on his fourth best pitch - his changeup. Freddy Garcia is giving up a lot of longballs, Buerhle has not kept up his hot 9-2 start, and Contreras just had a 7-walk performance. And the 5th starter situation is horrific, punctuated again tonight by Josh Stewart.

I'd love for the Sox to play September in a way that will get me excited about 2005. But if Guillen puts out a lineup including a Ross Gload, a Timo Perez, a Roberto Alomar or a Juan Uribe, it's just hard to watch.

Borchard Watch

Joe Borchard did NOT strike out tonight. I repeat, Joe Borchard did NOT strike out. That is all.

Tumbling Towards Fourth

More ugliness from the White Sox in the form of a 7-0 blanking at the hands of the Detroit Tigers last night. Lowlights included Jose Contreras walking seven Tigers, fourteen Sox strikeouts, and nine men left on base. Promisingly, Joe Borchard only struck out once. Woo hoo!

The Sox are now 60-62, just 2 games in front of the fourth place Tigers - a team that won fewer than 50 games last year. There is some significance there that should not be lost upon the White Sox.

One, fourth place is a rare and strange position for the White Sox. They haven't finished worse than third since 1989, when an abysmal team finished last in the AL West by going 69-92. The White Sox have only had 3 seasons under .500 since.

There's nothing like a collapse of the existing team to shake the organization up. Since 1990, the Sox have essentially been in a series of adding players around a shifting core. It was Thomas-Ventura-Fernandez-McDowell in the early 1990's. Then it was Thomas-Ventura-Fernandez-Alvarez in the mid-1990's. Then came the phase of Thomas-Ordonez-Konerko-Lee, an essentially all-hitting-get-what-you-can-pitching-wise team. Now, a new phase might begin built around pitching. Kenny Williams has talked about acquiring a #1 starter in the offseason to complement the Buerhle/Garcia/Contreras trio that is signed through 2006. Ordonez and Valentin are likely to be gone, and next year is likely the last for Frank Thomas in a White Sox uniform (he's got a $10 million option in 2006, but the Sox can buy him out for $4 million or so, I believe). The Thomas-Ordonez-Konerko-Lee formula (with the exception of 2000) hasn't worked, so it probably is time to move on (and maybe it is also time to move the fences back at the Cell).

Two, the Detroit Tigers provide a nice example of how to rebuild a team quickly. They made some excellent veteran acquisitions in the offseason - Rondell White, Carlos Guillen, and Pudge Rodgriguez. Now, Guillen's season is somewhat unprecedented for him, but in Seattle he did put up a .359 OBP in 2003. Rondell White has always gotten on base, and Pudge Rodriguez has been an excellent hitter for some time. Guillen and Rodriguez are up-the-middle players, which affords them the luxury of carrying a first baseman like Carlos Pena. They also have developed their own young pitching, albeit with the luxury of playing in a park that forgives a lot of mistakes.

I hope the brush with fourth place gives the White Sox something to think about and forces them to regroup. Up the middle, they currently are weak. Rowand has played excellently in centerfield (beyond most reasonable expectations), but Jose Valentin has been an OBP hole at SS, Willie Harris has been famously inconsistent, Roberto Alomar is a satire of his former self and, a couple of good weeks from Ben Davis notwithstanding, the Sox haven't gotten a lot of offensive firepower from the catching position. It's time to upgrade the up-the-middle positions so that the Sox can succeed in the sorry AL Central.

More Ugliness / Rest Of The Year

Well, Mark Buerhle didn't pitch so well on four days' rest. With the Twins beating Cleveland, it looks like the Sox will be 6 games back - and looking forward to next season. With the Sox having spent a good deal of their treasure (read: minor league talent) trading for Carl Everett and Roberto Alomar in a last ditch effort to win the division, the last month or so of the season is going to be frustrating.

The question is, then, what the Sox can accomplish during the remainder of the 2004 season. Here are a few quick thoughts.

• Find The Real Joe Borchard. If Joe Borchard is really going to be a regular for the White Sox in the future, the Sox should try to find out whether he can hack it as a regular by having him play every day for the rest of the year. Give him some reps, let him get comfortable and see if he can produce. If he can't, it is probably time to cut bait on Joe. I really would like Borchard to succeed - I've heard nothing but good things about his intelligence and work ethic - but I'm really doubtful. But that doesn't mean he shouldn't be given a long look and a good chance.
• Get On Jon Garland. Jon Garland's performance in his 3rd year in the Sox's rotation has left a lot to be desired. He's had some terrific games, some terrible games, and a lot of mediocre games. He seems to get beat consistently on his 3rd or 4th best pitches. It may be time for some tough love with Jon - telling him he can't shake off pitches and calling for sinker after sinker down in the zone. Make him see how effective he can be with his best stuff. Maybe he can learn something.
• Turn Willie Harris Loose. I'd just like to see Guillen give Harris the steal sign almost every time that he is on base. I think Willie is a smart guy and learns from his mistakes. He certainly appears to be afraid to make them on the bases. Make him learn by doing. Make him learn pitchers' moves and how and when to steal and how not to steal. If he gets on base at a .360 clip next year and steals 75 bases with a high success rate, he will really be an asset to the club.

Examining The Rash

I have something of a fascination with how streaky Willie Harris is when it comes to getting on base. The Rash seems to flare up by getting on base 4 or 5 times in one game, then gets on base once over the course of the next few games.

Well, I actually looked at Willie's game log to see a break down of the amount of times he's gotten on base in games where he's had more than one plate appearance. And, quite frankly, I don't know what to make of this data.

Times on Base	0	1	2	3	4	5
Games	15	25	23	5	4	3

It concerns me that the Rash does not reach base in 20% of his starts. It also concerns me that about 40% of Harris' times on base occurred in just 15 games, another 20%. So 40% of the time, it's sink or swim for Harris. In 41 starts since June 1, he hasn't reached base 11 times, over 25% of the time. That is not so good.

I'd like to know how this compares to other leadoff hitters in the league. My hunch is that the best leadoff hitters have most of their starts in the 2-3 times on base range.

Aaron Rowand

If you only read a couple of White Sox blogs, or maybe you only read this White Sox blog, you should read this entry from The Cheat's blog about Aaron Rowand.

Put simply, The Cheat makes the case that over the last 162 games, Aaron Rowand has been the among the best 4 or 5 all-around centerfielders in the major leagues. He's posted a .946 OPS (.326/.371/.575) over his last 405 AB. His range has been excellent, his arm has been very good, and he generally makes the plays on defense. He's been impressive.

405 at bats is a significant number of at bats for such a perfomance - it's hard to believe that such a line over 405 AB is a total fluke. I doubt Rowand will put up a career .946 OPS (a large number of those 405 AB are against lefties, and he's often sat against righties over the last year), but at an .850 OPS (assuming .340/.510), he would be among the top 10 or so centerfielders in the game, and extremely valuable to the White Sox as they look for strength up the middle.

I Thought This Game Was Hard

Not a bad first 42 at bats forB.J. Upton, eh? Not too bad of a last 10 games, either (.500/.524/.850).

Maybe in 3-4 years, the White Sox will be happy they aren't in a division with the Devil Rays.

Mark Buerhle Gets Some Love From BP

For those of you who have not seen it, here's the latest Baseball Prospectus Triple Play featuring the White Sox. Notably, BP mentions that while Mark Buerhle's performance seemed to be eroding from 2001-2003, he's pepped up this year.

After his last few starts this season, Buehrle has looked significantly better than any point in his career. His equivalent strikeout rate has jumped from 4.5 to 5.9, higher than any of his previous three full seasons; his walk rate has dropped from 2.2 to 1.4, a career low. The only reason Buerhle hasn't been even better than his earlier years in run prevention has been his higher batting average on balls in play, currently .308.

Buerhle's improved strikeout rate has not gone unnoticed, and it is a welcome sign. His decreasing walk rate is also good, and it is safe to say that Buerhle has re-established himself as one of the top 3 or 4 lefties in the American League (with Mulder, Santana, and Sabathia) this year.

It should also be noted that BP does criticize Kenny Williams' trades for Everett, Contreras and Alomar, arguing that:

Williams has strapped the Sox to Contreras' albatross contract, a salary based on nothing other than George Steinbrenner's ego and Cuban mystique. Meanwhile, he dealt Jon Rauch and Gary Majewski, two pitchers who aren't going to be stars, but could very easily become cheap, decent replacement pitchers or fourth starters, something that's much more valuable than two months of Everett's time. This winter, when the Sox have trouble signing quality players to fill holes, ChiSox fans will have to comfort themselves with the fact that the team finished five games behind Minnesota instead of seven.

I'm not in agreement with BP on this one. One, they've got it wrong on the facts; Carl Everett is signed through 2005. So it's not two months of Everett's time. And Everett does provide a replacement for Ordonez going Second, Contreras does have a high potential upside, and getting away from New York has seemed to help him so far. He'll pitch against weaker competition in the AL Central, and he seems to thrive on weaker competition. If he's a solid number three starter - 4.00 ERA or better, 12-15 wins, this is money well spent, especially since they only gave up two months of the struggling Esteban Loaiza in return.

Even The Expos Deserve A Blog

Well, for another blog post, I'll just do what I do best - steal from Jule. Jule sent me a great e-mail today, which I'll share with everyone.

So, my Expos crack got me thinkin' -- Are there actually any Expos blogs out there? Sure enough there is. And the first one I find is quite good, for several reasons:

-- Excellent modest slogan -- "If the Royals have a blog, so should the Expos" [Black Betsy: this one is too good for words. How about this slogan for the Cleveland Indians "Everyone has a chance in this division"]

-- A predictable but informative opening entry about how good the 94 Expos were, winning 110 out of 162 games from late '93 to early '95. I suspect this theme is worn out in Expo BlogLand.

-- A lively debate about whether Youppi, the mascot, is gay. [Youppi is more popular than any Expo player, I believe. I went to a celebration of Youppi's birthday in Montreal in 1999, and it actually drew a 10,000+ crowd against the Pirates. The Expos lost. I have no opinion on whether Youppi is gay, but if he is, there's nothing wrong with that]

-- A close monitoring of the ESPN power poll, and the Expos recent modest ascent up it.

Black Betsy, now speaking in the third person, notes that should the Expos move to D.C. or Northern Virginia, Black Betsy will finally have an allegiance to a National League team. Although my Cub-hating has waxed an waned over the years, I've never picked up a National League team consistently. During the 1980's, when Continental Cablevision brought WOR to Calumet City, I cheered for the Mets, even rooting for them against the Red Sox in 1986. I picked up the Astros for a while in the mid-90's out of respect for Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, et al, but never really followed them closely. I've like the San Francisco Giants since about 1987 and Will Clark and the original RBI baseball (which warrants a post in itself).

So maybe Black Betsy will become a joint Sox/Spos blog next year. How about BlackBetsy/GrandeOrange?

// posted by SuperNoVa @ 1:15 PM (1) comments

Black Betsy Sucks!

I know, I haven't posted in a week. But the Sox tend to take weeks off at a time, now, don't they? In fact, since I last posted, they went an unremarkable 4-3. Not quite lighting up the world, now, are they?

And hey, remember what Brad said about mediocrity. They added another 4-6 mark in their 11th 10-game segment to the season, meaning that they have:

five 6-4 stretches;

three 5-5 stretches;

two 4-6 stretches; and

one 3-7 stretch.

Mediocrity is the Sox's middle name. (And you thought it was "White," as in "Freaking White Sox!")

That's not going to cut it, folks. Winning teams have dominant stretches during the season - they go 8-2 a couple of times, 7-3 a bunch of times, and even may go 9-1. The Sox haven't done that. They haven't even put together a 7-3 ten-game segment. What that tells me is that they simply haven't been able to put themselves on a roll, which makes me wonder about how uneven the Sox's talent is. Very good players are surrounded by less-than-replacement-level players. That's not the recipe for being consistent, or being consistently good.

Cliff Politte - One Inning Pitcher

One of Hawk Harrelson's favorite things to say on the air is that a manager needs to learn what a player can and cannot do, and once he learns that, he should not ask players to do something they cannot do. Mostly, he's talking about bunting when he says that, but that proverb should apply in every situation.

One of the things I've observed over the year is that while Cliff Politte might look great in his first inning of work, if the Sox try to stretch him into a second inning, he tends to get hammered. Since this was only my observation, I thought I'd check it against his stats this year.

And the data shows that, indeed, Politte gets especially wild and hit hard when the Sox ask him to come out and pitch in a second inning. For whatever reason, stamina, mindset, or something else, Politte doesn't respond well when he's sat down after completing an inning.

Over the course of the season, Politte has pitched in more than 1 inning 14 times. I broke Politte's performance in those outings down into two categories: Situation 1, where he comes in mid-inning in his first inning of work, and Situation 2, in which he comes in to start his first inning of work. I then aggregated Politte's performances in those second (or third) innings by category. [Note - The first game of the year (the debacle at Kansas City) fell into both categories - he came in for one out in the 7th, pitched the entire 8th, and then started the 9th. I put the 8th inning in "Situation 1" and the 9th inning in "Situation 2."]

Here's what I found:

Category	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	ERA
Season	41	39	23	22	21	37	4.83
Situation 1	5	4	2	2	6	3	3.60
Situation 2	4 1/3	7	9	7	4	7	14.54
Total After 1st Inn.	9 1/3	11	11	10	10	10	9.64
Total 1st Inn.	31 2/3	28	12	12	11	27	3.41

As you can see, Politte has a 9+ ERA when he comes out for a second inning. Although he has done OK in Situation 1, he has done especially poorly when he has pitched a full inning before coming out for a second inning (Situation 2). His walk rate is extremely high in those second innings of work (10 in 9 1/3 inning), whereas his walk rate in his first innings (11 in 31 2/3 innings) is relatively good. His hit rate is not appreciably different in those second innings, but the large number of walks really does Politte in.

I would think by now - mid-August - Ozzie should have learned that he cannot ask Cliff Politte to pitch in more than one inning.

Not Much Going On In Charlotte

I'm not talking about Charlotte the city, which is probably lovely and charming (I've only been through the airport, which is nice, although not as good as it once was now that the NASCAR Cafe has taken their Buffalo Chicken sandwich off of the menu). I'm talking about the Charlotte Knights, the White Sox's AAA International League affiliate. Looking at the current Knights roster, it could be argued that there are only 1 or 2 "prospects" on Knights that could ever make an impact with the Sox, now that Felix Diaz and Joe Borchard are in the majors.

Let's go around the diamond. First base has been manned mostly by Mike Bell and Bobby Smith, both of whom are about 30 years old. Second base has been filled by 30-year-old Bryant Nelson who did spend some time with the Boston Red Sox. Shortstop has been split amongst a number of players, including utility man Kelly Dransfeldt and 26-year-old Wilson Valdez, whom the Sox picked up for Billy Koch. Valdez may have been a prospect for Florida at one time, but at 26 years old, he's not likely to be a starter for the Sox. Third base has largely been manned by a platoon of Dransfeldt (37 games), Bell (35), and Smith (21 games). The catching duties have been performed by Ryan Hankins, who converted into a catcher at age 27 and is playing well this year. But at 28, he's probably too old to be considered a prospect ... think Jamie Burke.

Prior to the Garcia trade, the outfield was covered by Jeremy Reed, Joe Borchard and another player. Now that they are gone, the Sox are left with Mario Valenzuela (27 years old and in his 4th season in AAA), Andres Torres (26 years old and a former .200 hitting major leaguer with the Tigers) and Reggie Taylor, another 27 year old free agent pick up (ex of the Phillies and Cincinnati Reds).

Based on this analysis, one could safely say that none of the position players on the Charlotte Roster are, in fact, "prospects" as that term is used.

The pitching staff isn't much better. The rotation right now is Jason Grilli (Rule 5 pickup from the Marlins), Josh Stewart (who had an OK run with the Sox in 2003), Tetsu Yofu (a 31-year-old), Ryan Kohlmeier (27 year old former reliever), and Arnie Munoz. Of the five starters, only 22-year-old Arnie Munoz could be considered a prospect. He didn't show it in his disastrous start in Montreal, but he has decent stuff, including a great curve ball, and could be a contributor with the Sox. The bullpen is full of re-treads, including Jose Santiago and Courtney Duncan. The lone prospect is Jeff Bajenaru, a 26-year-old reliever who tore up Birmingham this year. He's a little old to be a prospect, but he did lose a year to reconstructive surgery. Bajenaru has some pop on his fastball and has an avid following among the people who post on soxtalk.com. At best, he could be a Politte-like set up man for the Sox.

So that's it for the prospects on the Charlotte roster. One 22-year-old pitcher with a 88 mph fastball and a wicked curve and a 26-year old flamethrower. Slim pickens, to say the least.

It's unclear how much better the Charlotte roster will be next year. Former first round pick Brian Anderson would likely play centerfield in Charlotte next year, and it is likely that he will be joined in the outfield by Mike Spidale, who has little power but is getting on base at a .380 clip in Birmingham. Marginal prospect Heath Phillips (think Josh Stewart) would also be in line for a promotion, in addition to Ryan Meaux and reliever Josh Fields (the "other" Josh Fields). 2005 would have been the year for Kris Honel and Ryan Wing to pitch in AAA, but their injuries have made that unlikely. All tolled, the Charlotte roster might increase its prospect total from 2 (or, more aptly, 1 1/2) to about 5-6 in 2005.

This is, of course, a symptom of the Sox strategy of trading prospects away for players during the Sox's stretch drive. I do not regret any of those trades - they all seemed like risks I would be willing to take to help the Sox make the postseason. But the failure of the Sox to make the post season in 2003 does make those trades tougher to swallow in hindsight. But hopefully the Sox's good draft this year will replenish the system and once again the Sox will have excellent prospects at the AA and AAA level to talk about soon.

Part II - The Single Biggest Non-Trade In White Sox History

In the first post concerning the proposed trade of Joe Jackson for Babe Ruth prior to the 1920 season, I considered the relative merits of that trade. I was hesitant to come to a conclusion that Charlie Comiskey was dumb for not making that trade because it's so hard not to see the trade through the distorting effect of knowing that Ruth was the greatest hitter of all time and Jackson would be suspended after the 1920 season.

But what if Comiskey had made the trade? How would the fortunes of the White Sox and Yankees have changed? This thought experiment is simply fascinating, and I've spent a good deal of time on it.

First, obviously, you have to consider that Ruth would replace pretty much whoever was playing right field for the White Sox, or would have moved the right fielder to left field. Joe Jackson himself was a left fielder, so it seems more likely that the Sox would have shifted right fielder Nemo Liebold to left field at least for the year 1920.

After 1920, when Jackson was banned, the calculus changes somewhat. In 1921, the White Sox replaced their outfield wholesale, having acquired Harry Hooper from the Boston Red Sox for Shano Collins and Nemo Lebold prior to that season in response to the suspensions of Jackson and Happy Felsh. Hooper was an established (but not a star) player at the time, and would prove to be productive for the White Sox during his time in Chicago. Centerfield would be manned by Johnny Mostil, who also had a pretty good career for the White Sox. Bibb Falk, essentially a rookie, would play left field. This was the White Sox outfield for several years. Needless to say, adding Ruth to this outfield (and dropping Bibb Falk) would have made a dramatic improvement.

Continuing on this theme, I figured that Ruth would have replaced the following Sox outfielders during the 1920-1930 time period, and added in their (basic) runs created statistics:

Year	Player	Hits	BB	TB	At Bats	RunsCreated
1920	Jackson	218	56	336	570	147
1921	Falk	167	37	235	585	77
1922	Falk	144	27	209	483	70
1923	Falk*	84	25	129	274	87*
1924	Falk	185	47	256	526	104
1925	Falk	181	51	246	602	87
1926	Barrett*	113	25	170	368	86*
1927	Barrett	159	52	224	556	78
1928	Falk*	83	25	112	286	69*
1929	Hoffman*	87	24	122	337	57*
1930	Barnes*	66	26	95	266	56*

Some of these players played fewer than a full schedule, so the Runs Created values with asterisks are adjusted to a 550-plate appearance season.

Now, for comparison, here are Ruth's 1920-30 basic runs created statistics:

Year	Player	Hits	BB	TB	At Bats	Runs Created	Diff.
1920	Ruth	158	150	388	458	197	49
1921	Ruth	177	145	457	540	215	138
1922	Ruth	94	84	273	406	99	29
1923	Ruth	151	170	399	522	185	99
1924	Ruth	143	142	391	529	166	62
1925	Ruth	61	59	195	359	56	-31
1926	Ruth	139	144	365	495	162	76
1927	Ruth	158	137	417	540	182	104
1928	Ruth	163	137	380	536	169	101
1929	Ruth	121	72	348	499	118	60
1930	Ruth	150	136	379	518	166	109

The last column indicates how many runs Ruth would have added over the Sox players in the last chart. You can see that having Ruth in the lineup would have added an absurd number of runs to the White Sox's offense over the decade. How much difference would these runs have made to the Sox? Quite a few. I added in these runs to the White Sox's runs scored over the period, then calculated the Sox's Pythagorean record with the added runs. Over the course of the decade, I calculated the following number of additional wins for the White Sox:

Year	Run Diff.	Wins Diff.
1920	49	4
1921	138	13
1922	29	3
1923	99	13
1924	62	6
1925	-31	-3
1926	76	7
1927	104	10
1928	101	10
1929	60	6
1930	109	13

I did the same with the Yankees (assuming they would replace Ruth with someone of the White Sox-level of production) to calculate their wins as well. Based on this analysis, I determined that, had the trade been made, all other things being equal, the White Sox would have won the 1920 and 1923 AL pennants. The net wins/losses generated by the trade would have had the leagues look like this:

1920 Actual			1920 Ruth Effect 1
CLE	98	56	CHI	100	54
CHI	96	58	CLE	98	56
NYY	95	59	NYY	91	63
STL	77	77	STL	77	77
BOS	72	81	BOS	72	81
WAS	68	84	WAS	68	84
DET	61	93	DET	61	93
PHA	48	106	PHA	48	106

1926 Actual			1926 Ruth Effect 1
NYY	91	63	CHW	88	65
CLE	88	66	CLE	88	66
PHA	83	67	PHA	83	67
WAS	81	69	NYY	82	72
CHW	81	72	WAS	81	69
DET	79	75	DET	79	75
STL	62	92	STL	62	92
BOS	46	107	BOS	46	107

Now, mind you, the 1926 White Sox would have had to make up the game that was rained out that year to decide the AL pennant, but you can see the difference Ruth would have made.

But Ruth's effect on the Sox would likely have transcended his own production on the field. Ruth would have drawn hordes of people to Comiskey Park. This level of attendance would have warranted, nay, demanded that Comiskey try to obtain additional pitching and hitting help for the White Sox. As was seen by the sale of Ruth (and before that, the sale of the 1915 Philadelphia A's star players) players could be bought from other teams in that era with relative ease. There is no reason to believe that the Sox couldn't have picked up additional talent (perhaps by trading a young player like Bibb Falk, etc.). By the same token, the Yankees would not have had Ruth as a draw, thereby limiting their own ability to purchase additional players.

So I ran the analysis again assuming that the White Sox would have added players who would have (a) created 40 more runs per year; and (b) allowed 40 fewer runs per year. This is a relative reasonable upgrade in production - it's the equivalent of having Carlos Lee in the outfield instead of Timo Perez, or upgrading two positions half as much. On the pitching side, the analysis would probably be about the same. Again, after adding Ruth and the +40/-40 differential to the White Sox, I calculated the number of wins they would have using the pythagorean method. I did the same for the Yankees.

In the aggregate, the "Ruth plus" factor dramatically affects the fortunes of the White Sox and the rest of the American League in the 1920's. Instead of winning the AL Pennant in 1920 and 1926, the Sox also win it in 1923, meaning the Sox win the AL pennant in 3 of the 11 years. The Philadelphia A's, who won the Pennant in 1929 and 1930 anyway, win it through the course of 1928-30. The St. Louis Browns, of all teams, claim the 1922 pennant, and the Cleveland Indians pick up the 1921 flag. The Senators keep the AL pennants in 1924 and 1925. The Yankees' sole pennant comes in 1927, when they manage to squeak out a victory by 5 games over the Philadelphia A's.

Here are the actual and hypothetical Ruth-adjusted standings for the entire period of 1920-1930:

1920 Actual			1920 Ruth Effect 2
CLE	98	56	CHI	100	54
CHI	96	58	CLE	98	56
NYY	95	59	NYY	91	63
STL	77	77	STL	77	77
BOS	72	81	BOS	72	81
WAS	68	84	WAS	68	84
DET	61	93	DET	61	93
PHA	48	106	PHA	48	106

1921 Actual			1921 Ruth Effect 2
NYY	98	55	CLE	94	60
CLE	94	60	CHW	82	72
STL	81	73	NYY	81	72
WAS	80	73	STL	81	73
BOS	75	79	WAS	80	73
DET	71	82	BOS	75	79
CHW	62	92	DET	71	82
PHA	53	100	PHA	53	100

1922 Actual			1922 Ruth Effect 2
NYY	94	60	STL	93	61
STL	93	61	CHW	88	66
DET	79	75	NYY	83	71
CLE	78	76	DET	79	75
CHW	77	77	CLE	78	76
WAS	69	85	WAS	69	85
PHA	65	89	PHA	65	89
BOS	61	93	BOS	61	93

1923 Actual			1923 Ruth Effect 2
NYY	98	54	CHW	89	65
DET	83	71	DET	83	71
CLE	82	71	CLE	82	71
WAS	75	78	NYY	77	75
STL	74	78	WAS	75	78
PHA	69	83	STL	74	78
CHW	69	85	PHA	69	83
BOS	61	91	BOS	61	91

1924 Actual			1924 Ruth Effect 2
WAS	92	62	WAS	92	62
NYY	89	63	DET	86	68
DET	86	68	CHW	78	75
STL	74	78	NYY	76	76
PHA	71	81	STL	74	78
CLE	67	86	PHA	71	81
BOS	67	87	CLE	67	86
CHW	66	87	BOS	67	87

1925 Actual			1925 Ruth Effect 2
WAS	96	55	WAS	96	55
PHL	88	64	PHL	88	64
STL	82	71	CHW	83	71
DET	81	73	STL	82	71
CHW	79	75	DET	81	73
CLE	70	84	CLE	70	84
NYY	69	85	NYY	64	90
BOS	47	105	BOS	47	105

1926 Actual			1926 Ruth Effect 2
NYY	91	63	CHW	95	58
CLE	88	66	CLE	88	66
PHA	83	67	PHA	83	67
WAS	81	69	WAS	81	69
CHW	81	72	DET	79	75
DET	79	75	NYY	74	80
STL	62	92	STL	62	92
BOS	46	107	BOS	46	107

1927 Actual			1927 Ruth Effect 2
NYY	110	44	NYY	96	58
PHA	91	63	PHA	91	63
WAS	85	69	CHW	88	65
DET	82	71	WAS	85	69
CHW	70	83	DET	82	71
CLE	66	87	CLE	66	87
STL	59	94	STL	59	94
BOS	51	103	BOS	51	103

1928 Actual			1928 Ruth Effect 2
NYY	101	53	PHA	98	55
PHA	98	55	CHW	90	64
STL	82	72	NYY	83	71
WAS	75	79	STL	82	72
CHW	72	82	WAS	75	79
DET	68	86	DET	68	86
CLE	62	92	CLE	62	92
BOS	57	96	BOS	57	96

1929 Actual			1929 Ruth Effect 2
PHA	104	46	PHA	104	46
NYY	88	66	CLE	81	71
CLE	81	71	STL	79	73
STL	79	73	NYY	75	79
WAS	71	81	CHW	73	79
DET	70	84	WAS	71	81
CHW	59	93	DET	70	84
BOS	58	96	BOS	58	96

1930 Actual			1930 Ruth Effect 2
PHA	104	50	PHA	104	50
WAS	94	60	WAS	94	60
NYY	86	68	CHW	81	73
CLE	81	73	CLE	81	73
DET	75	79	DET	75	79
STL	64	90	NYY	70	84
CHW	62	92	STL	64	90
BOS	52	102	BOS	52	102

As you can see, my analysis (which I'm sure has about 1000 holes, like any counterfactual analysis) suggests that had the White Sox trade Joe Jackson for Babe Ruth, they would have had a terrific decade of the 1920's. They would have won back-to-back pennants in 1919 and 1920, then gone right back to the World Series in 1923 and 1926 - four pennants in eight seasons from 1919 to 1926. In the other years, they would have been competitive for the league title, finishing second in 1921 and 1922. They would have faded in the late 1920's, and perhaps Ruth would have been ripe for a trade by that time.

This whole thought experiment has been very interesting to me, and I hope you, dear readers, got a kick out of it, too. We are so pennant-starved as White Sox fans that it's nice even to think about adding hypothetical flags in the past. Who knows, the success of the 1920's, with Ruth as a drawing card, may have built up the Sox organization and they could have been, if not the Yankees, the St. Louis Cardinals. A team competitive throughout the years and with many legends and memories.

But we have what we have. Broken dreams and two pennants in 85 years.

// posted by SuperNoVa @ 5:22 PM (0) comments