Friday, April 30, 2004
Esteban's Perfect April (Again)
A nice victory for the White Sox last night, with yet another late-in-the-game comback. Esteban Loaiza continues his April fortune, now 4-0, with a decent but not great 3.71 ERA, due largely to his two-hit shutout of the D-Rays in Tampa.
Here's hoping Esteban keeps it rolling into May. I'll be at his next start, May 4th vs. the Orioles in Baltimore. I'll be trying my own feat at that game - eating for the cycle. That means Polish Sausage, Italian Sausage, Bratwurst and Hot Dog. No eating all day for me - got to get ready for game time.
Even nicer was the fact that Billy Koch actually closed the door in the ninth.
Watching the game Tuesday night where Koch loaded the bases and then got out of the inning, I did get the inkling that Koch was turning a corner. I don't know - it's something inchoate - but it looked like he just had an extra bit of animation that made the difference. Maybe he just has to remember that feeling to get in the groove again. Well, it's two decent outings in a row for him. Since the Sox really need a bullpen that performs well, it'll be important to get him going.
Comments-[ comments.]
A nice victory for the White Sox last night, with yet another late-in-the-game comback. Esteban Loaiza continues his April fortune, now 4-0, with a decent but not great 3.71 ERA, due largely to his two-hit shutout of the D-Rays in Tampa.
Here's hoping Esteban keeps it rolling into May. I'll be at his next start, May 4th vs. the Orioles in Baltimore. I'll be trying my own feat at that game - eating for the cycle. That means Polish Sausage, Italian Sausage, Bratwurst and Hot Dog. No eating all day for me - got to get ready for game time.
Even nicer was the fact that Billy Koch actually closed the door in the ninth.
Watching the game Tuesday night where Koch loaded the bases and then got out of the inning, I did get the inkling that Koch was turning a corner. I don't know - it's something inchoate - but it looked like he just had an extra bit of animation that made the difference. Maybe he just has to remember that feeling to get in the groove again. Well, it's two decent outings in a row for him. Since the Sox really need a bullpen that performs well, it'll be important to get him going.
Juan Uribe keeps rolling along
It's now nine multi-hit games for Juan Uribe this year. He had only 20 multi-hit games last year. The interesting thing about that, however, is that 8 of them came in the first month.
Juan is not going to stay this hot all year, folks. My fear is that he is fooling people into believing he can be a replacement for Jose Valentin next year. Uribe has had 1200 career at bats with a .265/.305/.417 line (with 1/2 his games at Coors Field), and there's not reason to believe (yet) that his performance isn't just an aberration.
Comments-[ comments.]
It's now nine multi-hit games for Juan Uribe this year. He had only 20 multi-hit games last year. The interesting thing about that, however, is that 8 of them came in the first month.
Juan is not going to stay this hot all year, folks. My fear is that he is fooling people into believing he can be a replacement for Jose Valentin next year. Uribe has had 1200 career at bats with a .265/.305/.417 line (with 1/2 his games at Coors Field), and there's not reason to believe (yet) that his performance isn't just an aberration.
Willie Continues To Struggle
Willie Harris is - and he's hot right now - continuing to get on base less than 30% of the time. This means that he's not useful hitting from the leadoff spot. You can't steal first base.
I like the idea of a speedster at the top of the lineup to put pressure on the defense and provide a steady diet of fastballs to Jose Valentin hitting second. But that only works when Willie is on base.
A couple of things stand out from Willie's splits this year. He's hitting a whopping .000 against lefties with a .091 OBP. In his career, he's hit about 30 points worse against lefties than righties - .186/.238/.186 vs. 219/.259/.307 (even against righties, those are horrid numbers).
I hope Ozzie will recognize this and sit Willie against lefties. He largely does already, which is good. So far this year, Willie is getting on base about 33% of the time against righties, which is on the low side of OK. To be a good leadoff hitter, you've got to be on base 35+% of the time.
At some point - here we are 400 ABs into his career - someone has to figure out that Willie can't hit. I can see giving him another 100 AB's, just to make sure his previous troubles weren't due to sporadic use, etc., but it's hard to justify giving him more than that when you've got a perfectly good leadoff hitter in the minors in Jeremy Reed (who, of course, hits 2nd at Charlotte).
Comments-[ comments.]
Willie Harris is - and he's hot right now - continuing to get on base less than 30% of the time. This means that he's not useful hitting from the leadoff spot. You can't steal first base.
I like the idea of a speedster at the top of the lineup to put pressure on the defense and provide a steady diet of fastballs to Jose Valentin hitting second. But that only works when Willie is on base.
A couple of things stand out from Willie's splits this year. He's hitting a whopping .000 against lefties with a .091 OBP. In his career, he's hit about 30 points worse against lefties than righties - .186/.238/.186 vs. 219/.259/.307 (even against righties, those are horrid numbers).
I hope Ozzie will recognize this and sit Willie against lefties. He largely does already, which is good. So far this year, Willie is getting on base about 33% of the time against righties, which is on the low side of OK. To be a good leadoff hitter, you've got to be on base 35+% of the time.
At some point - here we are 400 ABs into his career - someone has to figure out that Willie can't hit. I can see giving him another 100 AB's, just to make sure his previous troubles weren't due to sporadic use, etc., but it's hard to justify giving him more than that when you've got a perfectly good leadoff hitter in the minors in Jeremy Reed (who, of course, hits 2nd at Charlotte).
Wednesday, April 28, 2004
Good Lord, This Stuff Never Happens To Us
What a 9th inning rally! That's 2 improbable 9th inning comebacks in 3 games...games that were left for dead and resurrected.
Is there something different about this team? Why in the world isn't it rolling over and playing dead like in years past?
Could it be Ozzie? The law of large numbers? Either way, we'll take it!
Comments-[ comments.]
What a 9th inning rally! That's 2 improbable 9th inning comebacks in 3 games...games that were left for dead and resurrected.
Is there something different about this team? Why in the world isn't it rolling over and playing dead like in years past?
Could it be Ozzie? The law of large numbers? Either way, we'll take it!
Tuesday, April 27, 2004
Conversations At First Base
While watching the game tonight on MLB Extra Innings I noticed Miguel Olivo talking to Ben Broussard at first base after he got a cue shot hit to Right Field. He laughed and started talking to Broussard. Other than the last play, what do Olivo and Brousasard have to talk about?
Which brings me to a more general topic - first base conversations. I've played my share of first base in my time and have had no particular desire to talk to the people who reach base. They're the enemy, I don't really know them for the most part, and I've got other things to think about.
But Paul Konerko seems to love to talk at first base. He seems really pleased when someone reaches base, because he has someone to engage in conversation. It's almost as though he's willing the Sox pitchers to give up bingles.
What is he talking about all the time? The weather? Gardening supplies? The pantomime of Marcel Marceau? What I want is a microphone on Konerko for a 3-game set against a random team, like the Mariners, and have a transcript produced. My guess is that he'd say at least 10 bizarre or offputting things in a three game series...like, "Hey, Olerud, what do you think about Kurt Cobain's suicide? You think it was the CIA? I think it was the CIA."
Maybe this is something Comcast Sports Net Chicago will do. If I could pay $50 extra per year for the Konerko transcript service, I'd probably pay it.
Comments-[ comments.]
While watching the game tonight on MLB Extra Innings I noticed Miguel Olivo talking to Ben Broussard at first base after he got a cue shot hit to Right Field. He laughed and started talking to Broussard. Other than the last play, what do Olivo and Brousasard have to talk about?
Which brings me to a more general topic - first base conversations. I've played my share of first base in my time and have had no particular desire to talk to the people who reach base. They're the enemy, I don't really know them for the most part, and I've got other things to think about.
But Paul Konerko seems to love to talk at first base. He seems really pleased when someone reaches base, because he has someone to engage in conversation. It's almost as though he's willing the Sox pitchers to give up bingles.
What is he talking about all the time? The weather? Gardening supplies? The pantomime of Marcel Marceau? What I want is a microphone on Konerko for a 3-game set against a random team, like the Mariners, and have a transcript produced. My guess is that he'd say at least 10 bizarre or offputting things in a three game series...like, "Hey, Olerud, what do you think about Kurt Cobain's suicide? You think it was the CIA? I think it was the CIA."
Maybe this is something Comcast Sports Net Chicago will do. If I could pay $50 extra per year for the Konerko transcript service, I'd probably pay it.
Why It's Harder To Be A White Sox Fan Than Any Other Fan
The worst part about being a White Sox fan and be faced with many long years of frustration is that we get little credit for such frustration. It's as though the fan frustration factor can be boiled down to an equation:
Adjusted Fan Frustration = Years Since Last World Championship / Public Acknowledgement of Fan Frustration
By this measurement, it's almost good to be a fan of the Red Sox or Cubs - they have storied histories at this point. We don't even have that. We have unacknowledged pain, which weighs more heavily.
Here's another example of that. In today's Washington Post (pointed out by ever eagle-eyed Don Kosin) Thomas Boswell notes:
I guess the 1959 World Series didn't alleviate the drought for the "folks in Chicago." Boswell's an otherwise good sports writer, but he just doesn't get that it's worse to be a White Sox fan than a Cubs fan. And the reason it's worse is that he doesn't get it.
Comments-[ comments.]
The worst part about being a White Sox fan and be faced with many long years of frustration is that we get little credit for such frustration. It's as though the fan frustration factor can be boiled down to an equation:
Adjusted Fan Frustration = Years Since Last World Championship / Public Acknowledgement of Fan Frustration
By this measurement, it's almost good to be a fan of the Red Sox or Cubs - they have storied histories at this point. We don't even have that. We have unacknowledged pain, which weighs more heavily.
Here's another example of that. In today's Washington Post (pointed out by ever eagle-eyed Don Kosin) Thomas Boswell notes:
"If this Red Sox cast can't win it all, especially after the first-round standing eight-count they've just laid on the Yankees, then the 86-year wait to break the Curse of the Bambino may continue for eternity. As folks in Chicago can attest as they endure their 58-season Series drought, that just wouldn't be right. "
I guess the 1959 World Series didn't alleviate the drought for the "folks in Chicago." Boswell's an otherwise good sports writer, but he just doesn't get that it's worse to be a White Sox fan than a Cubs fan. And the reason it's worse is that he doesn't get it.
Monday, April 26, 2004
Blog Post I Didn't Write
I thought about moaning and lamenting the fact that Jeremy Reed has only 2 walks so far this year, a walk rate well behind his career rate in the minors. For crying out loud, it's only 15 games or so, and he's hitting .340!
Just like I said in the post on Schoeneweis, it's too early to really make any judgments. Despite my nearly pathological fear of the Twinkies at this time, they really have played over their heads. And the Royals aren't nearly as bad as their record. In fact, according to the adjusted standings, the Royals have been playing better baseball than the Twinks despite their horrid record. A big part of that, I'm sure is the fact that they've left 18 men stranded on 3rd with less than two outs thus far this year - a horrendous rate.
Pretty much everything about this season is too early to draw any lasting conclusions - except for injuries. I fear the only permanent things to this season might be Jose Valentin's hamstring, which has the potential to linger all season.
Comments-[ comments.]
I thought about moaning and lamenting the fact that Jeremy Reed has only 2 walks so far this year, a walk rate well behind his career rate in the minors. For crying out loud, it's only 15 games or so, and he's hitting .340!
Just like I said in the post on Schoeneweis, it's too early to really make any judgments. Despite my nearly pathological fear of the Twinkies at this time, they really have played over their heads. And the Royals aren't nearly as bad as their record. In fact, according to the adjusted standings, the Royals have been playing better baseball than the Twinks despite their horrid record. A big part of that, I'm sure is the fact that they've left 18 men stranded on 3rd with less than two outs thus far this year - a horrendous rate.
Pretty much everything about this season is too early to draw any lasting conclusions - except for injuries. I fear the only permanent things to this season might be Jose Valentin's hamstring, which has the potential to linger all season.
Schoeneweis Overexcitement Continues
Well, Peter Gammons has a blurb hyping Scott Schoeneweis:
I'm not surprised at Gammons falling for Schoeneweis early - he tends to parrot whatever GM he's talked to this week tells him. And from his column, it's clear that he's talked to Kenny Williams this week (page at baseball reference smartly sponsored by one Don Kosin, although I think that may be a faux gauchaux).
More surprisingly, Baseball Prospectus has joined the early excitement, claiming that:
Et tu, BP? Poor Schoeny is really jinxed now - he's got Gammons and the statheads behind him. I just think Schoeneweis hasn't proven anything yet. In fact, he's had very good stretches in the past, including a long one during the year 2001 - a year in which he still finished with a 5.08 ERA. I compiled a list of his stretches of 3 or more quality starts (3 runs or less, 6 or more IP):
So, you see, it's not altogether unheard of for Schoeneweis to put together decent stretches. And I'm not saying he CAN'T pitch better this year. I'm just saying its WAY too early to tell, and that Schoeneweis has been effective before, only to wind up really stinking the rest of the year.
Comments-[ comments.]
Well, Peter Gammons has a blurb hyping Scott Schoeneweis:
The White Sox are convinced Scott Schoeneweis' cutter is so good he can get by on power sinkers and cutters, this year's version of Esteban Loaiza.
I'm not surprised at Gammons falling for Schoeneweis early - he tends to parrot whatever GM he's talked to this week tells him. And from his column, it's clear that he's talked to Kenny Williams this week (page at baseball reference smartly sponsored by one Don Kosin, although I think that may be a faux gauchaux).
More surprisingly, Baseball Prospectus has joined the early excitement, claiming that:
Scott Free: On the other hand, the "experiment" of moving Scott Schoeneweis into the starting rotation has turned out well so far. Schoeneweis was in top form in 6.2 scoreless innings against the Rays and he two decent starts against the vaunted Yankees offense. There is some cause for concern at this point with a seven-to-nine strikeout to walk ratio, but Schoeneweis's K-rate has been increasing steadily for several seasons, a nice compliment to his low walk-rate. The Sox knew that replacing Bartolo Colon would be difficult, but Schoeneweis has done an admirable job thus far and he didn't cost the Sox the buckets of cash that Colon or a comparable free agent pitcher was demanding on the market. There's little reason at this point to think that he can't continue to fill the role adequately.
Et tu, BP? Poor Schoeny is really jinxed now - he's got Gammons and the statheads behind him. I just think Schoeneweis hasn't proven anything yet. In fact, he's had very good stretches in the past, including a long one during the year 2001 - a year in which he still finished with a 5.08 ERA. I compiled a list of his stretches of 3 or more quality starts (3 runs or less, 6 or more IP):
| Date | Opponent | IP | H | BFP | HR | R | ER | BB | IBB | K | W | L | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9- 1-2000 | AT CHI A | 6.1 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5.15 |
| 9- 6-2000 | AT DET A | 8 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4.89 |
| 9-11-2000 | VS BAL A | 6.1 | 6 | 28 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4.81 |
| Date | Opponent | IP | H | BFP | HR | R | ER | BB | IBB | K | W | L | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4- 3-2001 | AT TEX A | 7 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3.86 |
| 4- 8-2001 | AT OAK A | 6 | 3 | 25 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4.15 |
| 4-13-2001 | VS SEA A | 7.2 | 8 | 32 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3.92 |
| 4-18-2001 | VS OAK A | 7.2 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3.49 |
| 4-24-2001 | AT CLE A | 8 | 10 | 34 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3.22 |
| 4-29-2001 | AT TOR A | 7 | 5 | 31 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2.91 |
| Date | Opponent | IP | H | BFP | HR | R | ER | BB | IBB | K | W | L | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7-27-2001 | VS BAL A | 8 | 9 | 35 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4.94 |
| 8- 1-2001 | AT BOS A | 7.2 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4.80 |
| 8-10-2001 | VS TOR A | 7.2 | 8 | 33 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 4.74 |
| 8-16-2001 | AT DET A | 8 | 5 | 31 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4.61 |
| Date | Opponent | IP | H | BFP | HR | R | ER | BB | IBB | K | W | L | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-28-2002 | VS TOR A | 7 | 7 | 29 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6.53 |
| 5- 4-2002 | AT TOR A | 7 | 9 | 34 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6.03 |
| 5-10-2002 | VS CHI A | 7 | 3 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5.08 |
So, you see, it's not altogether unheard of for Schoeneweis to put together decent stretches. And I'm not saying he CAN'T pitch better this year. I'm just saying its WAY too early to tell, and that Schoeneweis has been effective before, only to wind up really stinking the rest of the year.
Sunday, April 25, 2004
Oh the Horror - the Twins schedule
As noted below, the Twins had the fortune of playing their first 18 games against AL Central teams. Well, that's over now, and the Twins will be playing, consecutively, Toronto (home), Anaheim (home), Seattle (road), Oakland (road), Seattle (home). Lucky for them, they miss last year's Cy Young award winner. Although Toronto's bats have been quiet this season, they really picked up against Baltimore today. But they send Lilly, De Los Santos and Bautista to the mound - not exactly tough sledding. The six against Seattle would otherwise be troubling, but Seattle's offense has collapsed this year to the tune of a .392 slugging percentage. Seattle doesn't even have as many walks as the White Sox!
The games against Anaheim and Oakland should be a good test for the Twinkies, however. If they go 4-2 against those teams, I guess we'll just have to accept that the Twinks are, indeed, for real again this year.
Meanwhile, the Pale Hose get Cleveland (home), Toronto (home), Baltimore (road), Toronto (road) and Baltimore (home) during the same stretch. The Orioles are much improved this year ...they spent money improving themselve up the middle ... and will be a pretty good test. The Sox, of course, get Halladay in game 2 of that series (matched up against Wright unless they skip him and let Buerhle pitch). He's got a 2.35 ERA against the Sox over the last three years. So the Sox have no easy task during this stretch. The softest part of the Sox's schedule (at least I hope it turns out to be soft) is the 22 consecutive games against AL Central teams starting July 21. Only 3 of those games are against the Twins. Interestingly, the Sox play all 19 of their games against the newly-resurgent Tigers after the All-Star Break. If the Tigers are going to break down into the 72 win team we all know they are, they will have done it by then.
It all gets interesting, of course, when the Sox and Twins collide May 20th in the Twinkiedome.
Comments-[ comments.]
As noted below, the Twins had the fortune of playing their first 18 games against AL Central teams. Well, that's over now, and the Twins will be playing, consecutively, Toronto (home), Anaheim (home), Seattle (road), Oakland (road), Seattle (home). Lucky for them, they miss last year's Cy Young award winner. Although Toronto's bats have been quiet this season, they really picked up against Baltimore today. But they send Lilly, De Los Santos and Bautista to the mound - not exactly tough sledding. The six against Seattle would otherwise be troubling, but Seattle's offense has collapsed this year to the tune of a .392 slugging percentage. Seattle doesn't even have as many walks as the White Sox!
The games against Anaheim and Oakland should be a good test for the Twinkies, however. If they go 4-2 against those teams, I guess we'll just have to accept that the Twinks are, indeed, for real again this year.
Meanwhile, the Pale Hose get Cleveland (home), Toronto (home), Baltimore (road), Toronto (road) and Baltimore (home) during the same stretch. The Orioles are much improved this year ...they spent money improving themselve up the middle ... and will be a pretty good test. The Sox, of course, get Halladay in game 2 of that series (matched up against Wright unless they skip him and let Buerhle pitch). He's got a 2.35 ERA against the Sox over the last three years. So the Sox have no easy task during this stretch. The softest part of the Sox's schedule (at least I hope it turns out to be soft) is the 22 consecutive games against AL Central teams starting July 21. Only 3 of those games are against the Twins. Interestingly, the Sox play all 19 of their games against the newly-resurgent Tigers after the All-Star Break. If the Tigers are going to break down into the 72 win team we all know they are, they will have done it by then.
It all gets interesting, of course, when the Sox and Twins collide May 20th in the Twinkiedome.
White Sox production up 9%, sez Gribben
Doug Gribben wrote in an e-mail to the Sox list (stats through 4/24 I believe):
Runs up with bunts up 18%....something must be wrong. What I like best is OBP up 11 points. I think this is mostly due to the walk rate - the Sox walked about 3.2 times per game last year, and are at 3.5 times per game this year. Carlos, Crede, Olivo, and Konerko are all walking at a much higher rate than last year. Miguel's got 4 walks thus far through 18 games, which compares highly favorably to the 19 walks he had all last year.
The nice thing about game 18 is that it represents 1/9 of the total schedule. With 9 hitters in the lineup, the Sox's stats right now are equivalent to one full season for a spot in the lineup. Such a spot would be .267/.342/.452 with 25 homers and 63 walks. That's a pretty good season, and the Sox's run total should be way up if that stays the case.
What's nice about the start is that you can't really say that it's aberrational. Right now, only Olivo and Uribe are hitting way over their heads. But they only account for 84 of the Sox's 611 total at bats. You could make an argument that Ordonez, Thomas, Lee and Crede will improve from their current production. So it's entirely possible that this White Sox team could score 900 runs, especially getting to feast on the Tigers, Royals, Indians and Twins' sorry staffs for 76 games.
The Twins, by the way, have some serious aberrations going with Blanco hitting like Johnny Bench, Jacque Jones hitting like Magglio, and Jose Offerman hitting like Derek Jeter circa 1998. In fact, only really Luis Rivas is hitting below his career standards. Really, 1 through 8, the Twins are hitting a ton right now. This again, all goes back to the fact thay they have played so many games against the Royals' and Indians' pathetic staffs.
Comments-[ comments.]
Doug Gribben wrote in an e-mail to the Sox list (stats through 4/24 I believe):
Offense is "on pace" to score 861 runs, 9% ahead of last year. BAVG is up
0.008, OBP up 0.011, SLG up 0.013. Team is scoring almost exactly as many
runs (85) and my statistical model projects they should have (86.1)...
Triples up 60%, steals up 45%, bunts up 18%, sac flies up 23%. The White
Sox are on pace slightly better in every offensive category
Defense and pitching: Runs down 4%, hits down 7%, homers up 38%, walks up
17%, strikeouts down 25%, double plays up 50%. The White Sox have allowed 3
more runs than the statistical model of the opposing batters would expect.
It's the DPs that are saving them.
Sox ERA vs Tampa so far is 1.25, Yanks 3.77, Royals 5.16. Against Tampa
they've hit .218 but won 3 of 4; against Yanks .262, against Royals .322...
Doug
Runs up with bunts up 18%....something must be wrong. What I like best is OBP up 11 points. I think this is mostly due to the walk rate - the Sox walked about 3.2 times per game last year, and are at 3.5 times per game this year. Carlos, Crede, Olivo, and Konerko are all walking at a much higher rate than last year. Miguel's got 4 walks thus far through 18 games, which compares highly favorably to the 19 walks he had all last year.
The nice thing about game 18 is that it represents 1/9 of the total schedule. With 9 hitters in the lineup, the Sox's stats right now are equivalent to one full season for a spot in the lineup. Such a spot would be .267/.342/.452 with 25 homers and 63 walks. That's a pretty good season, and the Sox's run total should be way up if that stays the case.
What's nice about the start is that you can't really say that it's aberrational. Right now, only Olivo and Uribe are hitting way over their heads. But they only account for 84 of the Sox's 611 total at bats. You could make an argument that Ordonez, Thomas, Lee and Crede will improve from their current production. So it's entirely possible that this White Sox team could score 900 runs, especially getting to feast on the Tigers, Royals, Indians and Twins' sorry staffs for 76 games.
The Twins, by the way, have some serious aberrations going with Blanco hitting like Johnny Bench, Jacque Jones hitting like Magglio, and Jose Offerman hitting like Derek Jeter circa 1998. In fact, only really Luis Rivas is hitting below his career standards. Really, 1 through 8, the Twins are hitting a ton right now. This again, all goes back to the fact thay they have played so many games against the Royals' and Indians' pathetic staffs.
Sox walk to victory
There's no way the White Sox should have won today's game. They were pretty much outplayed all game, with Tampa Bay showing some excellent defense. The White Sox also showed little with the bats all game, except for Willie Harris' baltimore chops - the second of which he turned into an out by getting thrown out stretching.
There were some weird moves by Guillen in the 9th inning. Thomas leads with a single, Carlos walks him to second. Now, Frank's run means nothing (he's the 4th run), so I can understand him not being pinch run for. Carlos gets picked off on the old block-the-base play (which is frustrating if you're the runner, believe me, I know, but a legit play) and Paulie singles Frank to third. Ok, now you've got Joe Crede up with one out and runners on the corners. Since Paulie is the tying run, it make a lot of sense running for him. But Ross Gload? Simply because he'll go out to first base? That doesn't make sense, with relatively speedy Timo Perez on the bench. So the Sox lose Gload's bat off the bench. Crede chokes a bit, but Tampa Bay's SS bails him out by throwing to first, not second, meaning that Frank scores and Gload goes to second.
Then Guillen brings in Timo to pinch hit for Rowand. If I'm Lou Piniella, I'm happy with this matchup, because Timo is a terrible hitter, and has been hitting terribly thus far this year. Sweet Lou bails Guillen out halfway, because he brings in a lefty to face Timo. Guillen counters by sending heavy-hitting Kelly Dransfeldt to the plate. Now, that's not a bad matchup for Piniella, either.
But the Sox were dealt with a bit of divine revenge for Mendy Lopez's gratuitous three run homer on Opening Day, as Dransfeldt gets a hit to right. The play at the plate is excruciatingly close- Gload gets under the tag, and the call could have gone the other way. If it had, the decision to run Gload instead of Perez would have loomed large. Thankfully, it didn't cost Guillen this time. But he put the Sox in a couple of different positions that gave Tampa Bay an advantage (running Gload, pinch hitting Timo for Rowand) where he got bailed out. He won't always get bailed out.
By the way, what a way to win - Miguel Olivo, Willie Harris and Juan Uribe all walk consecutively. Mark that down - it won't happen again this year.
Carlos Lee now has 9 walks - he's still getting on base despite his slump. Good for you, Carlos! (his pace is now for 81 walks this year).
I thought Joe Crede would come out of his slump with his 2-hit, homer performance against Mussina on Thursday. No such luck. Here's hoping you come out of it, Joe, whatever it takes.
Comments-[ comments.]
There's no way the White Sox should have won today's game. They were pretty much outplayed all game, with Tampa Bay showing some excellent defense. The White Sox also showed little with the bats all game, except for Willie Harris' baltimore chops - the second of which he turned into an out by getting thrown out stretching.
There were some weird moves by Guillen in the 9th inning. Thomas leads with a single, Carlos walks him to second. Now, Frank's run means nothing (he's the 4th run), so I can understand him not being pinch run for. Carlos gets picked off on the old block-the-base play (which is frustrating if you're the runner, believe me, I know, but a legit play) and Paulie singles Frank to third. Ok, now you've got Joe Crede up with one out and runners on the corners. Since Paulie is the tying run, it make a lot of sense running for him. But Ross Gload? Simply because he'll go out to first base? That doesn't make sense, with relatively speedy Timo Perez on the bench. So the Sox lose Gload's bat off the bench. Crede chokes a bit, but Tampa Bay's SS bails him out by throwing to first, not second, meaning that Frank scores and Gload goes to second.
Then Guillen brings in Timo to pinch hit for Rowand. If I'm Lou Piniella, I'm happy with this matchup, because Timo is a terrible hitter, and has been hitting terribly thus far this year. Sweet Lou bails Guillen out halfway, because he brings in a lefty to face Timo. Guillen counters by sending heavy-hitting Kelly Dransfeldt to the plate. Now, that's not a bad matchup for Piniella, either.
But the Sox were dealt with a bit of divine revenge for Mendy Lopez's gratuitous three run homer on Opening Day, as Dransfeldt gets a hit to right. The play at the plate is excruciatingly close- Gload gets under the tag, and the call could have gone the other way. If it had, the decision to run Gload instead of Perez would have loomed large. Thankfully, it didn't cost Guillen this time. But he put the Sox in a couple of different positions that gave Tampa Bay an advantage (running Gload, pinch hitting Timo for Rowand) where he got bailed out. He won't always get bailed out.
By the way, what a way to win - Miguel Olivo, Willie Harris and Juan Uribe all walk consecutively. Mark that down - it won't happen again this year.
Carlos Lee now has 9 walks - he's still getting on base despite his slump. Good for you, Carlos! (his pace is now for 81 walks this year).
I thought Joe Crede would come out of his slump with his 2-hit, homer performance against Mussina on Thursday. No such luck. Here's hoping you come out of it, Joe, whatever it takes.
The White Sox's bad contracts
I did a quick analysis of the White Sox's contracts based on their value as measured by Wins above replacement value (taken from Baseball Prospectus). Not surprisingly, the Sox's worst contract is the one with Billy Koch. According to the weighted mean projection by Baseball Prospectus, the White Sox will be paying somewhere around $8 million per win added by Billy Koch (BP charitably estimates that Billy Koch will actually be a net positive this year). Konerko has, not surprisingly, the second worst contract:
Note - I cheated here by using $350,000 for all the players for whom the White Sox own the right to set their contracts - i.e., 1st, 2nd, 3rd year players. They vary from this figure, but the point is going to be pretty much the same, given that To be sure, using thousands of salary dollars per VORP/Wins is an imperfect measure of a player's contract value. There's no point at looking at all the $350k contracts- they are clearly a benefit to the team. But this does tend to confirm what we all knew - that Konerko and Koch are grossly overpaid. A little surprising is that Ordonez and Lee are roughly equally bad contracts. I tend to think that Carlos' contract - $6.5 million this year - is a worse contract that Magglio's contract. But thinking on it, it's probably correct that they are perhaps overpaid equally as much - maybe by $2-$3 million per year. Carlos's contract is going to look even worse next year when he gets bumped up to $8 million. But if Magglio gets $14 million again next year, his contract will be better than Carlos's.
Besides Koch's awful contract, all of the contracts for the Sox's pitchers seem to be pretty good - of course highlighted by Loaiza's contract. This is interesting - the White Sox are much better at valuing pitchers than position players right now.
By the way, Barry Bonds's contract ($18 million/year) makes each win he adds about $1.67 million. That's cheaper than any of the White Sox position players whose contracts the White Sox do not control.
Comments-[ comments.]
I did a quick analysis of the White Sox's contracts based on their value as measured by Wins above replacement value (taken from Baseball Prospectus). Not surprisingly, the Sox's worst contract is the one with Billy Koch. According to the weighted mean projection by Baseball Prospectus, the White Sox will be paying somewhere around $8 million per win added by Billy Koch (BP charitably estimates that Billy Koch will actually be a net positive this year). Konerko has, not surprisingly, the second worst contract:
| Batter | 2003 VORP | 2003 Wins | 2004 PVORP | 2004 PWins | Salary | 2004 $1000/W | 2003 $1000/W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Harris | 9.2 | -0.9 | 5.2 | 0.5 | 350 | 700.0 | (388.9) |
| Jose Valentin | 20.3 | 2 | 23 | 2.2 | 5000 | 2,272.7 | 2,500.0 |
| Magglio Ordonez | 9.3 | 4.6 | 40.8 | 3.8 | 14000 | 3,684.2 | 3,043.5 |
| Frank Thomas | 56 | 5.2 | 29.3 | 2.8 | 6000 | 2,142.9 | 1,153.8 |
| Carlos Lee | 22.1 | 2.1 | 19 | 1.8 | 6500 | 3,611.1 | 3,095.2 |
| Paul Konerko | -7.6 | -0.7 | 15.7 | 1.5 | 8000 | 5,333.3 | (11,428.6) |
| Joe Crede | 12.7 | 1.2 | 26.5 | 2.6 | 350 | 134.6 | 291.7 |
| Aaron Rowand | 5.1 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 0.4 | 350 | 875.0 | 700.0 |
| Miguel Olivo | -6.3 | -0.6 | 9.9 | 1 | 350 | 350.0 | (583.3) |
| Sandy Alomar | 0.6 | 0.1 | -4.3 | -0.4 | 750 | (1,875.0) | 7,500.0 |
| Ross Gload | 0 | 0 | 7.6 | 0.7 | 350 | 500.0 | N/A |
| Timo Perez | 0 | 0 | 4.2 | 0.4 | 850 | 2,125.0 | N/A |
| Juan Uribe | -2.2 | -0.02 | 13.9 | 1.4 | 350 | 250.0 | (17,500.0) |
| Mark Buerhle | 29.8 | 2.9 | 28.6 | 2.8 | 3500 | 1,250.0 | 1,206.9 |
| Esteban Loaiza | 75.3 | 7.5 | 40.4 | 4 | 4000 | 1,000.0 | 533.3 |
| Jon Garland | 25 | 2.4 | 15.9 | 1.6 | 2300 | 1,437.5 | 958.3 |
| Scott Schoeneweis | 8.6 | 0.8 | 10.1 | 1 | 1725 | 1,725.0 | 2,156.3 |
| Danny Wright | -5.1 | -0.5 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 350 | 875.0 | (700.0) |
| Shingo Takatsu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1000 | N/A | N/A |
| Neil Cotts | -3 | -0.3 | 3.7 | 0.4 | 350 | 875.0 | (1,166.7) |
| Jon Adkins | 1.2 | 0.1 | 3.1 | 0.3 | 350 | 1,166.7 | 3,500.0 |
| Mike Jackson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 500 | N/A | N/A |
| Damaso Marte | 35.7 | 3.8 | 22.9 | 2.4 | 500 | 208.3 | 131.6 |
| Billy Koch | -0.5 | 0 | 7.5 | 0.8 | 6375 | 7,968.8 | |
| Cliff Politte | 1.5 | 0.2 | 11.9 | 1.2 | 800 | 666.7 | 4,000.0 |
Note - I cheated here by using $350,000 for all the players for whom the White Sox own the right to set their contracts - i.e., 1st, 2nd, 3rd year players. They vary from this figure, but the point is going to be pretty much the same, given that To be sure, using thousands of salary dollars per VORP/Wins is an imperfect measure of a player's contract value. There's no point at looking at all the $350k contracts- they are clearly a benefit to the team. But this does tend to confirm what we all knew - that Konerko and Koch are grossly overpaid. A little surprising is that Ordonez and Lee are roughly equally bad contracts. I tend to think that Carlos' contract - $6.5 million this year - is a worse contract that Magglio's contract. But thinking on it, it's probably correct that they are perhaps overpaid equally as much - maybe by $2-$3 million per year. Carlos's contract is going to look even worse next year when he gets bumped up to $8 million. But if Magglio gets $14 million again next year, his contract will be better than Carlos's.
Besides Koch's awful contract, all of the contracts for the Sox's pitchers seem to be pretty good - of course highlighted by Loaiza's contract. This is interesting - the White Sox are much better at valuing pitchers than position players right now.
By the way, Barry Bonds's contract ($18 million/year) makes each win he adds about $1.67 million. That's cheaper than any of the White Sox position players whose contracts the White Sox do not control.
Friday, April 23, 2004
Today's White Sox Interactive Overreactions
Hmmmm... let's see
(1) Schoe's Foes are "officially dead." Vegas isn't even taking odds on when they will go Lazarus on us. Schoeneweis has got to give me a little bit more than 3 decent starts to make me a believer. After all, Schoenweis has a career ERA about the same as James Baldwin.
(2) People love Uribe at short. Hey, I'm all for his .900+ OPS, but for crying out loud, this guy has hit .258 in his career even though he played half his games at Coors Field.
Comments-[ comments.]
Hmmmm... let's see
(1) Schoe's Foes are "officially dead." Vegas isn't even taking odds on when they will go Lazarus on us. Schoeneweis has got to give me a little bit more than 3 decent starts to make me a believer. After all, Schoenweis has a career ERA about the same as James Baldwin.
(2) People love Uribe at short. Hey, I'm all for his .900+ OPS, but for crying out loud, this guy has hit .258 in his career even though he played half his games at Coors Field.
The New Outfield Wall of Fame
Aaron Stigberg was kind enough to post shots of the new outfield wall at the Cell, which includes pictures of the Sox players whose numbers are retired.Webshots Community - Sox Yanks, 22 April 2004
I have mixed feelings about this. It's nice, but it's been done before by Toronto and it's being done this year by Atlanta, too. Smacks me of being trendy. I wonder how the photos will wear in the sun and during the course of the season. Probably well, they are doing wonders with exterior paints these days.
Comments-[ comments.]
Aaron Stigberg was kind enough to post shots of the new outfield wall at the Cell, which includes pictures of the Sox players whose numbers are retired.Webshots Community - Sox Yanks, 22 April 2004
I have mixed feelings about this. It's nice, but it's been done before by Toronto and it's being done this year by Atlanta, too. Smacks me of being trendy. I wonder how the photos will wear in the sun and during the course of the season. Probably well, they are doing wonders with exterior paints these days.
The Danny Wright Threat Matrix
I have to admit, I liked Danny Wright for a long time. The August 11, 2001 game against Seattle really sucked me in - I thought he was going to be a #1 or #2 starter with the stuff he showed early in his White Sox career.
Since then, it's been all downhill. Here's the matrix of how Danny's starts have gone, well, wrong.
That's ugly. Of 65 career starts, he's got 24 quality starts. By comparison, he's given up 5 or more runs 22 times and gone fewer than 5 innings 23 times. He's gone 7 innings or more only 11 times, meaning that Danny Wright chews up the bullpen.
65 career starts is a lot - it only took the White Sox 67 career starts before they decided to give up on Kip Wells. (Someday I will write why Kip wouldn't have done nearly as well had he stayed in Chicago - I think he just needed a change in scenery). I hope the White Sox give up on Danny Wright as a starter soon and put him in the bullpen where he belongs.
Comments-[ comments.]
I have to admit, I liked Danny Wright for a long time. The August 11, 2001 game against Seattle really sucked me in - I thought he was going to be a #1 or #2 starter with the stuff he showed early in his White Sox career.
Since then, it's been all downhill. Here's the matrix of how Danny's starts have gone, well, wrong.
| Runs | >1 IP | >2 IP | >3 IP | >4 IP | >5 IP | >6 IP | >7 IP | >8 IP | >9 IP | 9 IP | totals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 runs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 1 run | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 runs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 3 runs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 runs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 5 runs | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 6 runs | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 runs | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 runs | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Totals | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 65 |
That's ugly. Of 65 career starts, he's got 24 quality starts. By comparison, he's given up 5 or more runs 22 times and gone fewer than 5 innings 23 times. He's gone 7 innings or more only 11 times, meaning that Danny Wright chews up the bullpen.
65 career starts is a lot - it only took the White Sox 67 career starts before they decided to give up on Kip Wells. (Someday I will write why Kip wouldn't have done nearly as well had he stayed in Chicago - I think he just needed a change in scenery). I hope the White Sox give up on Danny Wright as a starter soon and put him in the bullpen where he belongs.
ChicagoSports.com - Gload a hit as DH with Thomas out
Damn. More Ross Gload content.
I don't know why Ross said this:
I hope it's just a motivational tool for himself. Kelly Dransfeldt is the 25th man right now, and he'll get sent back down when Jose Valentin returns.
But more concerning to me is the fact that the White Sox have Timo Perez. I guess he is supposed to fill the Marvin Benard role of lefty hitting centerfielder. The problem is, a lefty hitting centerfielder is only valuable if, well, they hit lefty and play centerfield. We know that Timo can't hit with his career .276/.312/.397 line (Wait! he's a career .276 hitter! - but so was Mike Caruso). But Timo's also not, strictly speaking, a centerfielder - he played most of his games in right and left field for the Mets. (That's scary for the Mets. They must have really sucked to trot Timo out into LF/RF 200 times over the last 4 years).
But why do we even have to have a lefty-hitting centerfielder with MLB experience who sucks like Timo Perez with Jeremy Reed in the minors?
Comments-[ comments.]
Damn. More Ross Gload content.
I don't know why Ross said this:
"You can make the argument that I'm the 25th man right now," Gload said. "I need to keep doing what I've been doing—not necessarily replace people but fill in."
I hope it's just a motivational tool for himself. Kelly Dransfeldt is the 25th man right now, and he'll get sent back down when Jose Valentin returns.
But more concerning to me is the fact that the White Sox have Timo Perez. I guess he is supposed to fill the Marvin Benard role of lefty hitting centerfielder. The problem is, a lefty hitting centerfielder is only valuable if, well, they hit lefty and play centerfield. We know that Timo can't hit with his career .276/.312/.397 line (Wait! he's a career .276 hitter! - but so was Mike Caruso). But Timo's also not, strictly speaking, a centerfielder - he played most of his games in right and left field for the Mets. (That's scary for the Mets. They must have really sucked to trot Timo out into LF/RF 200 times over the last 4 years).
But why do we even have to have a lefty-hitting centerfielder with MLB experience who sucks like Timo Perez with Jeremy Reed in the minors?
Thursday, April 22, 2004
Whew, that was a close one.
Tonight's game against the Yankees was not a great game to watch on TiVo at 2 and 3 times speed. Schoeneweis seems to love having runners on base - he seems to like them on second most of all - and I just kept waiting for the other shoe to drop on him. Thankfully, the shoe did not drop on Schoe, and Politte did a nice job in relief. Marte was heart attack city, but Willie Harris (who's a horrible, horrible offensive player) turned a terrific double play to win it.
For some reason, maybe it's just this kind of stuff, but I also like Ross Gload. He took a nice curve ball from Mussina into the left-center field gap with two outs to put the Sox up 3-0. That really wound up being the offensive play of the game.
Amazing stat on Sports Center tonight - in a feature on Barry Bonds, Tim Kurkjian noted that Frank Thomas has only swung and missed 3 out of 90 swings this year. That's a phenomenal statistic. It tells me that Frank's low average is due to quite a bit of bad luck. If he's on most pitches and not swinging through fastballs, I have a hunch that he's going to have a pretty good year. I'd love a repeat of his year 2000, but even a .300/.420/.580 year would be fantastic. Frank used to do that as a matter of course....it's pretty much his career average.
Comments-[ comments.]
Tonight's game against the Yankees was not a great game to watch on TiVo at 2 and 3 times speed. Schoeneweis seems to love having runners on base - he seems to like them on second most of all - and I just kept waiting for the other shoe to drop on him. Thankfully, the shoe did not drop on Schoe, and Politte did a nice job in relief. Marte was heart attack city, but Willie Harris (who's a horrible, horrible offensive player) turned a terrific double play to win it.
For some reason, maybe it's just this kind of stuff, but I also like Ross Gload. He took a nice curve ball from Mussina into the left-center field gap with two outs to put the Sox up 3-0. That really wound up being the offensive play of the game.
Amazing stat on Sports Center tonight - in a feature on Barry Bonds, Tim Kurkjian noted that Frank Thomas has only swung and missed 3 out of 90 swings this year. That's a phenomenal statistic. It tells me that Frank's low average is due to quite a bit of bad luck. If he's on most pitches and not swinging through fastballs, I have a hunch that he's going to have a pretty good year. I'd love a repeat of his year 2000, but even a .300/.420/.580 year would be fantastic. Frank used to do that as a matter of course....it's pretty much his career average.
Dusty Baker gets "farked"
Some of these photoshops are too funny. Thanks to Kevin Gersten ("Soapy") of the White Sox ListServ for the link.
Comments-[ comments.]
Some of these photoshops are too funny. Thanks to Kevin Gersten ("Soapy") of the White Sox ListServ for the link.
Carlos Lee's walk rate
Let's take Carlos' temperature, shall we?
So Carlos's walk rate through about 1/10th of the season is up substantially - even though not to the 2002 levels. Carlos is much more valuable when he's on base, so let's hope that he keeps this up. Since we don't have more than the 2002 season to go on, it's hard to tell how more selectivity at the plate helps Carlos. His average and home run were about the same in 2001 and 2002 despite more than doubling his walk rate (although C Lee's home run rate was higher in 2002). And his walk rate dropped by more than half in 2003 but his average and home runs went up (but his home run rate stayed about the same). It'd be nice if Carlos put together a .290 batting average with 70 walks this year. He'd have a .370-.380 OBP and probably a .500 SLG...making him one of the best leftfielders in the AL.
In any case, there's no question I'd rather have a Carlos Lee that gets on base at at .360 clip a la 2002 rather than the Carlos Lee of 2003, despite the 5 more homers and bunch more RBI.
Comments-[ comments.]
Let's take Carlos' temperature, shall we?
| Year | Games | AB | HR | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | BB/G | BB/162 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 127 | 492 | 16 | 13 | .293 | .312 | .463 | .775 | .10 | 16.58 |
| 2000 | 152 | 572 | 24 | 38 | .301 | .345 | .484 | .829 | .25 | 40.50 |
| 2001 | 150 | 558 | 24 | 38 | .269 | .321 | .468 | .789 | .25 | 41.04 |
| 2002 | 140 | 492 | 26 | 75 | .264 | .359 | .484 | .843 | .54 | 86.79 |
| 2003 | 158 | 623 | 31 | 37 | .291 | .331 | .499 | .830 | .23 | 37.94 |
| 2004 | 14 | 53 | 3 | 6 | .264 | .333 | .509 | .842 | .43 | 69.43 |
So Carlos's walk rate through about 1/10th of the season is up substantially - even though not to the 2002 levels. Carlos is much more valuable when he's on base, so let's hope that he keeps this up. Since we don't have more than the 2002 season to go on, it's hard to tell how more selectivity at the plate helps Carlos. His average and home run were about the same in 2001 and 2002 despite more than doubling his walk rate (although C Lee's home run rate was higher in 2002). And his walk rate dropped by more than half in 2003 but his average and home runs went up (but his home run rate stayed about the same). It'd be nice if Carlos put together a .290 batting average with 70 walks this year. He'd have a .370-.380 OBP and probably a .500 SLG...making him one of the best leftfielders in the AL.
In any case, there's no question I'd rather have a Carlos Lee that gets on base at at .360 clip a la 2002 rather than the Carlos Lee of 2003, despite the 5 more homers and bunch more RBI.
Shortening the Baseball Season
Here's an e-mail I wrote to my friends Jule and Brad about shortening the Major League season from 162 to 140 games. I've done some thinking about baseball over the years, and this is one of the better ideas I've had. Depending on what you think of it, that might not be saying much.....
The season now stands at 162 games, at which it has held since 1961. The season stretches from the first week of April to the last week of September, or 6 months long, or 27 games per month.
What if you made that a 5 3/4 month season (ending the second to last week of September) with 24 games per month ... a 140 game schedule? 13.6% shorter than the current schedule. 70 road games, 70 home games.
I would propose to take out three weekday games per month on average, but five per month in April and September (school months) and only one per month in June and July. These games are the least attended games of the year anyway. [Edit - and it's really cold in the northern cities, anyway].
You say, what about the attendance? I say that making Baseball more scarce will hardly affect attendance. All of the games become more precious as the quantity is reduced. Your ratio of opening day and pennant race games to April clunkers is increased dramatically. Since baseball attendance is only about 70% of capacity anyway, increasing attendance to 75% of capacity will have a wash effect with the reduced number of games. This could be accomplished easily because those folks who buy eight game plans now will be forced into fewer games, and the casual fan who goes to 1 or 2 games per year will still be going to those games. Your only loss is the season ticket holders who buy seats to each game...but they also get substantial (10% or more) discounts on tickets. Raise ticket prices by 5% to make their discounts only 5% and you might just be at a wash, attendance and price-wise.
Also, if you reduce the number of games, you INCREASE the chances that each particular team will be involved in a pennant race. The delta between the best teams and the worst teams decreases with the absolute number of games (even if it stays the same percentage wise). If more teams are in the pennant chace, then their attendance will rise.
A reduction in the number of games by 22 games also does a great thing....it reduces the need for a 5th starter. Your top four starters could make 35 starts each in a 4 man rotation in a 140 game schedule. With the extra off days, this doesn't even mean they'll be getting less rest. It also spaces the off days more in April, where pitchers need the most time to recover. Bringing back the four man rotation, of course, reduces the need to spend gobs of money on starting pitching...thus have a reduction on payrolls.
You ask, what about TV money? Most of the TV money is made from the post season. ESPN is not going to pay less for Sunday night and Wednesday night games because they still we be able to televise Sunday night and Wednesday night games.
What about local TV money? My guess is that local stations pay for the rights to televise a good package of games, not necessarily a large package. The value of a 70 game package is pretty much the same as an 80 game package for a regional sports network/local broadcast affiliate. Plus, with fewer games, there might be greater demand for the games they show, meaning better ratings. More of the games will be on weekends, which means fewer conflicts with prime-time programming.
Because more games will be on weekends, a higher percentage of the games will be day games. Baseball is meant to be played in the sunshine, damnit. [Edit - no, I'm not some latent Cubs fan. I just like daytime baseball. It goes better with bratwurst.]
Stats? Sure, Barry Bonds' 73 home runs will be safe, and no one will touch Wilson's 191 RBI record. But the chances of another .400 hitter go up. (Fewer 100 rbi men means fewer big contracts, too.) Hitting 50 home runs will mean something again, especially facing 1-4 starters, not 5th starters 20% of the time. Pitching stats in a four-man rotation won't be appreciably different. 35 starts is 35 starts either way.
Comments-[ comments.]
Here's an e-mail I wrote to my friends Jule and Brad about shortening the Major League season from 162 to 140 games. I've done some thinking about baseball over the years, and this is one of the better ideas I've had. Depending on what you think of it, that might not be saying much.....
The season now stands at 162 games, at which it has held since 1961. The season stretches from the first week of April to the last week of September, or 6 months long, or 27 games per month.
What if you made that a 5 3/4 month season (ending the second to last week of September) with 24 games per month ... a 140 game schedule? 13.6% shorter than the current schedule. 70 road games, 70 home games.
I would propose to take out three weekday games per month on average, but five per month in April and September (school months) and only one per month in June and July. These games are the least attended games of the year anyway. [Edit - and it's really cold in the northern cities, anyway].
You say, what about the attendance? I say that making Baseball more scarce will hardly affect attendance. All of the games become more precious as the quantity is reduced. Your ratio of opening day and pennant race games to April clunkers is increased dramatically. Since baseball attendance is only about 70% of capacity anyway, increasing attendance to 75% of capacity will have a wash effect with the reduced number of games. This could be accomplished easily because those folks who buy eight game plans now will be forced into fewer games, and the casual fan who goes to 1 or 2 games per year will still be going to those games. Your only loss is the season ticket holders who buy seats to each game...but they also get substantial (10% or more) discounts on tickets. Raise ticket prices by 5% to make their discounts only 5% and you might just be at a wash, attendance and price-wise.
Also, if you reduce the number of games, you INCREASE the chances that each particular team will be involved in a pennant race. The delta between the best teams and the worst teams decreases with the absolute number of games (even if it stays the same percentage wise). If more teams are in the pennant chace, then their attendance will rise.
A reduction in the number of games by 22 games also does a great thing....it reduces the need for a 5th starter. Your top four starters could make 35 starts each in a 4 man rotation in a 140 game schedule. With the extra off days, this doesn't even mean they'll be getting less rest. It also spaces the off days more in April, where pitchers need the most time to recover. Bringing back the four man rotation, of course, reduces the need to spend gobs of money on starting pitching...thus have a reduction on payrolls.
You ask, what about TV money? Most of the TV money is made from the post season. ESPN is not going to pay less for Sunday night and Wednesday night games because they still we be able to televise Sunday night and Wednesday night games.
What about local TV money? My guess is that local stations pay for the rights to televise a good package of games, not necessarily a large package. The value of a 70 game package is pretty much the same as an 80 game package for a regional sports network/local broadcast affiliate. Plus, with fewer games, there might be greater demand for the games they show, meaning better ratings. More of the games will be on weekends, which means fewer conflicts with prime-time programming.
Because more games will be on weekends, a higher percentage of the games will be day games. Baseball is meant to be played in the sunshine, damnit. [Edit - no, I'm not some latent Cubs fan. I just like daytime baseball. It goes better with bratwurst.]
Stats? Sure, Barry Bonds' 73 home runs will be safe, and no one will touch Wilson's 191 RBI record. But the chances of another .400 hitter go up. (Fewer 100 rbi men means fewer big contracts, too.) Hitting 50 home runs will mean something again, especially facing 1-4 starters, not 5th starters 20% of the time. Pitching stats in a four-man rotation won't be appreciably different. 35 starts is 35 starts either way.
Vasquez and the 10-game segments
Well, that was a less than pleasing game last night. Despite the enthusiasm created by the way the White Sox played in Yankee Stadium, the White Sox are now down 2-4 on the Yankees for the year - a struggling Yankee team at that. You might say well, the White Sox have run into a tough Javier Vasquez twice, but it's funny, the Red Sox didn't have so much trouble with him, and they aren't hitting as well as the White Sox right now. If the White Sox lose tonight, they'll have lost 5 of 7 from the Yankees. Not so good.
Let's only hope the Twinkies repeat their 2003 performance versus the Yankees (0-7).
By the way, the schedule has the White Sox playing only 8 of their first 33 games versus the A.L. Central, while the Twins play their first 18 games against AL Central foes. The Twinks then play Toronto, Seattle, Anaheim, Oakland and Seattle before playing the White Sox.
I like to break up the schedule into 10-game segments, to track the Sox's performance over the year. I figure out of the 16 10-game segments (yeah I know the season is 162 games), the Sox need to have at least four or five 7+ win segments to reach 86 wins. So far, the Sox went 6-4 in the first 10 game segment and are now 2-2 in the second 10 game segment.
Comments-[ comments.]
Well, that was a less than pleasing game last night. Despite the enthusiasm created by the way the White Sox played in Yankee Stadium, the White Sox are now down 2-4 on the Yankees for the year - a struggling Yankee team at that. You might say well, the White Sox have run into a tough Javier Vasquez twice, but it's funny, the Red Sox didn't have so much trouble with him, and they aren't hitting as well as the White Sox right now. If the White Sox lose tonight, they'll have lost 5 of 7 from the Yankees. Not so good.
Let's only hope the Twinkies repeat their 2003 performance versus the Yankees (0-7).
By the way, the schedule has the White Sox playing only 8 of their first 33 games versus the A.L. Central, while the Twins play their first 18 games against AL Central foes. The Twinks then play Toronto, Seattle, Anaheim, Oakland and Seattle before playing the White Sox.
I like to break up the schedule into 10-game segments, to track the Sox's performance over the year. I figure out of the 16 10-game segments (yeah I know the season is 162 games), the Sox need to have at least four or five 7+ win segments to reach 86 wins. So far, the Sox went 6-4 in the first 10 game segment and are now 2-2 in the second 10 game segment.
Wednesday, April 21, 2004
Walking in the Minors
At one point, the White Sox had apparently bought into the concept of on base percentage. As Kenny Williams allegedly said before the 2002 campaign (from the Verducci article):
I hope that Kenny really did believe that, and makes it a priority to get players who have solid OBP. After all, OBP is highly correlated (statistical term) to
scoring runs.
Of course, batting average is important to OBP. Any particular player's OBP is going to be based in large part on his batting average (e.g., if a player has .250 average with a .350 OBP, 70+% of his times on base are due to hits).
However, because the vast majority of major league hitters fall within a narrow range of batting averages (.250 to .330 or so), walks become exceeding important to on base percentage. The leaders in OBP are generally the leaders in walks in any particular year.
[As an aside, those with good batting eyes also tend to be better hitters, because a higher percentage of the pitches they swing at are strikes, and they are in a higher percentage of situations (3-1, 2-0) where pitchers are likely to throw fastball strikes]
So how is Kenny doing in terms of drafting and promoting minor leaguers who show a tendency to draw walks? Doesn't look so good so far this year. Using 60 walks per year as an indicator of a "tendency to draw walks," here's who's walking [in bold] and not walking so far this year:
CHARLOTTE
BIRMINGHAM
BATTERS G AB BB bb/gm bb/162 bb/ab bb/500 ab
#Blakely, Darren 9 30 5 0.56 90.00 0.17 83.33
#Franklin, Micah 10 32 4 0.40 64.80 0.13 62.50
Maldonado, Carlos 6 20 3 0.50 81.00 0.15 75.00
McNeal, Aaron 10 39 1 0.10 16.20 0.03 12.82
Morse, Michael 8 28 1 0.13 20.25 0.04 17.86
*Murphy, Nate 10 34 2 0.20 32.40 0.06 29.41
#Reyes, Guillermo 5 14 2 0.40 64.80 0.14 71.43
Sasser, Rob 9 29 7 0.78 126.00 0.24 120.69
*Shaffer, Josh 3 10 1 0.33 54.00 0.10 50.00
Spidale, Mike 8 26 5 0.63 101.25 0.19 96.15
Stewart, Chris 7 22 1 0.14 23.14 0.05 22.73
#Yan, Ruddy 8 33 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
WINSTON-SALEM
BATTERS G AB BB bb/gm bb/162 bb/ab bb/500 ab
Amador, Chris 7 21 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Anderson, Brian 7 24 1 0.14 23.14 0.04 20.83
Becker, Brian 10 34 3 0.30 48.60 0.09 44.12
#Cameron, Troy 9 29 3 0.33 54.00 0.10 51.72
Lee, Carlos 5 16 1 0.20 32.40 0.06 31.25
Lopez, Pedro 10 38 1 0.10 16.20 0.03 13.16
*Martel, Normand 8 19 2 0.25 40.50 0.11 52.63
Myers, Mike 6 5 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
*Nanita, Ricardo 9 31 9 1.00 162.00 0.29 145.16
*Nicholson, Tommy 7 13 1 0.14 23.14 0.08 38.46
*Rogowski, Casey 9 24 3 0.33 54.00 0.13 62.50
Rosa, Wally 5 14 3 0.60 97.20 0.21 107.14
*Sweeney, Ryan 10 32 2 0.20 32.40 0.06 31.25
KANNAPOLIS
BATTERS G AB BB bb/gm bb/162 bb/ab bb/500 ab
*Bounds, Brandon 6 23 2 0.33 54.00 0.09 43.48
*Brice, Thomas 9 28 3 0.33 54.00 0.11 53.57
Gonzalez, Andy 9 33 4 0.44 72.00 0.12 60.61
Gray, Antoin 5 10 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kelly, Chris 5 16 1 0.20 32.40 0.06 31.25
*King, Clint 7 25 1 0.14 23.14 0.04 20.00
Lisk, Charlie 9 30 1 0.11 18.00 0.03 16.67
Molina, Gustavo 3 4 1 0.33 54.00 0.25 125.00
Morris, Seth 8 25 1 0.13 20.25 0.04 20.00
Schnurstein, Micah 8 29 1 0.13 20.25 0.03 17.24
Valido, Rob 9 35 1 0.11 18.00 0.03 14.29
Young, Chris 9 32 3 0.33 54.00 0.09 46.88
It's still early (stats through Monday), but these are not promising results. A lot of the high-walk minor leaguers are non-prospects like Bikowski and Nelson. It's also weird that a lot of the high-walkers are in Birmingham.
Anyway, it's something I will follow as the season progresses.
And, hopefully, I can figure out how to align stuff on the blogs. [Edit - I did just arrange the Charlotte stuff into a table, and boy is that a lot of work for little reward. There's got to be some sort of short cut]
Comments-[ comments.]
At one point, the White Sox had apparently bought into the concept of on base percentage. As Kenny Williams allegedly said before the 2002 campaign (from the Verducci article):
"We have the capability of scoring 950 runs," Williams said. "Teams that do that generally find themselves in the playoffs. When you get to that level all you need is decent pitching. Just decent. I'm a big believer, especially in this league, of getting guys on base and getting them in."
I hope that Kenny really did believe that, and makes it a priority to get players who have solid OBP. After all, OBP is highly correlated (statistical term) to
scoring runs.
Of course, batting average is important to OBP. Any particular player's OBP is going to be based in large part on his batting average (e.g., if a player has .250 average with a .350 OBP, 70+% of his times on base are due to hits).
However, because the vast majority of major league hitters fall within a narrow range of batting averages (.250 to .330 or so), walks become exceeding important to on base percentage. The leaders in OBP are generally the leaders in walks in any particular year.
[As an aside, those with good batting eyes also tend to be better hitters, because a higher percentage of the pitches they swing at are strikes, and they are in a higher percentage of situations (3-1, 2-0) where pitchers are likely to throw fastball strikes]
So how is Kenny doing in terms of drafting and promoting minor leaguers who show a tendency to draw walks? Doesn't look so good so far this year. Using 60 walks per year as an indicator of a "tendency to draw walks," here's who's walking [in bold] and not walking so far this year:
CHARLOTTE
| Batter | Games | AB | BB | BB/G | BB/162 | BB/AB | BB/500AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bell,Mike | 11 | 38 | 1 | 0.09 | 14.73 | 0.03 | 13.16 |
| Bikowski, Scott | 7 | 23 | 4 | 0.57 | 92.57 | 0.17 | 86.96 |
| Borchard, Joe | 12 | 47 | 3 | 0.25 | 40.50 | 0.06 | 31.91 |
| Burke, Jamie | 9 | 38 | 3 | 0.33 | 54.00 | 0.08 | 39.47 |
| Dransfeldt,Kelly | 12 | 34 | 4 | 0.33 | 54.00 | 0.12 | 58.82 |
| Hankins,Ryan | 5 | 18 | 1 | 0.20 | 32.40 | 0.06 | 27.78 |
| Nelson,Bryant | 12 | 48 | 6 | 0.50 | 81.00 | 0.13 | 62.50 |
| Paz,Rich | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Reed,Jeremy | 12 | 49 | 2 | 0.17 | 27.00 | 0.04 | 20.41 |
| Rivera,Mike | 10 | 37 | 3 | 0.30 | 48.60 | 0.08 | 40.54 |
| Smith,Bobby | 10 | 38 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Valenzuela,Mario | 7 | 22 | 1 | 0.14 | 23.14 | 0.05 | 22.73 |
BIRMINGHAM
BATTERS G AB BB bb/gm bb/162 bb/ab bb/500 ab
#Blakely, Darren 9 30 5 0.56 90.00 0.17 83.33
#Franklin, Micah 10 32 4 0.40 64.80 0.13 62.50
Maldonado, Carlos 6 20 3 0.50 81.00 0.15 75.00
McNeal, Aaron 10 39 1 0.10 16.20 0.03 12.82
Morse, Michael 8 28 1 0.13 20.25 0.04 17.86
*Murphy, Nate 10 34 2 0.20 32.40 0.06 29.41
#Reyes, Guillermo 5 14 2 0.40 64.80 0.14 71.43
Sasser, Rob 9 29 7 0.78 126.00 0.24 120.69
*Shaffer, Josh 3 10 1 0.33 54.00 0.10 50.00
Spidale, Mike 8 26 5 0.63 101.25 0.19 96.15
Stewart, Chris 7 22 1 0.14 23.14 0.05 22.73
#Yan, Ruddy 8 33 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
WINSTON-SALEM
BATTERS G AB BB bb/gm bb/162 bb/ab bb/500 ab
Amador, Chris 7 21 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Anderson, Brian 7 24 1 0.14 23.14 0.04 20.83
Becker, Brian 10 34 3 0.30 48.60 0.09 44.12
#Cameron, Troy 9 29 3 0.33 54.00 0.10 51.72
Lee, Carlos 5 16 1 0.20 32.40 0.06 31.25
Lopez, Pedro 10 38 1 0.10 16.20 0.03 13.16
*Martel, Normand 8 19 2 0.25 40.50 0.11 52.63
Myers, Mike 6 5 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
*Nanita, Ricardo 9 31 9 1.00 162.00 0.29 145.16
*Nicholson, Tommy 7 13 1 0.14 23.14 0.08 38.46
*Rogowski, Casey 9 24 3 0.33 54.00 0.13 62.50
Rosa, Wally 5 14 3 0.60 97.20 0.21 107.14
*Sweeney, Ryan 10 32 2 0.20 32.40 0.06 31.25
KANNAPOLIS
BATTERS G AB BB bb/gm bb/162 bb/ab bb/500 ab
*Bounds, Brandon 6 23 2 0.33 54.00 0.09 43.48
*Brice, Thomas 9 28 3 0.33 54.00 0.11 53.57
Gonzalez, Andy 9 33 4 0.44 72.00 0.12 60.61
Gray, Antoin 5 10 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kelly, Chris 5 16 1 0.20 32.40 0.06 31.25
*King, Clint 7 25 1 0.14 23.14 0.04 20.00
Lisk, Charlie 9 30 1 0.11 18.00 0.03 16.67
Molina, Gustavo 3 4 1 0.33 54.00 0.25 125.00
Morris, Seth 8 25 1 0.13 20.25 0.04 20.00
Schnurstein, Micah 8 29 1 0.13 20.25 0.03 17.24
Valido, Rob 9 35 1 0.11 18.00 0.03 14.29
Young, Chris 9 32 3 0.33 54.00 0.09 46.88
It's still early (stats through Monday), but these are not promising results. A lot of the high-walk minor leaguers are non-prospects like Bikowski and Nelson. It's also weird that a lot of the high-walkers are in Birmingham.
Anyway, it's something I will follow as the season progresses.
And, hopefully, I can figure out how to align stuff on the blogs. [Edit - I did just arrange the Charlotte stuff into a table, and boy is that a lot of work for little reward. There's got to be some sort of short cut]
Valentin's lefty only experiment
As most of you know, Jose Valentin has decided to hit exclusively from the left side this year. After hitting a very weak .157/.224/.267 from 2001-2003, Jose really wasn't helping against left-handed pitchers. Given that the White Sox's AL Central opponents include multiple lefty starters, Jose might have found himself riding the pine quite a bit this year without improvement.
After a horrible start in KC where he struck out in his first six plate appearances against lefties, he's really turned it around. If you're counting, and who isn't, he's been 6 for 14 since, with only a single strikeout. That pencils out (or, Excels out) to a .428 average.
Now, I wouldn't expect Valentin to hit .300/.364/.450 against lefties all year, but a .250/.310/.400 line would be a dramatic improvement and would push his value up for the White Sox. That might be worth an extra "W" over the course of the year. And every "W" is going to count.
Comments-[ comments.]
As most of you know, Jose Valentin has decided to hit exclusively from the left side this year. After hitting a very weak .157/.224/.267 from 2001-2003, Jose really wasn't helping against left-handed pitchers. Given that the White Sox's AL Central opponents include multiple lefty starters, Jose might have found himself riding the pine quite a bit this year without improvement.
After a horrible start in KC where he struck out in his first six plate appearances against lefties, he's really turned it around. If you're counting, and who isn't, he's been 6 for 14 since, with only a single strikeout. That pencils out (or, Excels out) to a .428 average.
Now, I wouldn't expect Valentin to hit .300/.364/.450 against lefties all year, but a .250/.310/.400 line would be a dramatic improvement and would push his value up for the White Sox. That might be worth an extra "W" over the course of the year. And every "W" is going to count.
Opening Post
Well, here I go hurtling my thoughts on the White Sox into the void. Since I work long hours, I don't know how regular I'll be able to go at this. Hopefully, I can spend 10 minutes writing at lunch and whenever I think about it at home.
At all times, I welcome your comments or thoughts or questions, you can e-mail me at [to much spam - deleted]
One additional note - I will not address issues related to White Sox ownership, i.e., Jerry Reinsdorf and the gang at Chicago White Sox Ltd. Kenny Williams is fair game.
Comments-[ comments.]
Well, here I go hurtling my thoughts on the White Sox into the void. Since I work long hours, I don't know how regular I'll be able to go at this. Hopefully, I can spend 10 minutes writing at lunch and whenever I think about it at home.
At all times, I welcome your comments or thoughts or questions, you can e-mail me at [to much spam - deleted]
One additional note - I will not address issues related to White Sox ownership, i.e., Jerry Reinsdorf and the gang at Chicago White Sox Ltd. Kenny Williams is fair game.
