Black Betsy

Fifth Starter - Why Not Another Name?

How about Tomo Ohka for the 5th starter slot? A few of reasons why: (1) He's got an ERA of 3.05; (2) has walked only 14 in 62 innings pitched; (3) earns only $2.3 million - the Sox would probably only have to pay $1.6 million of that for the rest of the year; (4) he is Japanese, and thereby provides a friend/buddy for Shingo Takatsu; (5) he's got a career ERA of less than 4.00; and (6) the Expos' hitting is atrocious. Among other things, they are getting a .251/.301/.368 line from their Left-Fielders, a .252/.292/.353 line from their Center Fielders, and a .234/.306/.389 line from their Right Fielders.

So why not package up Jon Rauch, Timo Perez, and Joe Borchard for Tomo Okha and a lower-level OF prospect? Montreal gets a starting pitcher they likely can plug into the rotation now (Rauch) plus a MLB outfielder (Perez) and a top OF prospect who likely could be playing for Montreal this year (Borchard)? Rowand could also be subbed into this deal - leaving space for Jeremy Reed on the 25-man roster. It's most likely a salary wash for Montreal - they skip out on paying Okha $1.6 million, and pick up major-league-minimum players in return.

Another Fine Gribben Statistic/More On The Twinkies Luck

As I mentioned in my previous post, the second half schedule favors the White Sox over the Twins. Doug Gribben, and invaluable participant on the White Sox mailing list, pointed out just how lopsided the schedule has been for the Twins thus far:

----- Original Message -----
From: "Doug Gribben"
To:
Sent: Saturday, May 29, 2004 2:44 PM
Subject: [WHITESOX] More strength-of-schedules...

Strength of schedule:
WhiteSox: 28-19 (.596) vs 185-186 (.499) opposition --> .592 against a .500 schedule
Twins 26-21 (.563) vs 174-200 (.465) --> .510 against a .500 schedule

----------------------------

The Twinkies thus far have played about as well as a .500 team, which shows in Clay Davenport's adjusted standings (which looks at how many runs they would have scored/allowed based on their performance). All other things being equal, the Twinks should be about 22-26 rather than 26-22.

I'm more and more interested in why the Twinkies play so well above what their statistics would otherwise suggest. I've checked out defensive efficiency - e.g., the percentage of balls in play a defense turns into outs - and the Twinkies have not been better than the White Sox over the last four years. In fact, since 2001, the White Sox have turned more balls hit into play than outs than the Twinkies have.

I've already shown how the Twinkies' bullpen really isn't providing the difference. So if the Twinkies' defense and bullpen performance isn't providing the difference, what is? Could it be clutch hitting?

Here is the relative hitting of the two teams in "close and late" situations, according to ESPN:

Type	2003 White Sox	2003 Twinkies	2002 White Sox	2002 Twinkies
FOR	.279/.345/.445	.279/.348/.399	.256/.342/.408	.268/.342/.441
AGAINST	.235/.317/.361	.264/.319/.385	.267/.331/.387	.255/.323/.396

Again - there is no real difference between the White Sox and the Twins, especially in 2003. The search for why the Twins have played better than their pythagorean record would suggest goes on...

// posted by SuperNoVa @ 12:49 PM (0) comments

Killing Lefties

It's truly amazing how the White Sox have thrashed lefties this year to the tune of a .313/.393/.562 line. Roughly speaking, they are generating about 1 run per every 3 outs, or about a 9-run-per game average.

This is a good thing, considering the fact that the White Sox play in a lefty-heavy division. Right now, the following port-siders are starting for AL Central teams: C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Brian Anderson, Jimmy Gobble, Darrelly May, Mike Maroth, Nate Robertson, and Johan Santana. If the combined rotations of the other 4 teams are 20 members strong, that means 40% of the Sox's division games will be against left-handers. Scoring 9 runs per game on average against those pitchers would obviously put the Sox way ahead.

The other positive aspect of this is that the Sox will be able to keep their platoon members sharper. Rowand, for one, really hits lefties - he's hitting at a .351/.442/.622 pace this year after hitting .298/.356/.463 from 2001-2003.

I'm beginning to believe more and more that the White Sox, if they can stay healthy, will be poised to explode in the second half of the year when they get to feast on the Royals, Tigers and Indians. These matchups are extremely good for the White Sox as constituted and, if things break the right way, we could see the Sox with a 95 win season - far better than my 84 win pre-season projection.

OK - Upgrade the optimism level from "guarded and mild" to "guarded and good." If the Sox get to 95 wins, it'll be "barely contained enthusiasm."

Walking Through The Minors (Again)

Here's another periodic update on who is walking and who is not walking in the minors:

Charlotte

BATTERS	AB	BB	BB/AB	BB/500
Aceves, Jon	26	4	0.15	76.92
Bell, Mike	164	12	0.07	36.59
X*Bikowski, Scott	66	9	0.14	68.18
#Borchard, Joe	157	12	0.08	38.22
Burke, Jamie	101	9	0.09	44.55
Dransfeldt, Kelly	94	8	0.09	42.55
Hankins, Ryan	86	8	0.09	46.51
#Nelson, Bryant	193	17	0.09	44.04
X*Nicholson, Tommy	3	0	0.00	0.00
Paz, Rich	56	8	0.14	71.43
*Reed, Jeremy	174	24	0.14	68.97
X#Reyes, Guillermo	12	1	0.08	41.67
X Rivera, Mike	40	3	0.08	37.50
Smith, Bobby	177	9	0.05	25.42
Torres, Andres	103	10	0.10	48.54
Valenzuela, Mario	117	7	0.06	29.91

Birmingham

BATTERS	AB	BB	BB/AB	BB/500
X Aceves, Jonathan	21	4	0.19	95.24
*Bikowski, Scott	40	5	0.13	62.50
X#Blakely, Darren	84	12	0.14	71.43
#Franklin, Micah	82	10	0.12	60.98
Maldonado, Carlos	122	13	0.11	53.28
*Martel, Normand	22	1	0.05	22.73
McNeal, Aaron	165	12	0.07	36.36
*McNichol, Brian	1	0	0.00	0.00
Morse, Michael	125	8	0.06	32.00
*Murphy, Nate	149	13	0.09	43.62
*Nicholson, Tommy	10	2	0.20	100.00
#Reyes, Guillermo	28	2	0.07	35.71
Sasser, Rob	143	22	0.15	76.92
*Shaffer, Josh	77	10	0.13	64.94
Spidale, Mike	134	21	0.16	78.36
Stewart, Chris	119	6	0.05	25.21
#Yan, Ruddy	172	7	0.04	20.35

Winston-Salem

BATTERS	AB	BB	BB/AB	BB/500
Amador, Chris	107	0	0.00	0.00
Anderson, Brian	144	16	0.11	55.56
Becker, Brian	164	15	0.09	45.73
#Blakely, Darren	15	0	0.00	0.00
X#Cameron, Troy	45	5	0.11	55.56
Gonzalez, Andy	115	27	0.23	117.39
Lee, Carlos	69	5	0.07	36.23
Lopez, Pedro	98	2	0.02	10.20
X*Martel, Normand	68	2	0.03	14.71
Myers, Mike	21	4	0.19	95.24
*Nanita, Ricardo	135	16	0.12	59.26
X*Nicholson, Tommy	105	15	0.14	71.43
Perez, Melvin	5	0	0.00	0.00
*Rogowski, Casey	154	19	0.12	61.69
Rosa, Wally	72	14	0.19	97.22
*Sweeney, Ryan	169	9	0.05	26.63
Wade, Mike	4	0	0.00	0.00

Kannapolis

BATTERS	AB	BB	BB/AB	BB/500
*Bounds, Brandon	67	2	0.03	14.93
*Brice, Thomas	158	19	0.12	60.13
Castillo, Cesar	0	1	N/A	N/A
Cook, David	73	10	0.14	68.49
Daigle, Leo	113	13	0.12	57.52
X Gonzalez, Andy	48	4	0.08	41.67
Gray, Antoin	136	8	0.06	29.41
*Haggerty, Cory	56	9	0.16	80.36
Kelly, Chris	19	2	0.11	52.63
*King, Clint	99	11	0.11	55.56
Lisk, Charlie	134	4	0.03	14.93
Molina, Gustavo	56	7	0.13	62.50
Morris, Seth	107	2	0.02	9.35
Schnurstein, Micah	160	6	0.04	18.75
Valido, Rob	172	8	0.05	23.26
Young, Chris	154	19	0.12	61.69

Looks like the honor roll (60+ BB per 500 with at least 100 AB) so far is Aceves (2 stops), Bikowski (two stops), Reed, Sasser, Nicholson (2 stops), Spidale, Andy Gonzalez, Rogowski, Brice, Chris Young.

Note - Thomas Brice is tearing up Kannapolis and playing in the outfield. He's got to be bumped up to W-S soon. This would make sense if Brian Anderson (honorable mention with 55 BB/500) gets moved up to Birmingham a la Jeremy Reed 2003.

Floyd Bannister's (Near) Perfect Game

Keith Woolner had a piece in Baseball Prospectus today on "hidden" perfect games, i.e., where pitchers got 27 batters in a row out over multiple games. This was the second article from Woolner on the subject - he had asked people to guess who might have had a hidden perfect game in the past. I noticed that Keith used my guess of "Floyd Bannister?" as an example of a wrong answer of a pitcher who had thrown a "hidden" perfect game.

Nevertheless, the whole topic reminded me of the game in 1987 when Floyd Bannister faced the minimum 27 hitters against Seattle in the Kingdome. I remember watching that game that day and being amazed by his performance. The only man to get a hit was Harold Reynolds in the 3rd inning, and he was immediate thrown out at 2nd base trying to stretch his single into a double. So, in fact, no batter really ever reached base against old Floyd - he got 'em all out in a row without the help of a double play or a caught stealing.

What amazes me about that game was Carlton Fisk's comment after it, which I read in the Tribune or Sun-Times at the time. What I recall was that Bannister only shook off Fisk one time that game - the pitch Reynolds smacked for a single. So Floyd didn't throw what the record books count as a perfect game, but Fisk called a perfect game. I've always gotten a little bit of pleasure out of that thought.

White Sox - Major League Walk Rate

NAME	AB	BB	BB/AB	BB/500
M. Ordonez	167	14	0.08	41.92
Carlos Lee	163	18	0.11	55.21
Joe Crede	151	8	0.05	26.49
Paul Konerko	149	21	0.14	70.47
Juan Uribe	149	12	0.08	40.27
Frank Thomas	133	40	0.30	150.38
Willie Harris	121	13	0.11	53.72
Jose Valentin	112	9	0.08	40.18
Aaron Rowand	103	7	0.07	33.98
Miguel Olivo	86	6	0.07	34.88
S. Alomar Jr.	63	4	0.06	31.75
Timo Perez	63	2	0.03	15.87
Ross Gload	54	3	0.06	27.78
K. Dransfeldt	18	0	0.00	0.00
Jamie Burke	1	1	1.00	500.00
White Sox	1533	158	0.10	51.53

The majority of these totals are very good news - the White Sox are generally improving their walk rates, and often by a substantial amount.

Willie Harris is 83% above his pre-2004 walk rate, Paul Konerko is 61% above, Carlos Lee is +50%, Juan Uribe is +57%, Rowand is +16%, Miguel Olivo is +11%, Magglio is -5%, and Joe Crede is -2%. Jose Valentin is down big, however, walking 30% less than his pre-2004 rate would suggest.

Even Big Frank is +43% above his already prodigous career walk rate.

Sox Offensive Production Improvement

The Sox's offensive production improvement over last year is probably less surprising given the walk rate numbers. The Sox's slugging percentage is .461 right now, up .015 over last year's .446 mark. OBP is up .020 to .351 from last year's .331 mark. Overall the Sox are scoring 5.56 runs per game, up from 4.88 last year - a 14% improvement.

Good news thus far through May. They still are 12-11 in May, a not-so-stellar month on its own. The question is whether the Sox's offense will stay as good or improve in June and July as it has in years past.

My thought was that the Sox had generally had really hot months in June and July over the past 3 years. But, in fact, that's not really the case. Other than a smoking hot July 2003, none of these numbers are really that much better than the Sox's performance in the first two months of this year (numbers are OBP/SLG/OPS):

Year	June	July
2003	.320/.405/.705	.355/.517/.872
2002	.338/.417/.755	.339/.471/.810
2001	.327/.457/.784	.346/.444/.790

The June 2003 numbers are surprising - only a .725 OPS - to generate a 15-13 record. But the OPS against was .675 in June 2003, which was indicative of some pretty good pitching.

But now add in August:

Year	June	July	August
2003	.320/.405/.705	.355/.517/.872	.346/.499/.845
2002	.338/.417/.755	.339/.471/.810	.334/.446/.780
2001	.327/.457/.784	.346/.444/.790	.356/.513/.870

As you can see, August has been a very, very hot month (no pun intended) for the White Sox over the past few years. Let's just hope they can keep the hot summer trend up. Because the Twinkies have the hardest part of their schedule after the All-Star Break, just hanging around with them until the All-Star Break may allow the Sox to explode past them after it. My absolutely fearful prediction - if the Sox are tied or ahead at the All-Star Break, they'll win the division. Even if they are within a couple of games, I'd be optimistic

Can You Say Schadenfreude?

Chris Kahrl takes a poke at the seeming willingness of White Sox fans to cheer the injuries of others at Baseball Prospectus today:

Texas Rangers
Purchased the contract of C-R Ken Huckaby from Oklahoma; placed C-R Gerald Laird on the 15-day DL (torn ligament - thumb). [5/21]
This just sucks. I mean, sure, I'm an A's fan, but bad things do not need to happen to other organizations to make me happy. (No amount of time in Chicago was going to make me that much like White Sox fans.) "

I kind of resemble that remark. But we White Sox fans have been down so long and so low, we need anything to lift our spirits, even if it's a little schadenfreude. I mean, we only suffered through the ritual disembowelment (ok, maybe that's a little harsh) of our division winning staff in 2000, got torpedoed by Frank Thomas's triceps injury in 2001, and killed by Shannon Stewart deciding that he was the second coming of Rickey Henderson (circa 1985) in the second half of 2003. Not to mention that Benji Molina drops the ball to lose a key game against the Twins the same day that Aaron Rowand gets punched out at the plate on a throw from Manny Ramirez. . . MANNY RAMIREZ!.

Oh, the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune we've faced...from Dybzinski's baserunning gaffe to Landrum's homer, McDowell tipping his pitches in the 1993 playoffs, the 1994 strike, the 1996 stretch drive collapse, the 2000 playoffs, with Carlos Guillen's cheating suicide squeeze and the ball off of Kelly Wunsch's gut, Foulke's implosion on June 26, 2001, to the Paniagua disasterlast year. It's been ugly being a White Sox fan.

So when other people suffer a little discomfort, a little misfortune, I think it's not so much that we're glad that they are suffering, it's just that we feel glad that someone else knows what it's like to be a White Sox fan, even if for a little bit.

[By the way, in a meeting at work yesterday, someone told me that I was the first White Sox fan she had ever met. We are rare creatures, indeed.]

More On The Twinkies' Luck, 2001-2004

I had this e-mail exchange with Aaron Stigberg and Doug Gribben on the White Sox List:

----- Original Message -----
Doug Gribben
Saturday, May 22, 2004 12:52 PM
[WHITESOX] Twins outscored so far

The Twins have actually been outscored by their opponents by 8 runs so far this year.

That is not a hallmark of a winning team. For them to be +7 is pure luck.

Doug

Aaron Stigberg
Saturday, May 22, 2004 2:03 PM
Re: [WHITESOX] Twins outscored so far

Oh come on Doug. Exclude the last two drubbings at the hands of our
'Hose and their run differential is +5. Besides, Pythagorean W-L hasn't
worked for the Twins the last several years, and IMO it's not luck.
Call me a romantic, but teams win close games consistently because
they're good and well-managed, not lucky.

Doug Gribben
Saturday, May 22, 2004 2:28 PM
Re: [WHITESOX] Twins outscored so far

Pyth has failed by degree. Last year they outscored their opposition
by 43 runs. The year before by 56. The year before by 5. They managed
to pick up an extra 17 games over three years against the estimate, or one
game in 30.

I believe that management can make teams win more games than they should,
but not some bizarre number.

The 2004 Twins were NINE games over .500 in 39 games with a five run
difference before this series. Even they can't sustain that sort of
difference, which was +7 games over what even they have historically
accomplished.

Doug

Chris Winters
Monday, May 24, 2004 12:40 AM
Re: [WHITESOX] Twins outscored so far

I'm with you on this, GRBI. Stigberg and I have had a back and forth on
this, and I think it's luck. Go to my blog and I count 22 occasions since
2001 when the Twinkies have rallied in the 9th inning (not counting 8th
inning rallies) to win games since 2001 vs. 12 for the Sox.

You might think their bullpen is the reason why, but their bullpen hasn't
been much better than the White Sox's over the last four years. Checking
the splits on ESPN, and you get this:

Year	Twinks Bullpen ERA	Sox Bullpen ERA
2001	4.62	4.26
2002	3.68	3.70
2003	3.84	4.13
2004	4.08	3.54

Even in their best bullpen year - 2002 - the Twinkies didn't have that much
better of a bullpen than the White Sox - yet they cleaned the Sox's clock in
the standings. Even last year, the 0.29 difference really is only a run
every 10 games or so...might have been a 1-2 game difference in the
standings. But that can't make up the difference between the Twinkies'
actual and pythagorean winning percentage. In addition, I think that the
adjustedEQR for and against for the Twinkies actually dictated even worse
results...

-CW

Doug Gribben
2004/05/24 Mon PM 12:42:47 GMT
Re: [WHITESOX] Twins outscored so far

My theory is that all the sabermetrics assume you are playing a game called
"baseball", not whatever that weird game they play in that f*****-up
wonderland in that building in Minnesota is called.

Seriously, the Twins are very, very good at everything the statistics
don't measure. It's shrewd as hell. By building a team that is good at things
that stats don't measure, they get the team cheaper because the player's
arbitration cases aren't as good. It's another form of "Moneyball".

But it's only been successful because the Twins have not been seriously
challenged. A bunch of earnest, slightly-above average kids from Lake
Wobegon can edge the White Sox every time -- when the White Sox aren't
playing to win.

We'll see if things are really different this year. I think they are because
Mr I Don't Really Care If I Win Or Not is gone, and .200 hitters won't be
allowed to decide games with .317 hitters on the bench "resting" now. But
there are 119 games left to screw up.

Doug

// posted by SuperNoVa @ 12:50 AM (0) comments

Fifth Starter Problem

It is not news that the White Sox have a fifth starter problem. Buerhle, Loaiza, Garland and Schoeneweis have been as solid as one could expect as 1-4 starters, but the fifth spot is 0-6 at this point between Danny Wright (0-4), Felix Diaz (0-1) and Neil Cotts (0-1). It looks like the team is 1-6 overall when the 5th starters take the hill.

There is common wisdom that there are three sources of solution for the fifth starter problem: (1) promotion from the minor leagues (promoting John Rauch or Jason Grilli); (2) a trade for a starter - perhaps Freddy Garcia from Seattle, who is in his walk year; and (3) continuing to use Neil Cotts, hoping that his poor performance Saturday night was just one bad game.

I'm not sure that any of these solutions are going to work. Sure, of those three possibilities, getting a Freddy Garcia looks the best. But why do we need a fifth starter? Here are the portions of the schedule where the Sox play five games in a row until the All Star Break:

May 25-May 30 (1 5th starter start)
June 8-June 13 (1 5th starter start)
June 15-June 27 (2 5th starter starts)
June 30-July 4 (1 5th starter starts)
July 6-July 11 (1 5th starter starts)

That's a total of 6 (possibly seven given when the off days fall) more 5th starter starts until the All-Star Break. So there's no need for the Sox to overspend to get a 5th starter by trade just yet, especially when a walk-year starter will become available cheaper in July. Moreover, if the focus can be a Cotts-type solution of having a reliever game fill-in for a 5th starter game, that might give the Sox a fighting chance. Going 2-4 in those games is a realistic goal, and may buy time for a solution to present itself more clearly.

Ozzie's Opened Can of Whoop-Ass

I'm not really interested in writing much about the Sox on a game-by-game basis, simply because people can watch the highlights on Baseball Tonight or read about the games in the Tribune or the Sun-Times. But when you have a game like the 17-7 drubbing of the Twins today, you have to write about it. And there are very good reasons to write about it.

I had to experience the essential parts of the game through my Handspring Treo today while I was at Whiskey Creek shooting a 51/53-104 (it was hot and ugly today). TiVo, for some reason, tried to pick up the FSN Chicago feed when that was blacked out instead of the MLB Extra Innings feed. Anyway, on the 16th tee, I saw the White Sox were up three-zippy in the top of the 1st, it buoyed my spirits (which were then dashed as I took a snowman on 16). On 17, I saw that the Twinkies had quickly tied the score in the bottom of the 1st...bummer. Checked again on the 18th tee and saw the Twinks were up 5-3, which pretty much convinced me that I had made a major mistake by congratulating Jon Garland on his maturity a few posts ago. Once again, I was ruing the day I became a White Sox fan.

After the hour-plus trip home, I checked the old Treo and, to my complete startlement, I saw the White Sox had put up a 17 spot on the Twinks. That was sweet as sweet can be. Not only did the White Sox stage a comeback, they did it in a way that really put the beat down on the Twins...this must have been the best thing on TV since Wrath of Khan a couple of weeks ago.

I made it home to catch the 8th and 9th innings on MLB Extra Innings, which had the Twinkies feed. Good old "Circle Me" Bert Blyleven was pretty clear about the situation - the Sox came into the TwinkieDome and hammered the Twinkies. He was making some of the same comments the White Sox announcers have made in the past - that it's still early in the season, these games aren't important as they would be later in the season. Hah! It was the early season swoon for the White Sox last year that doomed them to a second place finish. I would like nothing more than to see the Twinkies suffer the same fate - especially because their second half schedule is tougher than the Sox's second half schedule. But I think this series is the first time the Sox have really beaten the Twinkies in the TwinkieDome for a long time. And it was a good beating. It also proves to the Sox they can win in the TwinkieDome - 4 down, 6 to go. (Importantly, 7 of the 10 TwinkieDome games are in the first half...in the second half its 6 in the Cell and 3 in the Dome for the White Sox against the Twins).

Only one more series for the Sox against the Twins in the first half - in the TwinkieDome June 29-July 1. Taking that series would be huge.

Torn Labrums - Oh How the Sox Have Suffered.

There was a great column in Slate by Will Carroll (who usually writes for Baseball Prospectus) concerning the severity of a torn labrum injury. As most Sox fans know, both Mike Sirotka and Jim Parque suffered torn labrums after the 2000 season when they both pitched effectively.

Carroll's essential conclusion is that:

The leading minds in baseball medicine are flummoxed by the labrum. Doctors can't agree on how to detect a tear, don't know the best way to fix one, and aren't sure why, almost without fail, a torn labrum will destroy a pitcher's career.
...
But if pitchers with torn labrums were horses, they'd be destroyed. Of the 36 major-league hurlers diagnosed with labrum tears in the last five years, only midlevel reliever Rocky Biddle has returned to his previous level. Think about that when your favorite pitcher comes down with labrum trouble: He has a 3 percent chance of becoming Rocky Biddle. More likely, he'll turn into Mike Harkey, Robert Person, or Jim Parque, pitchers who lost stamina and velocity—and a major-league career—when their labrums began to fray.

What's especially interesting about this is that Jon Rauch is known to have suffered a torn labrum. Before 2001, when he suffered the injury, Rauch dominated in the minors - 73 K's in 62 2/3 innings in 1999, and 187 K's in 166 innings in 2000.

Since he's come back, he's been OK, but not great. He had 116 K's in 138 innings in 2002, and 94 K's in 124 innings in 2003. So far in 2004, he's got 39K's in 49 innings. So his strikeout rate looks a little like this:

Year	K	IP	K/9
1999	73	62.3	10.48
2000	187	166	10.13
2002	116	138	7.56
2004	39	49	7.11

So even though Rauch is pitching well at Charlotte - he's 5-2 with a 3.10 ERA in Charlotte's bandbox - he may not really be a good prospect anymore because of his injury. He's likely to be looked at as damaged goods by other organizations, so, while I initially thought that Rauch could be traded for someone good in a mid-season deal, he might not bring the value we would otherwise think.

Bizarro Record Note

After beating up on the Twinkies tonight (again), the White Sox are now 24-17. I thought that record sounded familiar. Believe it or not, the only times the White Sox had a 24-17 record since 1972 occurred in some of the best years in recent Sox history: 1972, 1977, 1993, 1994, and 2000.

I note that in 1983, the Sox began with a 17-24 record, while in 1990, they had a 26-15 record. The best start was 1982 with a 27-14 record.

Weird coinkydink, don't you think?

Just Checked the White Sox Comebacks 2001-2004

Looks like the White Sox have come back from 9th inning deficits to win 12 times during the same stretch (10 fewer than the Twinkies).

Most amazingly - the Sox NEVER scored only one run to tied to later win it in extra innings.

Year	Date	9th Inning Runs	Tied/Won in 9th
2001	25-May	6 (3)	Won
2001	3-Jun	2	Tied
2001	4-Jul	2	Won
2001	10-Aug	5 (4)	Won
2002	21-Jul	2	Won
2002	27-Aug	2	Tied
2002	8-Sep	4	Won
2003	13-Jul	2	Tied
2003	23-Jul	3	Won
2004	14-Apr	2	Won
2004	25-Apr	3	Won
2004	28-Apr	5	Won

I Hate The Twinkies...Reason 1

Over the last 3 years, the Twinkies are by far the luckiest team I've ever seen. Let's look at it from pythagorean winning percentage:

Year	Actual W-L	Pythag. W-L	Difference
2001	85-77	81-81	+4
2002	94-67	86-75	+8
2003	90-72	85-77	+5
2004	24-15	20-19	+4
Total	293-231	272-252	+21

+22 over 3 1/4 years - that's pretty amazing. Twenty-one more wins than their Runs Scored vs. Runs Allowed would suggest.

Here's the thing that upsets me even more - all the comebacks the Twins have generated over that same period. Since 2001, the Twins have had no fewer than 22 (!) comebacks where they were down in the ninth inning and came back to win. This doesn't even count the Twinkies 8th-inning comebacks (like opening day this year, where they scored 4 in the 8th to tie). Only 7 of these 22 games were 1-run jobs. Most were multi-run innings where they snatched victory from the jaws of defeat (number in parentheses are the number of runs the Twinks needed to go ahead):

Year	Date	9th Inning Runs	Tied/Won in 9th
2001	5-Apr	1	Tied
2001	17-May	2	Won
2001	25-Apr	1	Tied
2001	11-May	1	Tied
2001	26-May	2	Tied
2001	19-Jun	2	Won
2001	26-Jun	4	Won
2001	3-Aug	2	Won
2001	4-Oct	2	Won
2002	25-Apr	5 (2)	Won
2002	2-May	2	Tied
2002	4-Aug	1	Tied
2002	25-Sep	1	Tied
2003	1-May	1	Tied
2003	13-May	1	Tied
2003	29-Jun	2	Tied
2003	31-Jul	2	Tied
2003	3-Sep	2	Won
2004	6-Apr	2	Tied
2004	23-Apr	3 (2)	Won
2004	27-Apr	4 (2)	Tied
2004	19-May	4	Won

That's an extraordinary number of comebacks - especially when you consider that before this year, the White Sox hadn't come back from a 4-run deficit in the 9th for something like 15 years. 22 games the Twinks had lost they came back to win. Take only those games out of their win column and the Twinks finish second to the Sox in 2003.

I need to figure out how many games like this the White Sox have won in the same period....my guess is fewer than 10...and probably 7 of the 10 were of the 1 run variety.

In The Minors

2003 first round pick Brian Anderson is now hitting .350 with a good walk rate and a good slugging percentage in High-A Winston-Salem after tonight's 2-4 performance. One would think the Sox would put him on the same track as Jeremy Reed last year - bring him up to Birmingham for the second half. He'd on track to be in the Sox's outfield in 2006.

Jeremy Reed went 0-4 tonight and his average has dropped under .287. I have a feeling, though, when he gets hot, he'll come up to the big club. There are several rumors flying around whitesoxinteractive and soxtalk that he's having continuing wrist problems. Let's hope not, because wrist problems are, well, problems. But it seems more likely that he's just in a temporary slump against AAA pitching.

Andy Gonzalez is getting on base quite a bit for Winston-Salem. Nice to have a shortstop in the minors with a good walk rate. I'm not sold on Juan Uribe as a long term answer at SS for the White Sox. I think he's in the process of regressing to the mean of his lifetime performance.

A Mature 24-year-old Jon Garland?

I was actually at home this evening for the first time in a while and was able to watch the Sox/Toons game on the MLB Extra Innings package. I have to say, that was the best game I've seen Garland throw in a looooong time...maybe since he shut out Boston for 8 innings on May 22, 2002.

I thought Travis Hafner's second two at bats against Garland were especially indicative of how good Garland's command was. He found a hole in Hafner's approach - the breaking ball down and in, and worked that hole. In Hafner's third at bat, he set that pitch up by working away. On 3-2, he used it again (after having struck Hafner out in his second at bat on the same pitch) and put Hafner away. Each of the 3 times Hafner swung and missed on that pitch, Garland put it in the same spot.

The Cleveland announcers were very impressed with Garland. They noted that he was working faster than in previous times the Toons had seen him - getting the ball and throwing it a la Mark Buerhle. And the good pace Garland set made him look efficient.

I have to say, after 4 years of Jerry Manuel's head games (although I'm not sure those head games were anything more than Manuel's incompetence), Garland is a new, mature man under Guillen. Guillen trusts him, and that is making Garland start to trust himself and his stuff. That's a great thing, because Garland's always had great stuff. I'm starting to think that by the end of this season...and if the White Sox should make the playoffs, Garland might just be on the bump in Game 1 or Game 2. High fives all around for Jon G.

So Much For Felix Diaz

Another unimpressive start for Felix Diaz tonight against the Toons. He's really getting knocked around in the Majors thus far, after dominating hitters in AAA Charlotte. The jump from AAA to MLB is steep, but not that far. It's more than a little disquieting to see him fail so miserably in two starts.

But, that's the big leagues. Apparently, he's got a straight fastball that tops out in the low 90's. Major league hitters get where they are because they can hit 92 mph straight balls. Look at the troubles Billy Koch is having - mostly because he throws 94 now instead of 98.

The trouble is, it's hard to see who can help down in Charlotte. Arnie Munoz has been lights out in AA Birmingham, but that's an even bigger jump. You'd like to think that Neal Cotts could maybe start soon, but he's not ready to go 6 innings, and likely wouldn't be ready to do so for a while.

So the 5th starter problem rears its ugly head again for the White Sox, with very little relief on the horizon. I guess Jason Grilli and Jon Rauch are possibilities, but we'll have to see.

Stroll Through The Offensive Statistics

Now that the season is 36 games old (2/9 of the season), it's another good time to look at the Sox's offensive stats to see what we can see.

Carlos Lee's walk rate. Carlos has walked 17 times in 35 games, which puts him on a pace for about 75 walks. That's nice, and he's got a .356 OBP to boot. There's no question that Carlos has had some poor stretches in the early going, but his willingness to take 4 bad ones and trot to first has smoothed out his contributions to the team. The question remains, however - is Carlos some sort of freak hitter that hits poorly when he's more patient? It seems like his walk totals go up when he's not hitting well. Maybe he's just a better hitter (average wise) when he's being aggressive. Overall, the contribution to OBP seems to even out. But maybe his slugging percentage suffers, which is kind of a problem. Only 4 homers so far.

Joe Crede's walk-less, hit-less power performance. Joe's got 8 homers, including some big ones, but only 7 walks (on about a 30 walk pace) and has an OBP of .263. He's hurting the team big time with that OBP number, but his power an clutch hitting have been helping. In times past, Joe's slumps have been characterized by little power. That he's getting his dingers in during his season-long slump thus far is a little weird. If Crede gets hot, getting his average up to something like .270-.280, maybe he'll come through with 40 homers. That would be nice. Don't count on it, though.

Frank's walk-ful, hit-less power performance. And then there's Frank, with 7 long ones and, God bless him, 35 walks in 33 games. He's on base 44% of the time with a .505 SLG percentage. He's still the most productive hitter on the Sox.

Willie Harris. I'm still not convinced, but the .365 OBP is a .365 OBP. He does that all year, and the Sox have found a hitter. Where's your power, though, Willie?

Overall OBP - .345. I've seen shabbier, and it's better than the .331 in 2003, the .338 in 2002, and the .334 in 2001. If it weren't for Joe Crede's woeful .265 OBP, the Sox's OBP would be around .354. Get rid of Rowand, and it's .360, near the top of the league.

Jose's Lefty only experiment. He's got a .636 OPS hitting lefty versus lefties. Crappy, yes, but better than his .491 OPS over 2001-2003 hitting righty versus lefty. You can teach an old dog new tricks.

My Least Favorite Team Is Also The White Sox

Well, the White Sox played a colossally bad first game of the doubleheader today..getting shut down by a AA pitcher making his major league debut. 3 Hits today - 2 for Ross Gload, who was (most peculiarly) hitting out of the three hole. Have I said ARRRRRRGGGGHHHH lately?

By the way, CBS Sportlines has a nice live update feature. It's automatic, and like the MLB.com feature, it has pitch location. I especially like when whoever is updating the pitch location disagrees with the umpire and puts a "ball" in the strike zone or a "strike" outside the zone. It's CBS Sportsline's own QuesTec!

I Continue To Dislike Willie Harris

Willie Harris was a complete zero in the first game of the DH today. Note that he pulled his average up to .327 this year largely due to his 9-for-12 stretch over the last two games of the Toronto series and the 15-0 drubbing on Tuesday night. Before that, he was hitting .260 with a .300 OBP.

I now believe that Willie Harris' hitting streaks are like a recurrent rash - it occasionally flares up, only to quickly subside and disappear as if it were never their in the first place. Yup, that's Willie. The Rash.

Juan Uribe's May Fade

You heard it here first (see below), but it's not surprising that Juan Uribe has faded in May. A number of strikeouts lately and he's swinging at bad pitches. I hope Juan bounces back, because he's arguably been the Hose's MVP thus far this year, but his career record should give anyone pause.

As if you couldn't tell, my enthusiasm level is waning today. I'd describe it as having gone from "guarded but fair" when the Sox were 17-10 to "guarded and low" today.

Willie Harris And His .327 Average

Yes, it's scary, I know. Willie has a .327 average after his 4 for 5 performance (with a walk) tonight. This, of course, is dramatically higher than his .213/.255/.265 career line.

His average has come largely without power - he's got a handful of doubles and no triples or homers. His isolated power number (slugging minus batting average) is below .100 at this point, which is pretty consistent with his career.

So how can Willie be valuable to the White Sox? He's pretty much got to hit .300 and get on base 35-36% of the time. Assuming he slugs .400 with a .300 average, he would still only have an OPS of .750. Even assuming that OBP is worth 40% more than SLG, an adjusted OPS of .880 or so isn't any more valuable than Jose Valentin.

The trouble is that besides this last week, Willie hasn't shown any ability to hit .300. So, if he keeps it up, great. But I'm not sold on Willie just yet.

And Now For Something Completely Different...

Well, the Sox had quite a turnaround from their slumber in Toronto this weekend, pounding out 15 runs on 19 hits in stomping the Orioles tonight. Everybody but Carlos Lee got involved, with Willie Harris (!) and Magglio Ordonez having 4 hits a piece.

The Sox will definitely move up in the old pythagorean standings with this 15-run victory. And they didn't even need Billy Koch to give up gratuitous runs in the 9th inning. (By the way, www.billykochsucks.com is still available if you want it).

I watched the game at home on Comcast Sportsnet (at least the first 6 innings) and I have to say that Mark Buerhle looked exceedingly sharp with his curveball. His curveball is a nice weapon when he can get it over. I wonder if some of the struggles in the last couple of years for him is that he's been a three-pitch pitcher (fastball, cut fastball, change). Anyway, it's nice to see him with a good outing. No doubt, the 5 days of rest helped him out.

Kudos to Ozzie tonight for yanking Buerhle despite the shutout when Buerhle hit 100 pitches after 7 innings. No sense in burning Buerhle out going into the weekend series with the Twinkies (Buerhle will pitch Sunday), especially where Buerhle has shown fatigue in the past coming off of 120 pitch outings. I'm sure Buerhle could have finished the shutout tonight, but here, discretion really was the better part of valor.

As with all 15 run performances, you hope the Sox have something left for tomorrow night against Erik BAY-Dard (as the Orioles announcers pronounce it). Good ol' Erik throws from the left side, so we should have all of our weapons deployed tomorrow night.

Arrgghhhhhh

I've been busy at work, so it's been difficult to post. But the three game sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays was frustrating. Sure, the White Sox are going to run into a buzzsaw every now and again, playing a team that's hot. And the Blue Jays have now won 5 in a row.

The frustrating part of it was thinking about the 10 game segment that the sweep ruined. I wrote earlier about thinking of the season in 16 10-game segments. The Sox were off to a decent start with 2 6-4 segments. The 5-2 start to segment 3 was promising - the Sox only needed to go 1-2 in Toronto to clinch another 6-4 segment or if they could take 2 of 3, have a 7-3 segment.

My little 10-game segment thing is baloney (bologne?) of course, but it is true that a team needs to have really hot stretches to make the playoffs. The Sox need at least 4 or 5 segments where they go 7-3 or better, because we know they will go 3-7 or 2-8 at least once or twice. Every time they can go 7-3 over 10 games, they're gaining 4 games over .500. Put together 4 of those stretches, and the team is 16 games over .500 - meaning that they can play about .500 during the rest of the time and still go 89-73. 89-73 would definitely put the Sox in the playoff race, if not win them the division.

Big series this week. The Sox, at minimum, have to take 2 of 3 from the O's going into the weekend series with the Twinkies. The Twinks aren't super hot right now either (going 2-4 like the Sox on their 6 game SEA/OAK trip), so a little momentum into the weekend can go a long way.

Why Cliff Politte Bumps Around The League

It's pretty evident why Politte can't stay in one place too long. He really has an explosive arm, but simply can't throw strikes. Last night's game against the Toronto Blue Jays is just another example why - he commonly walks the leadoff hitter, who commonly scores. Remember, the ninth inning of the first game of the year began when Politte walked Randa and Ken Harvey.

In fact, the White Sox have lost 4 of the 5 games in which Politte has walked a batter. It looks like that in each of those games, the batter Politte walked came around to score a key run.

He's now got 6 walks in 8.2 innings, a poor ratio by any means. He only walked 17 in 49 innings last year, a much better ratio. My guess is that had Cliff walked only 3 guys, not 6, the White Sox would be 19-9, not 17-11.

Uribe - The Esteban Loaiza of Shortstops

On the White Sox mailing list, Aaron Stigberg made the following posting

From: "Aaron Stigberg"

> I'm on other lists and reading blogs so I'm not sure if this has been
> posted here, but Juan Uribe's career month to month splits are worth
> noting before we anoint him the shortstop of the future. Hope this
> displays properly.
>
> Split Avg OBP Slg OPS
> ----- --- --- --- ---
> April 0.360 0.403 0.502 0.905
> May 0.212 0.288 0.299 0.587
> June 0.229 0.258 0.355 0.613
> July 0.195 0.263 0.305 0.568
> August 0.267 0.288 0.412 0.700
> September 0.302 0.336 0.538 0.874
> October 0.292 0.320 0.875 1.195

Interesting stuff. I had two reactions: (1) I hope Uribe can break out of the April-only funk like Loaiza did last year; and (2) what if the White Sox got 3 or 4 guys who were really hot starters like Uribe every year to get the team going in April while Thomas, Crede, Maggs et al. heat up? Then Kenny can trade 'em while their value is high. Why can't we get Clement for Uribe right now?

Saving The Worst For Me, I Guess

Well, I attended tonight's thrashing at the hands of the Orioles. It was, by far, the worst game played by the White Sox this year. Three errors and only five hits. Even Maggs' homer in the first was kind of an ugly swing. I missed Crede's homer while I was going to buy a italian sausage (more on that later).

I think tonight was Dransfeldt's last night in the majors with the Sox. He did not make it a memorable evening, booting an easy two out grounder that led to a 4 run Oriole rally that really settled the game. It was a pretty good run, Kelly, but you've now even the score at 1-1 in terms of wins and losses where you made the difference. Say hello to Jeremy Reed for us.

Loiaza was not sharp and his fastball did not break 91 all game that I could tell. He was also lackluster in keeping runners from stealing; he appeared not to be paying any attention at all when there was a double steal in the 4th. Olivo also threw two into centerfield on Roberts steal attempts. All around, it was an ugly night.

The Sausage Cycle

As posted in this space below, I attempted and actually achieved the Sausage Cycle this evening. Before the game started, I went to Camden street to pick up a Polish Sausage from a local vendor. It was delicious, flavored with delightful deli mustard. It was the real home run of the group.

While I was still outside on Camden street, I picked up a Bratwurst at another vendor, because I knew I couldn't get it in the Yard. It was a weak bratwurst, but to be expected. For those of you who do not now, it is almost impossible to get a good bratwurst on the east coast. They just aren't made or cooked with the same love you get in the Midwest. I yearn for the brats you get in Chicago. Because of the rarity of bratwurst on the east coast, it was really the triple of the Sausage Cycle.

At the time of Big Joe's home run in the fourth, as discussed above, I was purchasing and beginning to eat an Italian Sausage. It was good for a ballpark italian sausage, and it got spicier as I ate it. With a little peppers and onions, it was a solid double.

After the seventh inning, and the game was out of hand for the White Sox, I finished the Sausage Cycle by downing a Hot Dog. I put some mustard and ketchup on it, and sucked it up to complete the cycle. The hot dog is, of course, the most plentiful sausage and it would have to count as the single of the Sausage Cycle.

Danny Wright Demoted

Danny Wright has been sent down after his latest disastrous start, which made him a perfect 4 for 4 on non-quality start concept.

Jamie Burke gets called up, meaning the Sox have added a third catcher and another right handed bat. I'm not sure why.

It's clear this team needs another left handed bat, preferably someone who plays the outfield. Gee, I don't know who could do that.

The Masses Cry Out - Enough Of Danny Wright

Dan Wright has done nothing in the last two years to show that he should be in the White Sox rotation. Period.

It's unclear whether the Sox will give Danny Wright (or his musical works) any more chances this year. 4 starts is not a whole lot. But they have been 4 bad starts - his best thus far has been a 5 1/3 inning start giving up 3 runs ... not even a quality start. He's now 24 for 67 in producing quality starts in his career. That's just not Major League material.

The problem may be that Danny may be out of options, since he's played parts of 3 years in the big leagues. That means he has to clear waivers to be sent down to Charlotte. The question is whether (1) Kenny Williams could get any trade value from him; and (2) whether he would clear waivers. Danny's got a good arm, so it seems likely that some other club might pick him up and try to turn him into a short reliever (which he should be doing with the White Sox anyway).

However, if you don't send him down, and put him in the bullpen, you have to bring up someone from the minors to put in the starting rotation (perhaps Felix Diaz or Jason Grilli). The likely scenario is that Cotts goes to Charlotte to join their rotation to get stretched out in case Wright's replacement doesn't cut it. Or they dump Adkins into the minors again, although he's probably pitched well enough to stay.

There are no easy answers here as to what to do with Danny Wright. But the solution cannot be to leave him in the rotation.

Three Minor Leaguers I Want To Know More About

(1) Brandon McCarthy - He's pitched 23.2 innings in Kannapolis with 29 strikeouts and 7 walks. He was a 17th round draft pick in 2002, and apparently has shown strikeout abilities for two years now. Still at Kannapolis, his numbers are intriguing.

(2) Mike Spidale - I don't know much about him either, but he's a 22 year old outfielder with Birmingham. I've also seem him credited as a 3B in a box score, but some of the references are to him playing CF, and he's credited with 16 games in the OF by Baseball America so far this year. He's got a pleasing .302/.431/.472 line at Birmingham this year, including a team-leading 12 walks. If he is a CF and can maintain a .400 OBP, that's interesting.

(3) Michael Morse - Apparently, Mr. Morse is a SHORTSTOP with a .338/.384/.634 line so far this year. Only 4 walks, but he's got 5 homers already playing in the Hoover Met, not known as a hitter friendly park. He's still just 22, so he may be a prospect yet. I've heard zippy about him thus far, but it would be nice for the Sox to have a shortstop who can hit in their system. They haven't had one since................Luke Appling? [Edit - There is a story on Morse here.]

Charlotte's Striking Staff

Also encouraging on the minor league front is that Charlotte's starting pitching staff is throwing strikes. Here's what I see:

Pitcher	IP	BB	K
Felix Diaz	31.1	3(!)	29
Jason Grilli	23.2	5	24
Ryan Kohlmeier	23.2	5	24
Jon Rauch	28.2	4(!)	22
Josh Stewart	23	5	13

Pretty great numbers from Diaz, Grilli and Rauch so far.

Which Brings Me To Trade Thoughts...

I think the White Sox have kind of soured on Rauch, so his performance makes him pretty good trade bait. I think, however, that he might come back to haunt the White Sox unless they get quite a bit for him. The Brewers have middle infielders coming up, so Junior Spivey (of the career .363 OBP Spiveys) might become available...although he's a right hand hitter. Jose Vidro may become available, too, but he's making $9,000,000 this year (wow), and that would probably be too much salary unless the Expos wanted to take Carlos Lee off the White Sox's hands.