Black Betsy

Twinkies Strength-of-Schedule vs. Sox Strength-of-Schedule

I've recalculated the Twinkies' and Sox's strength of schedule for the rest of the year based on Baseball Prospectus' "Adjusted Standings" third-order winning percentage. Right now, the schedule for the rest of the year appears pretty equal between the Sox and the Twins. But the Twinkies have an especially easy stretch coming up before and just after the All-Star Break (Arizona 3, Kansas City 7, Detroit 6), while the Sox play a tougher patch (Cubs 3, Anaheim 3, Seattle 3, Oakland 4, Texas 2). But once you get past that point, July 20th, I calculate that the Sox's schedule is two games easier than the Twinkies - a huge difference over a 70-game stretch.

By the time July 20th will have rolled around:

The Twins will have played 16 of 19 against KC, the Sox 5 of 19.
The Twins will have played 15 of 19 against DET, the Sox 0 of 19.
The Twins will have played 6 of 19 against CLE, the Sox 9 of 19.

With Cleveland playing really well lately, and going into the second half, they may hurt the Twins more than anything.

From that point on, the respective schedules break down like this:

Team	vs. East	vs. Central	vs. West
Twinkies	20	29	20
White Sox	6	52	13

I'd say that breaks the Sox way a little bit, wouldn't you?

Why Message Boards Are Useless

Exhibit A as to why the message boards on WSI are generally useless is this post:

Well folks, this is not it. Getting Freddie is great and all, but this is not where it stops. I have a very, very close source to the situation, and I talk to him frequently. He told me that the Sox aren't done yet. I asked him who and when, but the only thing he told me was July. No names, no nothing. Just July. He told me he knew all along about the Garcia trade, its just that he couldn't say anything. So hold on folks, we are going to see some more shortly. And when you ask yourselves, 'Who is this source?', just take my word for it. He is very close to the Sox organization. He is to be believed.

People waste electrons on this stuff? The poster describes a source who won't be named or described as anything other than "very close to the Sox organization," and can only say that, based on his conversation with the source, that the "Sox aren't done trading yet" and that a "July" is when things will happen. I guess when the Sox make another trade in July - (they made 4 of them last year, Everett, Alomar, Schoeneweis, Sullivan), major or minor, this poster will crow that he told you so! Or if nothing happens, the "source" will say that "things fell through because the other team got hot/there was an injury/got caught in salary problems/other team got cold feet/etc."

This is pretty exemplary of the infantile material on the WSI message boards - a person makes an essentially unverifiable claim to seek attention from the other members. Like trolling, it has no value to a conversation on the issues. I think I'm pretty much done with WSI.

Intelligence Report From The Twinkie Blogosphere

I now monitor the Twins Blogosphere; monitoring the enemy's communications is key to maintaining tactical and strategic advantage. One of the things that has popped into the Twinkies' blogs recently is a sense of doubt over whether the Twinkies are a better team than the White Sox this year. Generally, the Twinkie fans have a superiority complex that has developed from an abnormal number of law-of-large-numbers-beating, improbable comebacks and lucky bounces of the ball. And the fact that the Twins cheat . But here's the latest communique from Aaron Gleeman:

I just don't know what to say. I know this is going to anger a lot of Twins fans, but I'm getting very close to the point of just believing that the White Sox have the better team. There are a lot of people who thought this in the past two years, but I haven't been among them ... until now.

Bat-Girl also has misgivings, although she won't offer that the Sox are the better "team":

And yes, the [unbecoming adjective] Sox individual players are better than our individual players. They totally hit the ball and stuff, and they pitch it really good too, and they make lots of money and that's cool.

But we're the better team. And I believe that sooner or later we're going to start playing like it.

Three points in response: (1) this is all a plot by the Twinkies and their fans to lure the Sox and their fans into the kind of complacency that cost the Sox the division title last year (I don't know any Sox fan who thinks the Sox were better than the Twinkies in 2002); (2) more seriously, perhaps the 4 of 5 the Sox have take from the Twinkies in Minnesota have started to have an effect on the teams, as reflected in their fans' reaction. It was really frustrating when the Twinkies dominated the Sox in 2001 (winning 14 of 19), and I think the Sox pressed against the Twinkies thereafter, worsening the situation. If the Twinkies start pressing against the Sox, that's a good thing; (3) if #2 is the case, then perhaps the Sox are finally relaxing against the Twins, are loose, and are starting to play the Twins better. That' would be the best possible news.

In any case, the Sox and their fans cannot start thinking that the Sox are a better team and expect to win the games by showing up at the field. They have to play the games, one at a time. I actually had that thought this morning - I'm not going to think about where the Sox would be if they won the next two games, or 5 of 7, or whatever. I'm just going to try to enjoy every day's game and hope they play well that game, and let the future take care of itself.

A Hearty Welcome To The Blogosphere

I've added a link to The Cheat's blog on the left. If you are one of the people that Fortuna's Wheel has brought you to this site and are interested in the White Sox, The Cheat's blog has shown some promising analysis. He's also a poster at soxtalk.com, which is the most useful source of information on the Sox's minor league system. The message boards there are, well, what you would expect from message boards.

If you are wondering how someone names themself "the Cheat", please run, don't walk, to www.homestarrunner.com. If you are a fan of bizarro comedy and 1980's pop culture, you'll like it. Anyone who can turn the Atari Adventure dragon (which looks like a duck in the primitive graphics of the time) into a music video character deserves our attention and support.

Ben Davis - More Production Than Meets The Eye?

Taking a look at Ben Davis' Career Splits, it really looks like he's been harmed by playing half his games at SafeCo and QualComm Stadium (the Padres' former home), two parks extremely favorable to pitchers. Those parks seem to sap quite a bit of his production. Thanks to the wonders of modern Excel spreadsheets, I've been able to extract out Ben's statistics in AL parks not named SafeCo-

AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	AVG.	OBP	SLG	OPS
264	67	14	0	11	56	16	65	.251	.293	.427	.720

The OBP is pretty poor (and the walk rate low compared to his home averages), but the SLG and ISOp (SLG minus AVG) aren't so bad for a catcher. Ben's hit really well in the Cell - .375/.412/.500 - but that was accomplished against Sox pitching (and in only 16 AB). Assuming that a little bit of success helps Ben, he may be able to improve on those road stats at U.S. Cellular - notice that he hits a home run every 22 or so AB in non-SafeCo AL parks, as opposed to a home run every 60 or so AB in SafeCo.

I don't think that Davis will put up Miguel Olivo-type numbers the rest of the year (Miguel really broke out with his power this year), but it's possible that his production may not be a catastrophic drop off from Miguel's production. We may be talking about a drop from .270/.320/.480 to .250/.300/.420, which is negligible considering that Davis/Olivo would have caught about 50 games the rest of the year.

There's also the fresh start aspect of the situation. Davis could come in and turn his career around with the White Sox and under the tutelage of Greg Walker. I wouldn't hold my breath, but its possible even if it is not probable, that the Sox could be better off for the rest of the year with Davis. Of course, he may hit .095 with the Sox and find himself in the International League.

Roster Move - And Roster Question Raised

The Sox announced that Vic Darensbourg was designated for assignment today. That's not a surprise, because with F. Garcia and B. Davis joining the Major League roster for the White Sox, a spot on the 25-man roster opened up. And, I assume, Vic Darensbourg is out of options as a 33-year old veteran reliever.

His designation for assignment, as the press release rather prominently notes, leaves the Sox with 39 players on the 40 man roster. One might think that raises the possibility that the Sox are not done trading, and that an extra spot on the 40-man roster is necessary. If no trade is made, the other question raised is who the Sox would add to the 40-man roster, who would then be eligible for a September call up. Right now, the prominent Sox farm hands not on the 40-man roster are:


Pitchers -
Kris Honel (curious why Ryan Wing is on, but Honel is not)
Josh Stewart (former ML'er w/ 4.59 ERA in Charlotte)
Jeff Bajenaru (1.16 ERA, 49K in 31 IP in B'ham)
Jose Santiago (former ML'er w/ 2.60 ERA in Charlotte)
Courtney Duncan (former ML'er w/ 1.84 ERA in Charlotte)
Josh Fields (2.03 ERA in B'ham)

Hitters -

Bryant Nelson (.307/.359/.534 in Charlotte)
Mike Spidale (.292/.390/.403 in B'ham)

All the other prominent minor leaguers are Carolina League (high-A or lower), and generally not put on the 40-man.

Wouldn't mind seeing Bajenaru put on the 40-man roster, promoted to Charlotte and, if he does well, given a chance to fill a set up role. 49K in 31 IP is pretty impressive - that's 14.22 K/9!

The Blogosphere Reacts To The Deal

Y2Kornhusker compiled a list of the reactions to the Freddy Garcia trade from the blogosphere - even mentioning a little ol' blog I like to call Black Betsy. Now, he cut my excerpt off when I started talking about why the trade made sense for the White Sox, so it's a little misleading.

The blogosphere, with the delightful exception of Bat-Girl, is generally filled with statheads. And, statheads will think this is a great deal for the Mariners. Without a doubt, the Mariners got quality from the Sox, and probably more than they would have gotten from another team.

A couple of things, however. The Sox are not now, nor in the near future will be, short on corner outfielder prospects. We do have corner outfield incumbents in Carlos Lee (signed through '05) and Magglio Ordonez. If the Sox resign Magglio, there's no place to put Jeremy Reed. So, he's the equivalent of our Mark Teahan - blocked at the major league level. Even if Magglio Ordonez is not resigned, the Sox have Joe Borchard to fill the RF spot. I've never been that high on Joe, but he's shown some improvement in AAA this year and is, by reputation, one of the hardest workers around. We'll see. And I remind everyone that Jeremy Reed hasn't played a single major league game yet. He's likely to be good, but there's that thing about the birds and the bushes.

If Magglio departs and Borchard is his (cheap replacement), the Sox gain a lot of salary flexibility. Billy Botch's $6 million will be off the books, and with Magglio's $14 million coming off, that's $20 million right there. Buerhle, Lee, Crede, Rowand etc. all get raises, but there's still a lot of payroll freed up. That gives the Sox room to resign Freddy Garcia (probably at $8 million per year) and Esteban Loaiza ($5-$6 million - a net $1-2 million add). The rotation can be back for next year, and hopefully, pitching will win championships. A long run into the playoffs also may mean that the Sox take on an additional player in free agency next year - hopefully a left-handed power bat - and 2005 starts looking pretty good.

All in all, the Garcia trade is hard to see as a "bad" trade for the Sox. Sure, the Mariners got a lot of quality, but that doesn't mean that the Sox weren't trading from strengths. I doubt the uproar would have been great had the Twins given up Morneau for Garcia given the depth of LF/1B prospects in the Twinkies' system. In the meantime, the Sox should be positioned to compete with (and hopefully beat) the Twinkies for the AL Central title. And then to the playoffs, where who knows?

If You Were The Twinkies' GM

First, you'd be thanking Fortuna's Wheel that the Twinkies have lucked into about 5 victories this year. Second, you'd have to look at the Freddy Garcia trade and think that the Twinkies have to shore up their own rotation. Kyle Lohse - currently in the 4 hole - is at best a 5th starter, and the Sox's rotation is now clearly 4-5 games better than the Twinkies over the course of the next 3 months.

I think that the Twinkies' GM (Ryan) has got to be considering deals to clear out the Twinkies' backlog of LF/1B prospects from the minors. He's already cleared out Dustin Mohr and Bobby Kielty; it's likely that Justin Morneau, Restovich, et al. could be on the way out this summer. With Russ Ortiz still available, a Ortiz/Morneau deal could be a possibility, althought Morneau's apparently retched performance in the field could be an issue. I'm assuming that the Twinks would have to give up real prospects to get someone like Ortiz and the cash necessary to pay his salary the rest of the way.

The ball is definitely in the Twinkies' court. With the White Sox having faced the toughest part of their schedule in the first half, the Twinkies aren't going to be getting any favors from the schedule maker a la last year.

Seattle Reaction To The Garcia Trade

Derek Zumsteg and David Cameron of Baseball Prospectus fame have a blog, U.S.S. Mariner, that deals with Baseball in the Great Pacific Northwest. They could barely contain their excitement about this trade:

I haven't been this happy to be an M's fan in... a year? Maybe more.

I was sitting at the game today when my phone rang. Normally, I don't answer my phone anyway, and never at games, but it was Jason, and this was more or less our conversation:
JMB: "Dude, they traded Garcia."
DMZ: "Whaaa?"
JMB: "They got Mig--"
DMZ: "Jeremy Reed! Jeremy Reed!"
JMB: "Yes, they got Jeremy Reed. And Miguel Olivio [sic], and a shortstop-- I don't know who yet. We give up Garcia and Ben Davis..."
DMZ: jaw down, staring out at field, blinking
JMB: "Hello?"

The essential analysis of Mariners fans is that they got a whole lot for Freddy Garcia in the trade. And they are right, there's no question that the White Sox gave up a lot for Freddy Garcia. Reed has quite a bit of potential and fits in nicely at Safeco - he can play a good LF and hit a lot of doubles in the gap. Reed alone would justify the Mariners' deal.

Hours later, I have to say that I'm surprised that Olivo would be included in the deal. He was a long-term solution at catcher for the White Sox, with the White Sox owning his rights through 2008. However, I hasten to add that, setting aside his homer against Maddux today, Olivo really has never hit righties well. He's a less than .200 hitter against them over his career, and there simply aren't enough left handers out there for him to feast on. Seattle fans might be disappointed to see his production against righties.

Morse is the Sox's throw-in. His 2004 season is by far his best ever, and there are lingering questions raised by his recent suspension. Apparently, his defense isn't good enough for shortstop, and he's most likely to move to LF or 1B - two positions the Sox have stocked very well, thank you.

The ultimate value from this trade is where Garcia can take the Sox this year. For a team starving for a World Series appearance - 45 years and counting - one year of glory seems worth the price of a future star (Reed) and a solid catcher (Olivo). Garcia's arm puts the White Sox well in front of the Twins in terms of starting rotations; Santana and Radke matchup well against Garcia and Buerhle, but Santana/Radke/Silva/Lohse/TBD are no match for Garcia/Buerhle/Loaiza/Garland/Schoeneweis. Consider this - Garcia is, in effect, replacing the Sox's 5th starter, a place from which they've gotten 2 wins, 8 losses and a 9+ ERA. It's safe to say that Garcia will add 3-4 wins per 10 games started over the 5th starter replacement - assuming another 16 starts, that's an extra 5-6 wins over the rest of the season. Division races are so made.

The Twins probably still have a better bullpen, but the Sox have the better lineup 1 through 9. So the real measure of the value of the Garcia trade will be known on October 3rd. If the Sox haven't made the playoffs, the deal has been a failure.

The Deal Is Done - Freddy Garcia To The White Sox

I just heard on the radio that the Sox have traded Miguel Olivo, Jeremy Reed and Michael Morse for Freddy Garcia,Ben Davis, and my favorite player, Cash.

It's an interesting deal. Jeremy Reed was, obviously, a quality player in the White Sox system, hitting .400 in half a season with power at Birmingham last year. He was hitting in the high .270's with 8 HR in Charlotte this year. He also led Charlotte in walks and was getting on base about 36% of the time. He'll be missed, and the Sox's system will be worse off without him.

Miguel Olivo, as the Sox's starting catcher, will be a void to fill. Ben Davis, who came over in the trade, has never hit very well at the major league level, and is not a long-term solution at the catching position. The Sox now don't have a long-term solution at catcher in their system. Miguel was hitting very well this year - especially against lefties. I like Miguel a lot (so did Kenny Williams, apparently - he said it was the toughest conversation he's had when he let Miguel know he was traded).

Michael Morse is an interesting prospect. He didn't show much hitting potential before this year, but as I've detailed before he's show some ability this year. He's a tall (6'4") shortstop prospect who might fill out and be a shortstop who hits 30 homers a year. We'll see if he continues to progress inthe Seattle system.

Ben Davis is only a throw-in in this deal. He's got a career .237/.310/.362 line, peaking out at .259/.313/.404 with Seattle in 2002. He was a little better away from Safeco, with a .259/.327/.433 line away from Seattle from 2001-2003. If that's his level of production, OK, then he's a stopgap solution.

Garcia is clearly the jewel of the deal. He's 4-7 so far this season, but with a 3.20 ERA and a WHIP of 1.20. He's striking out about 7 per 9 innings, against about 3 walks per 9. Safeco has helped him out - he's got a 2.61 ERA at home and a 3.91 ERA on the road. Most troublingly, he's got a groundball/flyball ratio of only 1.02. Being a flyball pitcher in U.S. Cellular has not been a good thing this year. Just ask Esteban Loaiza (a 1.1 GB/FB ration and 18 HR - 12 HR at the Cell).

Overall, this is a high risk deal. If Garcia goes 10-2 the rest of the way and leads the Sox into the World Series, it's a big success. If Garcia goes 9-3 and leads the Sox into the ALCS and signs an extension for a reasonable amount of money, it's a success. A rotation with Garcia, Buerhle, Loaiza, Garland and Schoeneweis is the best in the AL Central by a couple of lengths. The top isn't as good as the Red Sox rotation with Schilling and Pedro, but the bottom end isn't too shabby. It also forces Garland down to a more natural 4 spot, and Schoeneweis to a 5 spot. It's not clear where it leaves Jon Rauch. The Sox might be wise to keep him as a long man, or leave him in the rotation and put Schoeneweis in the pen where he excelled with the Angels.

I think this puts any Ordonez/Andrew Jones/Russ Ortiz deal on hold. The next logical step is to trade Rauch or Diaz for relief help.

Would Andruw Jones Help The White Sox Defensively?

The latest rumor is that the White Sox will trade Magglio Ordonez and a "pitching prospect" (perhaps Jon Rauch) to the Atlanta Braves for Andruw Jones and Russ Ortiz.

Much of the scuttlebutt about Andruw Jones is that he will dramatically improve the Sox in terms of outfield defense. Andruw Jones is, by reputation, one of the best defensive centerfielders "in the last thirty years." But, as seen with Derek Jeter's lame reputation as a good fielding shortstop, reputations can be outright wrong.

Digging deeper into Andruw Jones' fielding statistics, we see a couple of things.

First, that his zone rating (which defines what percentage of the balls hit to his area of the field are fielded by him) has steadily declined from .922 in 1998 to .786 this season. By comparison, Aaron Rowand's ZR in CF is .910 this year, was .960 in 65 games last year, and .946 in 76 games in 2002. Note that Rowand was mostly a defensive replacement in CF in 2003 - he averaged fewer than 6 innings per game in CF in 2003.

Second, note the number of balls in play that are doubles and triples against the White Sox vs. against the Braves. Here's a table (haven't done one of these in a while):

Year/Team	Balls in Play	2B	3B	% 2B/3B
2004 Braves	2071	131	10	6.81%
2004 White Sox	2033	119	6	6.22
2003 Braves	4556	309	25	7.33%
2003 White Sox	4334	279	24	6.99%
2002 Braves	4371	240	32	6.22%
2002 White Sox	4514	287	16	6.71%

As you can see, the Sox have been better over the last two years in preventing doubles and triples as a percentage of balls in play than the Braves. This is backed up by other data putting the Sox second only to the Mike Cameron-led Mets in fewest doubles and triples per fly ball. The three-headed monster of Rowand/Lee/Maggs looks good in these data, and either Chipper and Sheffield were dragging Andruw down, or Andruw has been tailing off (as his ZR suggests).

Third, I looked at the number of putouts in CF by Andruw Jones vs. Rowand over the last three years. Here's the data:

Year/Player	PO	INN	PO/INN	PO/9	Team FB	Team FB/9	% Team FB
2004 Rowand	96	308	0.31	2.81	759	10.69	0.26
2003 Rowand	101	378	0.27	2.40	1588	9.80	0.25
2002 Rowand	203	601	0.34	3.04	1706	10.53	0.29
2004 Jones	160	613	0.26	2.35	636	8.83	0.27
2003 Jones	390	1329	0.29	2.64	1464	9.04	0.29
2002 Jones	404	1357	0.30	2.68	1534	9.47	0.28

Here, Andruw comes out a little better than Rowand - he's more likely to get a fly ball than his LF and RF teammates. This suggests that maybe Andruw was carrying the weight in Atlanta - and could help to explain the previous 2B/3B figure.

After sorting through all this data, it's hard to tell whether Andruw Jones would have a signifianct impact on the White Sox with his defensive play. I'd probably say he's better than Rowand in CF, but not so much so to warrant a CF/RF combination of Jones/Rowand over Rowand/Maggs. The latter is going to create many more runs than the former. Of course, there are contract issues involved with Maggs (Jones is signed through '07 at about $13 million per, while Maggs is a FA), but unless Atlanta is going to pick up $4-$5 million of Jones' salary over the next few years, this deal simply isn't worth making.

Homer Happy Sox

The Sox have:

Jose Valentin - most HR in MLB by a shortstop
Paul Konerko - most HR in AL by a first baseman
Frank Thomas - most HR in AL by a DH
Jose Uribe - 2nd most HR in AL by a second baseman (10, to A. Soriano's 11)
Joe Crede is tied for 4th in HR by AL third baseman (11, to A Rod's 19 and Chavez and Blake's 13)
Aaron Rowand is tied for 5th in most HR by an AL CF (Hunter has 10, B. Williams, V. Wells and L. Nix have 9)
Miguel Olivo is tied for 7th in HR by an AL Catcher
Magglio Ordonez is tied for 7th in HR by an AL RF (even though he's been out. He'd probably be #2 or #3 behind Vlad's 19 otherwise)

Remembrance of 1959

I encouraged members of the White Sox Mailing List to read my post on the 1959 White Sox and to share their thoughts. One list member, Marian, had the following reminiscence on the 1959 Sox (a couple of comments inserted):

The anticipation when manager Al Lopez came over from Cleveland [ed - for the 1957 season] was huge. He's gotten a bad name since because of Nellie Fox and the HOF [ed: rumor was that Lopez kept Fox out of the Hall of Fame] but at the time, he was considered a 'real' manager- a serious manager.

The Sox were really true to their name, "The Go-Go Sox" which meant that they were an alert team. -Kind of a version of the 'Winning Ugly' team of a later time. Defense was extraordinary. -Reminds me of the old Chicago Bear reputation. Stengel said that the infield robbed opposing teams of 5 base hits in every game..or something like that. We were proud in that fringe way that Sox fans are usually proud if they can be proud at all.

The offense was alert if not particularly brilliant and that's saying a lot. I appreciate that quality in any team- the Angels come to mind right now, for example. Pitching was labor- thankless labor, frequently. The staff really worked and rarely had a big lead to work with. (Do stats back this up?) Wynn was a workhorse- a square man who could endure. But Billy Pierce was the darling of the staff. He didn't have his best year in '59 but he got us there. (How many 1-0 decisions did he win or lose in the preceding couple of years?) [ed: none in 1959, but he won two 1-0 games in 1957 and won one 1-0 game in 1958, while losing no 1-0 games in that period]

Ted Kluszewski was a monster- a visiting Hessian.

Chicago was like a Chagall painting when the Sox won the pennant. -Everyone was dancing and sort of upside down. Everyone talked to everyone else and as I remember, we shouted our good news to each other. It was a Sox town, no doubt about it. Joy rained down from the El tracks. I remember buying a newspaper from a stand downtown and people gathering around trying to express the joy.

The ghosts of 1919 were there too, to be vindicated I think. Maybe they would have been if it weren't for the Dodgers. But then I realize that I believe that we'll never be free of the shadow of the Black Sox. It goes with the territory- like wedding vows. Like many of us, I was promised to this team long before the age of consent by virtue of being born into a Sox family.

Wow, good stuff Marian. I, too, was "promised to this team long before the age of consent," and despite the many frustrations that betrothal has caused, it's the community of Sox fans that keeps me faithful.

Mike Ward, the ListFather, wrote:

[Y]ou seem to have captured the essence of the 59 Sox rather well with the exception of the Series. (I gotta be kissing up to you since I can't remember anything so take the compliment for what it is worth) I remember 2 things about it. The first game and joy and then Larry Sherry. You missed Sherry, man.. he was the
Series... he put me into my lifelong baseball depression. I believe he was Series MVP and started this pops and taps thing that the Sox still suffer with to this day in any playoff series.

As far as the regular season goes, sounds about right. As I recall it, the Yankees were simply down that year more than the Sox were all that much better than they usually were and I was going to say it was mainly because Mantle was hurt a lot but facts don't back up that thesis as he only missed 10 games and other than being down
rbi wise, had a reasonable year for him. But somehow the Sox managed to sneak in and finally get one.

Ward is right, of course, Sherry was the Series MVP. Why did the Yankees struggle? Who knows. They went from #1 in Runs Scored and Runs Allowed in 1958 to #4 and #3 in 1959...then went back to #1 and #3 in 1960 [newsflash - the Sox were tied for #1 in runs scored in 1960 and actually allowed fewer runs than the Yankees by a smidge. It's probably fair to say that the 1960 team may have been better than the 1959 team - the Yankees won 8 more games than their Pythagorean projection, and the Sox won 3 fewer games - hence the 10 game difference]. Roger Maris may have been a key difference - he wasn't on the 1959 Yankees. He came to the Yankees in 1960, stroked 39 homers and took the AL MVP award. He had been good, but not great with the KC A's and the Indians, but was 25 and hitting his prime in 1960. He replaced Hank Bauer, who really stunk up the field in 1959. Mickey Mantle wasn't the difference - he slugged a little better in 1960, but his stats were pretty similar otherwise. The Yankee pitching was eerily similar in 1959 and 1960 - posting a 3.60 and 3.52 ERA in those years.

1959 White Sox - The Last World Series Team

In the third installment of my 10-part occasional series on the most memorable White Sox teams of all time, I'll take a look at the 1959 White Sox, who made brought the Sox back to the World Series for the first time in 40 years, only to lose to the Los Angeles Dodgers in 6 games. These were the "Strength Down the Middle" White Sox of pitching and defense. In fact, there is a Strength Down the Middle Web site that has just about everything you would want to know about the 1959 White Sox. You'd be surprised at how this team had hidden strengths.

The Pitching (and Defense!)

I started the other installments by looking at the Sox's hitting, but it's the pitching of the 1959 White Sox that deserve all the (electronic) ink. They were first in the American League with a 3.29 ERA - about a quarter of a run better than the next closest team, Baltimore (3.56 ERA), and half a run better than the AL average (3.86). They were second in the league in hits allowed per 9 innings (8.3), but were only average in BB allowed (5th), strikeouts (4th), and homeruns allowed (4th).

Given these underwhelming statistics, why did they lead the league in ERA? Well, a little luck and a lot of defense. They turned batted balls into outs - at a pretty good rate. Three White Sox - Catcher Sherm Lollar, 2B Nellie Fox, and SS Luis Aparicio won Gold Gloves. In addition, Jim Landis patrolled centerfield for the White Sox, and would win Gold Gloves from 1960-64. Thus, the White Sox had gold glovers at each of the four most important defensive positions - C, SS, 2B & CF. Hence, the "Strength down the Middle." The defense could only be described as very strong.

The defense helped the pitching staff, which was good but not really great. The leader of the staff was Cy Young award winner Early Wynn, who was 22-10 with a 3.17 ERA and 179 strikeouts. He was the only 20 game winner in the AL, and was 9th in ERA and 3rd in strikeouts. The pitcher with the best year, however, was Bob Shaw, who finished 18-6 with a 2.69 ERA, which was good for 3rd in the league. But he did it by getting hitters to find the defense's gloves - he only struck out 89 hitters in 230 innings.

[Here's an aside. Bob Shaw was an interesting pitcher. Bob Shaw had an ERA of 4.76 in 1958, 2.69 in 1959, and 4.06 in 1960. It's hard to look at his career to that point and not say 1959 was a fluke. But he pulled it together again in 1962-65 with the Milwaukee Braves and San Francisco Giants, only to fall apart at the age of 32 with the Giants in 1966. Even more strange is that Shaw nearly doubled his strikeout rate later in his career - to 148 K's in 235 innings in 1965. Overall, he was an average pitcher - with about 5 very good years and 5 very bad years. There wasn't any in between with Bob Shaw.]

The rest of the rotation was solid but not spectacular. Billy Pierce and Dick Donovan both finished with under-.500 records (14-15 and 9-10, respectively) with league-average ERA's of 3.62 and 3.66. 23-year-old Barry Latman also chipped in with 21 starts, an 8-5 record, and a 3.75 ERA. He'd be shipped to the Indians for Herb Score before the 1960 season.

The bullpen made quite a contribution, with Turk Lown and sinkerballer Gerry Staley going 17-7 combined, both with ERA's in the 2's over about 210 innings of work. That's an enormous contribution from a bullpen - and especially from two guys the White Sox picked up off of waivers. They also "saved" 29 games as a unit. Ray Moore also pitched 89 innings (8 starts), but had a mediocre 4.12 ERA and a 3-6 record.

The Hitting

The 1959 White Sox were not the Hitless Wonders, but the offense was mediocre in comparison to the rest of the AL. The 669 runs they scored were only good for 6th-best in the 8-team AL. That's bit deceiving, though, because they finished with only 18 fewer runs than the Yankees, who were 4th in runs scored. They hit .250 as a team, just a shade below the .253 league average. They were 7th in the league with a pitiful .364 slugging percentage, and managed a league-worst 97 home runs.

One thing the 1959 Sox did do surprisingly well was draw the base on balls. Their 580 walks were good for a tie for second in the AL and, as a result, they were 3rd in OBP at .324.

Once the '59 Sox got on base, they knew what to do with it. They led the league in stolen bases by a country mile with 113 stolen bases - 66% more than the next highest total (Boston with 68). They were caught 53 times, meaning that the stolen bases maybe added a net total of 5-10 runs (and maybe one win) - not exactly a major contribution.

Several players led the charge on offense - Sherm Lollar led the team in homers and RBI with 22 and 84. He had a .265 batting average, but a .345 OBP (he drew 55 walks). Nellie Fox, the AL MVP, hit .306 with a .380 OBP, drawing 71 walks. He also clubbed 34 doubles. Jim Landis hit only .256, but drew a team-high 78 walks and hit 26 doubles and 7 triples, managing a .256/.370/.379 line. The rest of the line-up was below average, with the possible exception of Earl Torgeson, who managed a .359 OBP because of 62 walks. He hit only .220, though. Ted Kluszewski, who the Sox picked up late in the season, contributed with a .297/.351/.396 line in 31 games. A backup catcher named Johnny Romano (later traded with Norm Cash to the Indians for Minnie Minoso) was .294/.407/.468 in 126 at bats - arguably the best performance on the team.

[Johnny Romano was a pretty good hitter for a catcher in the 1960's, and I probably never heard of him until looking at the 1959 Sox. He had a career OPS+ of 122 - pretty astounding considering that he was a catcher. He performed poorly for the St. Louis Cardinals in 1968 and was out of the league.]

The Season

The 1959 Sox jumped out to a solid 11-6 start before losing 5 in a row and sitting at 11-11 on May 8th, 4 1/2 games back of Cleveland and in 4th place. They then turned hot, winning 12 of their next 14 (mostly on the road), climbing to 23-13 and only 1/2 game back on May 22. They treaded water through the end of June, winding up with a 39-33 record on June 30th, although winning three of four from the Yankees in late June had to be a morale booster. That 39-33 record was still good enough for 2nd in the AL, 2 games behind the Indians, who had been playing mediocre ball themselves. The dreaded Yankees were uncharacteristically playing .500 ball at 37-35, but were well within striking range at 4 games off the pace.

Then the Sox went on a tear that would last two months. They were 20-6 in July, completing home sweeps of Boston (2 games), Kansas City and New York (2 games), and winning every July series. Of those 20 wins, 11 came by 1 run, again highlighting the contribution of the bullpen. By the end of July, the Sox were in 1st place by a game over the Indians at 59-40 (the Indians, too, had a good July, going 19-12). August was almost as hot, with the White Sox running a 21-9 record, which concluded with a four-game sweep of the Indians in Cleveland on August 28-30. The effect of that sweep was monumental in the playoff race - going into that series, the Sox had a 1 1/2 game lead over the Indians. They left Cleveland with a 5 1/2 game lead and command of the American League. A 14-11 September sealed the deal, and the White Sox wound up 94-60, 5 games ahead of Cleveland.

The World Series

Thanks largely to a 11-0 spanking in Game 1, the Sox outscored the Dodgers 23-21 in a pitching-dominated series. 3 games were decided by 1-run, including the Sox's only other victory, a 1-0 shutout win over Sandy Koufax in game 5 at the LA Coliseum.

The Sox "choked" in games 2 and three. In the 8th inning of game 2, the Sox down 4-2, Kluszewski singled to lead off the inning. Lollar followed with his own single, and Earl Torgeson ran for Klu. Al Smith then doubled to right, scoring Klu, but sloooooooow Sherm Lollar was thrown out at the plate with the tying run - making the first out of the inning at the plate. With tying run Al Smith on third (advancing on the throw) and one out, Billy Goodman struck out, and Jim Rivera popped to the catcher. In game 3, the Sox collected 12 hits, but could only convert those hits into a single run. (among other things, Sherm Lollar popped out in the first with the bases loaded an 1 out, Al Smith grounded into a double play with the bases loaded and no one out in the 8th)

Charlie Neal killed the Sox with 2 homers in game 2, and hit .370 for the series with a team-leading 6 RBI. Ted Kluszewski put up good numbers for the White Sox with 3 homers and 10 RBI, but he did most of his damage in the Game 1 rout. Nellie Fox played like an AL MVP, hitting .375 and getting on base at a .464 clip, and Luis Aparicio actually hit well himself, accumulating a .308 average with 2 walks. The normally larcenous Sox, however, stole only 2 bases the entire series, and were caught stealing 3 times in the fateful Game 3 alone. Had they stayed planted on first base, they would have won the game.

Dynasty?

Kind of. This was a good Sox team - they finished 2nd for a number of years in the 50's and 60's behind the dynastic Yankees of Mantle, Maris, Berra, Ford and the rest of the Hall of Fame. It was a competitive Sox team that broke through only once - when the Yankees fell flat in 1959. Makeup wise, this team would rank in the middle of the great White Sox teams of all time. But they made it to the World Series, giving them a special place in the Pantheon of White Sox history.

Treading Water . . . Or Slowly Sinking?

With today's 7-3 loss to the Cubbies, the Sox have dropped to 37-33, a mere four games over .500. Last year, they were 32-38 after 70 games, so it's a 5 game improvement.

But more troubling is that the Sox simply haven't done much since starting out the season well. In the first 20 games, (see list of season segments on the sidebar), they were 12-8 . . . four games over .500. After 27 games, they were 17-10, meaning that in the last 43 games, the Sox are 20-23. That is not so hot. In fact, during the same stretch, the Indians were 23-20, so the Sox are pretty much playing Indians-level ball.

This Sox team needs to get it together, and get it together fast. Last year, it was a couple of trades - for Everett and Alomar - that turned the team around, as they went 33-16 from July 18 to September 9th. The Sox are going to need a similar streak to be in the pennant chase come September, because it's obvious at this point that the Twinkies aren't going away, absent injuries.

Things do not look good, either, going into the All Star Break with Schoeneweis on the DL, making Rauch the Sox's 4th starter. Great, the Sox just found a 5th starter in Rauch worth a second trip to the mound...and now they have to do it all over again. During the Schoeneweis DL stretch, the Sox will play the Cubs, Twins, Cubs, Angels and Seattle. Of those teams, only Seattle is below .500 - and the Sox lost 2 of 3 to them in Seattle (thanks to Billy Koch).

I believe that these next 14 games are a key stretch....if the Sox can't at least manage to go 7-7, look out folks.

This Just Isn't Going To Do

Another embarrassing loss tonight at the hands of the 'Toons, another bad start by a starting pitcher (Buerhle with his second horrendous start in a row) and another crappy performance by a Sox reliever - this one courtesy of Mike Jackson, who hopefully has pitched his last game in a Sox uniform.

At this point, the whole staff needs an overhaul. There's no reason that the Sox shouldn't start trading off prospects - Felix Diaz, Jon Rauch, Joe Borchard to fill up the bullpen with quality pitchers for the stretch run. How about a David Weathers or a Lance Carter in the Sox pen. The Sox have a pretty good hitting club this year, but they are starting to let it slip away because of the horrendous performance of the staff in June.

This is not unexpected. Going into the season, the Sox had question marks all over the staff - Schoeneweis in the rotation, and Takatsu, Koch, Cotts, Adkins, and Jackson all essentially unknown quantities in the bullpen.

But it's frustrating that the cheapest commodity out there - bullpen arms - is exactly the commodity the Sox don't seem to have. We'll see what Kenny Williams does before the trading deadline....but with Magglio likely gone this year (in addition to perhaps Loaiza and Valentin), this could be about the best White Sox team we see in a while, and it's a shame to blow it for want of the price of a couple 3.50 ERA middle relievers

Blame Phil Rogers

Anyone notice that the Sox's pitching started to crumble after Phil Rogers authored this article on the Trib and ESPN.com? Since then by my count, the Sox have given up:

11, 13, 6, 8, 3, 4, 4, 2, 7, 17, 4, 5, and 9 earned runs - in 118 innings. 93 ER in 118 innings pencils out to... a 7.09 ERA since Phil Rogers' article. Throw out Arnie Munoz's 11 ER in 3 innings, and you're still at a Coors-esque 6.41 ERA. And mind you, 6 of those games were played in Pro Player and Olympic Stadium.

Nice jinx, Phil.

Another Choice Gribben Post

Doug Gribben tends to be so persuasive and incisive, that little commentary is needed on his e-mail posts. Here's his latest genius post to the White Sox list:

At this point, I think the Sox need only two things desperately: one more good starting pitcher and one more good relief pitcher. I am no longer worried about the CF/leadoff role like I was -- thank you Willie and Aaron... think about it, we have Willie and Aaron on our team! Where were you guys in the fifties (er, Mays and Hank, that is)?

After 64 games and 371 runs, it's clear the Sox offense is more that adequate. Last night they scored all those runs despite having their two best hitters essentially shelved. After 64 games, Uribe is hitting .315 with 10 homers and 32RBI, getting on base at a .372 clip and slugging .542. Right now he is actually the best second baseman in baseball...

We all know the 5SP problem. The Sox are playing 95-win-or-so ball with their big four and .100-or-so with their 5SP. This problem WILL cost them the division if it is not solved.

The Sox, however, at this point have only three effective relievers in Marte, Adkins(!), and Shingo, and three guys hanging on by their fingernails. You can get by with a couple of average arms in the pen. But Politte has to be replaced, he is actually worse than his ERA... this problem should be easy to solve.

What worries me is that they'll overpay for that last starting pitcher and cripple the team down the road. I don't know for a fact whether Borchard or Reed or, for that matter, Rauch or Munoz will amount to anything. Munoz didn't pitch any worse that Wilson Alvarez or Britt Burns pitched in their ML debuts, but of course, neither of them was allowed to turn on the spit for 22 batters. But I have this feeling of unease that if the Sox go out
and trade a package for, say, Freddy Garcia, that what will happen is the new pitcher will mysteriously bomb while the Sox players sent out will flourish.

Fortunately, the Twins are in a bind, too. They have a stockpile of talent -- especially corner outfielders -- that is deeper than anything the Sox can imagine, but they can't trade much of it because they face so many tough money decisions after this season that they need the flexibility. They can tweak the team, but they probably can't do a high-profile deal. At this point, they are in first place by a half game mostly because the umps have given them, by my count, four games this season already. That won't
continue. Further, this was the stretch where they should have opened a modest lead against the Sox, who played some tougher teams (e.g., Atlanta, Florida) than they did (Mets, Brewers), and they failed to do that.

Doug

My only quibble with Doug's analysis is that I don't even think Adkins is effective - he's got a WHIP of 1.5, and really is getting by on luck alone. That doesn't last. With the top 4 starters getting deep into games, Marte and Shingo might be enough for a while, but relief help is key. Getting Sullivan from KC would help, or any of the other middle relievers pitching well for other teams. Two more relievers are necessary for the Sox to have a solid bullpen. However, the supply of such relievers is bigger than the supply of starters, so I think it's likely that KW will be able to get the job done. Until then, the Sox better keep scoring 10+ runs.

My Civic Duty

I went to MLB.com today to vote for the All-Star team. I have to say, it's gotten a lot easier this year from years past - you don't need to re-fill out the ballot every time through, and it's only about 3 or 4 clicks through.

I made sure to vote for Frank Thomas - who really stands out above the other 1B candidates. Unfortunately, Frank's played a total of 2 games at first base and really doesn't deserve the 1B spot per se. But that's the way the All-Star rules work, and Frank is highly deserving of a starting spot on the AL team.

The Reign Of Terror Is Over

Billy Koch was traded to the Marlins for a 26-year old AAA shortstop. The Sox are also giving the Marlins cash, which is only fair, because I'd pay to see him on another team, too. Thank heavens it's over, folks.

Looks like his roster spot will go to Arnie Munoz for now, who will be called up to pitch against Montreal on Saturday. This is a pretty favorable matchup for Arnie - Montreal has a weak offense and Olympic Stadium is a pretty big park. Nick Johnson is the Expos' best hitter, and he's a lefty. I like this move, and I hope Arnie can come out, have a good game, and build some confidence as he rolls on into the rotation. I know the other four starters could use a rest.

More Twins Luck

So the Twinkies, like the Sox last night tie up the game in the top of the 9th against the Expos in Montreal. OK, I guess add another game to the Twinkies' silly total of gratuitous 9th inning comebacks. Fortuna's wheel will catch up with them sometime. (Another explanation for the Twins luck could be the utter disaster the Vikings have been in the NFL. Chicago has been blessed by the Bears and Bulls, while the Twin Cities have suffered some excrutiating losses by the Vikings and the Timberwolves. Even the North Stars had a pretty bad run of luck, broken only by their move to Dallas. But then again since the Twin Cities stole Major League Baseball from D.C. and the Indian Burial Grounds under old Griffith Stadium, they have some bad karma. At least in Chicago, we've never stolen a team from another city. And the only team we've lost - the NFL Cardinals - are such a laughingstock we wouldn't take them back. But I digress).

But the Twinkies got unreasonably lucky in the 10th inning - Luis Rivas leads off the inning with a drive down the left field line. It hooks foul by about 4-5 feet, and bounces off the wall behind the outfield wall. On the way back, it bounces off the foul pole screen (which extends below sight below the outfield wall), shaking the same.

The third base umpire completely blows the call - he sees the shaking of the foul pole screen and assumes that the ball has hit it on the way out. Lip reading on Extra Innings, I can tell that that is the story he's told to Frank Robinson as he charges out onto the field. After arguing with all four umpires, Robinson points out each umpire and gives them the "choke" sign and was tossed. As Bat Girl accurately describes, it took him just about everything he had to get thrown out - the umps didn't want to do it.

The third base umpire is clearly no physicist. It's impossible that a line drive could hit the foul pole netting and bounce behind the outfield wall. Robinson, not a physicist himself (I think he is a kinesiologist...or maybe an otorhinolaryngologist), probably didn't make this argument, but if he had, he might have himself a winner.

Instead, we are faced with more Twinkies luck. Hopefully, Matt Guerrier will pitch like the Hot White Sox Pitching Prospect he was tomorrow night in Montreal.

Shout Out To A Terrific Blog

Anyone who reads this blog (if anyone reads this blog) knows that I am a dyed in the wool Twinkie hater. In fact, I've devoted numerous posts in this blog (here, here, and here) trying to figure out why those stupid Twinkies play better than their stats suggest (I never have found any basis for it other than pure, unadultered, blind-squirrel-getting-a-nut luck).

But the fact that Bat Girl is a Twinkie fan and refers to the White Sox in rather unflattering terms doesn't deter me from pointing you to her blog. Put simply, it's maybe the funniest blog I've ever read. If you only read one more blog before you die, it should be her LEGO-Man re-creation of a rather unusual fielding incident in a Royals-Twins game in May. Her comedic brilliance is so pure, the Colombians would have to cut it multiple times with their worst agent to allow it to get to the streets.

Of course, none of these means that she won't be subject to severe penance in the afterlife for her allegiance to the Devil's own Twins. That's the nice thing about being a White Sox fan - it absolves you from all other forms of penance.

The Catching Duties

As chronicled elsewhere, the Sox have split up the catching duties among Sandy Alomar Jr. and Miguel Olivo in an interesting way: Alomar catches for Scott Schoeneweis and Mark Buerle, and Olivo catches for Loaiza and Garland and the 5th starter (if applicable).

I know Buerhle has a particular affection for Alomar, but the relationship between Schoeneweis and Alomar is not as developed. As left-handers, they both keep runners close and inhibit steals, so Alomar's throwing is not a problem.

I'm sure that this makes a lot of sense to Ozzie Guillen. However, there is probably a better basis for dividing the catching duties among the two. At this point in his career, Miguel Olivo murders lefthanders. His current line this year is .459(!)/.488/.973(!!) against lefties and .185/.250/.309 against righties. 5 of his 6 home runs have come against southpaws. Prior to this year, he was .290/.309/.548 against lefties and .214/.278/.292 against righties. That's a pretty significant platoon difference.

On the other hand, Sandy Alomar performs pretty well against right handed pitchers. This year, he's .308/.286/.538 against lefties (in only 14 at bats) and .271/.316/.329 against righties. Over the last three years, he's .249/.269/.351 against lefties and .271/.300/.402 against righties.

It seems to make sense, then, for Olivo to start all games when the opposition is starting a left-hander, while they split the games against right-handers. Olivo's overall offensive production should improve. Buerhle will likely still get the majority of games caught by Alomar, but Olivo should gain some valuable experience with Buehrle in anticipation of Sandy's retirement.

The more important long-term goal, however, is to get Olivo to hit right handers. He really looks woeful against righties on their breaking pitches, and that's something he's going to have to learn if he ever wants to be really valuable to the White Sox.

Forgotten Champions - 1901 White Sox

In my second installment of analyzing the great White Sox teams of the past, I thought I'd turn my attention to the White Sox first championship team - the 1901 squad. In fact, that team wasn't even a White Sox team, they were known by their more formal name - the Chicago White Stockings. One might not consider them a championship team in the traditional sense inasmuch as they did not play in the World Series - the first World Series was staged in 1903. So they were not "World Champions," but they did win the AL Pennant. And this was a pretty amazing team.

The Hitting

The White Stockings/Sox finished first in the AL in runs scored, scoring 819 runs in 137 games - a 5.98 runs per game clip. Over a 162 game season, that would be 969 runs - good by any measure. They had a .276 batting average, which was good for only 5th out of the 8 AL teams, but had a nice .342 on base percentage, second in the Junior Circuit (it was severely junior at that time). With a slugging percentage of .370, it tied for fourth in the league. They lead the American League in walks by a wide margin, totally 475 walks. The next best total was 380.

But where the 1901 White Sox stood out was their larceny on the base paths. It's commonly known that the dead ball era was also an era of stolen bases, but the 1901 White Sox were a special team in that regard. They stole 280 bases, which was first in the league by 73 - a whopping 33% more than their nearest competitor. And the stolen bases were distributed pretty evenly throughout the lineup - Frank Isbell led the team and the AL with 52 stolen bases, and every position player had 12 or more steals. Even Nixey Callahan, a pitcher, stole 10 bases.

The White Sox had some pretty good performers on offense. Four hitters stood out: OF Fielder Jones (.311/.412/.365), OF Dummy Hoy (.297/.407/.400 and a league leading 85 walks), 3B Fred Hartman (.309/.355/.431), and OF Herm McFarland (.275/.384/.383 - including the first ever AL grand slam). Second baseman Fred Mertes paced the team with 17 triples, 5 homers, and 98 RBI, while Hartman topped the team with 23 doubles. Other than Dummy's walks, no Sox player led the league in any category. But from a hitting standpoint, perhaps pitcher/manager Clark Griffith was the best guy to have at the plate. He hit .303, had a .446 OBP and a .427 SLG, even hitting 2 home runs, exclusively from the pitcher's spot (he'd play some OF for the White Sox in 1902).

[Incredible aside - Nap Lajoie was the dominant player in the American League that year - he led in batting average (.426 - next best was .340), on base percentage (.463), slugging percentage (.643), runs (145), hits (232), total bases (350 - next best 279), doubles (48), home runs (14), and RBI (125). That's like a nine-tuple crown. He jumped from the National League, where he was one of the top 10 players or so for he Philadelphia team].

The Pitching

The 1901 Sox also lead the league with a 2.98 ERA. They were solid in every category, second in hits allowed per game, tied for 3rd in walks allowed per game, second in strikeouts, and first in the league with 11 shutouts. A total of 10 pitchers made appearances for the White Sox in 1901. Of course, three of those pitchers only pitched one games, meaning that 7 pitchers accounted for 99% of the innings. Of the 137 games started, the White Sox had 110 complete games.

[Another aside - To give you an idea of how prevalent errors were in that era - the Sox allowed 4.61 runs per game, meaning that, on average then allowed about one and a half unearned runs per game. That was standard in the league. Cleveland allowed about two unearned runs per game. Detroit committed 410 errors that year, including 76 errors by shortstop Kid Elberfeld.

The best pitcher on the Sox squad was Clark Griffith, who was so good they named a stadium after him in DC. He finished 24-7 with a 2.67 ERA, which was good for fourth in the league. Cy Young led the league with 33 wins, and Griffith's 24 were third best. He tied Cy Young for a league-best 5 shutouts. Roy Patterson also won 20 games, and had 127 strikeouts in 312 innings - a pathetic strikeout rate by modern standards, but his total was good for second to Cy Young. Nixey Callahan had a good season - he led the team with a 2.42 ERA (second in the league), with a 15-8 record in 27 games (22 starts). Jack Katoll rounded out the rotation with a 2.81 ERA and an unlucky 11-10 record.

The Makeup of the Team

The 1901 Sox had a mixed level of experience in the majors prior to the inception of the American League that year. On the inexperienced side, P Roy Patterson was a rookie in 1901, 1B Frank Isbell had spent 1898 with the Chicago Cubs, C Billy Sullivan had 2 years with the Boston Beaneaters, P Jack Katoll had pitched two years with the Cubs, and Herm McFarland - despite being 31 years old - had played only two years in the "majors" (Louisville and Cincinnati).

Several of the White Sox had bounced around the majors for several years, including 2B Sam Mertes (2 teams and 4 years in the NL), 3B Fred Hartman (4 teams over 6 seasons in the NL), SS Frank Shugart (4 teams over 7 seasons in the NL), and OF Dummy Hoy (5 teams over 11 seasons in the NL, American Association and the 1890 Player's League). Hoy was also the oldest player in the league in 1901.

There were a few Sox with success in the majors prior to 1901, especially on the pitching side. Clark Griffith had won almost 200 games in the NL. Nixey Callahan, although only 27, had a couple of 20-win seasons with good ERA totals for the Cubs, among others. OF Fielder Jones had a good run with the Brooklyn Bridegrooms/Superbas, hitting over .300 4 times in 5 years.

The Season

The team started well and stayed pretty consistent all season. They tore out of the gate with a 24-9 record, lost 11 of their next 16, but then rattled off a 10-game win streak to hit 39-20. They cruised through August and September, eventually hitting a high water mark of 82-48 before losing 5 of their last 6 to finish 83-53. Boston stayed close to the Sox through late August, reaching a 62-40 mark on August 23, just 1/2 game behind. But September was poor for the Pilgrims, and only a 6-game winning streak at the end of the season brought the Pilgrims from 9-games behind to 4-games out to end the season.

The Sox dominated several teams, winning 16 of 20 from the Milwaukee Brewers and 14 of 18 from the Baltimore Orioles - two teams that would leave their cities in the upcoming years only to be reborn in their cities with the same names years later. The Sox kept the Pilgrims close by playing them poorly, going 8-12 against the Boston team.

The Sox were able to draw a fair amount of fans to see them play. They led the league in attendance with 354,350 coming to South Side Park (it seated 15,000) - an average of a little over 5,000 per game. The hapless Cleveland Blues were only able to draw 131,000 that year (the next year they obtain Nap Lajoie and drew 275,000. Not surprisingly, by 1903 the Cleveland team was called the "Naps"). The Sox fans were treated to victories very often - going 49-21 at home. The same year, the Cubbies (known as the Orphans) drew a scant 200,000 to West Side Park despite being an established team in the National League.

Dynasty?

Nope. Clark Griffith faded in 1902, Dummy Hoy was gone, and Herm McFarland played poorly. Mertes shifted to the outfield, but his replacement at 2B, Tom Daly, put up a woeful .225/.303/.288 performance. The team dropped to the middle of the pack in OBP and ERA. Fielder Jones had a pretty good season again, but everyone else trailed off. The 1902 squad wound up 74-60, 8 games out in 4th place. By 1903 they were the 7th place team. Only Billy Sullivan, Fielder Jones, and Frank Isbell would be positional starters for the 1906 World Series Champions, and Roy Patterson was the only pitching carryover.

Well, that's about as much as I could glean from Baseball Reference. But given their performance relative to their league, I'd have to say the 1901 Sox Team ranks in the top 3 of the 10 greatest Sox teams. I'll figure out where in the top 3 when I get to ranking them all.

Why Are The Sox Wasting At Bats On Timo Perez?

Timo Perez now has 85+ at bats for the White Sox this year - on pace for some 250 total at bats. He's produced to the tune of .256/.286/.326. In other words, he's useless. and he's started 3 games in a row now, 5 of the last 9. Since Magglio Ordonez went on the DL, Timo has gotten the plurality of starts, over Aaron Rowand and Ross Gload.

I don't blame the White Sox not bringing up Jeremy Reed or Joe Borchard to fill Ordonez's spot. But that doesn't necessarily mean that they had to give the at-bats to Timo Perez. He's roughly half as productive as Ross Gload - Ross creates 5.4 runs per 27 outs to 2.7 per game for Timo.

I've seen some scuttlebutt on the message boards that Guillen is friends with Timo and that's why he gets the bulk of the playing time. I hope Ozzie is smarter than that, because Ross Gload needs to get the bulk of the LH at bats while Maggio is out.

ADDED EDIT AFTER TIMO TIES THE GAME WITH A TWO RUN HOMER IN THE 9TH INNING -

Ok, Timo, way to pull a Jon Garland on me and tie the game with a homer. Making me look bad. You bought yourself a two week pass of no complaining from me. Enjoy it, because I'll most likely pick right back up on June 29.

More Remembrance of Things Past - the 1983 White Sox

One of the things that I've wanted to do is to go back and try to figure out why the White Sox were good when they were good - in other words, pick out a common theme to White Sox success. During the course of this, I want to look at the great Sox teams of the past - 1901, 1906, 1917, 1919, 1959, 1977, 1983, 1990, 1993-94, and 2000 (an embarrassingly short list).

The first one I want to write about is the 1983 White Sox. These were the great White Sox of my (early) youth. I was 11 years old when the 1983 White Sox played the Orioles in the playoffs - and I cried when they lost in four games to the O's on Tito Landrum's 10th inning home run off of Britt Burns. Had the Sox won that game, Lamarr Hoyt would have slayed the Orioles on Sunday at Comiskey, it was a lock.

Of course, my pessimistic father called the series for the Orioles (as it turned out, correctly) after Richard Dotson got shellacked in Game 2. (Weird how I can remember his statement - "I don't think its going to happen.") The series was tied 1-1 and he'd given up on the White Sox. It was cruel at the time, because it had the finality of your father saying something. If he said it, it was. So I was (to some extent) prepared for game 4 by his hopelessness.

21 years later, I can look back at that team with a little more objectivity. And, objectively, that team never should have won 99 games and wasn't really in the same league as the Orioles.

Despite winning 99 games and he AL West by a record 20 games, the White Sox were, surprisingly, in the middle of the pack in the AL in most categories.

They finished 1st in runs scored with 800 - quite amazingly, given the statistics that follow. They were 9th in Batting Average, 8th in On-Base Percentage, and 6th in Slugging Percentage. They did, however, finish 3rd in steals with 165 stolen bases with only 50 times caught - an amazing 77% success ratio. Sure, that kind of success will add runs (probably 10-15 runs, and maybe 2-3 wins), but not that many as to make them a 99 win team on their own. In terms of scoring runs, the 1983 White Sox may have been the luckiest team of all time. They didn't get on base that often, didn't hit for THAT much power (3rd in homers, 7th in doubles) to explain the run scoring. All other things being equal, they probably would have scored 750 runs and finished 92-70 or so. Just a freak year, I guess.

The starting lineup was bizarre in terms of the variety of production. There were several very productive hitters:

Carlton Fisk - .289/.355/.518 (28 HR 86 RBI)
Greg Luzinski- .255/.352/.502 (32 HR 95 RBI)
Harold Baines- .280/.333/.443 (20 HR 99 RBI)
Ron Kittle - .254/.314/.504 (35 HR 100 RBI)
Rudy Law- .283/.340/.369 (77 SB)
Tom Pacoriek- .307/.347/.462 (32 2B, 9 HR)

And several very non-productive hitters:

Mike Squires- .222/.326/.281 in 153 AB from the 1B position (!)
Julio Cruz- .251/.311/.311 in 334 AB
Jerry Dybzinski- .230/.283/.289 in 256 AB
Vance Law- .243/.325/.348 in 408 AB
Scott Fletcher- .237/.315/.370 in 262 AB

The Sox were just OK up the middle - Fisk was great, Law was good, and Cruz, Fletcher, and Dybzinski were a disaster. The corner infield was a disaster with Vance Law not hitting at third and the first base trio of Paciorek/Squires/Walker being below league average for 1st based. Kittle and Baines were decent corner outfielders offensively (Kittle was a disaster defensively), but not that special. So, overall, you could only say that the 1983 White Sox were an average team offensively, despite leading the league in runs scored.

The pitching was stronger, and was the source of the team's strength. The staff finished 3rd in ERA with a 3.69 mark, essentially equal to that of the Orioles at 3.67 (Texas led the league that year - Texas!). They were also 3rd in strikeouts, and 1st in walks allowed, due in no small part to Hoyt's freakishly low 1.07 BB/9 rate. The bullpen wasn't as solid, and it was a committee situation, with 48 saves split among Dennis Lamp (15), Salome Barojas (11), Dick Tidrow (7), Juan Agosto (7) and others.

All luck aside, the 1983 White Sox probably would have won 90 games with their production anyway, which would still have been good enough to win the AL West in the bad year that it was. But they probably were 5-10 games worse than the Orioles, who were 13 points better in OBP and 8 points better in SLG, and had a much better defensive team. The better team won that playoff series.

How does the 1983 White Sox team rank? Emotionally, very high. But strength wise, I'd put them 9th out of the top 10 teams of all time, ahead of the 1990 White Sox.

Frank And Remembrance

There is no question that Frank Thomas is having a terrific season this far (at his current pace, it's probably his 2nd or 3rd best season ever). But I just can't get this nagging feeling out of my head that Frank's game isn't different somehow in a meaningful way from his 1991-97 heyday. He seems to look for walks nowadays, where in the old days, his walks were more the result of his selectiveness. He only really pulls the ball, even with yesterday's opposite field shot. I get the feeling that this is about as hot as he is going to get.

Franks' current excellence just makes his previous performance even better. It makes me think back to those mid-90's days, when it seemed like every time the opposition actually pitched to Frank, he hung a rope somewhere. The opposite field homers. The screamers whistling past shortstops. Frank still hits the ball hard, but it's not every time up, like it used to be.

It's actually kind of surprising that Frank's career high batting average was only .353 in 1994 - when he was still just 25/26 (just think - he was ruining AL pitching at about Joe Crede's age), it seems like he should have hit about .380 or .390 in some of those years - he was just that good. And he made contact - he only struck out 54 times in 1993, and only 70 in 1996 when he hit .349.

Frank's clearly a hall of famer, but one has to wonder how he would be regarded if his career had taken a normal trajectory - with his best years in 1998 and 1999 during his 29/30 and 30/31 year old seasons. He might have entered the "Pantheon" of the top 10 hitters of all time - he's probably going to be thought of in the top 50 or so right now - up there with Gehrig and Hornsby, etc. He should have had 500 homers by now, and should have a career batting average over .320. It's a shame that Frank wasn't everything he could be, due to a variety of factors - injuries (1999 and 2001) and headgames (Jerry Manuel's tenure, 1998-2002). I would have nice to have a White Sox become one of the all-time greats. It would have been even better had the White Sox picked up a World Championship or two along the way. I hope the latter still happens.

Hey, Nice Thoughts On Jon Garland

I talk about Jon Garland and his maturity for not having terrible games and what does he do....he gives up a ten spot to the Phils.

Thanks for making me look like a jackass, Jon.

We Meet Again, Mr. Milton

Geez, has Eric Milton put a hamper on the White Sox over the past few years. ESPN says that he's 3-1 with a 2.98 ERA in 7 games (6 starts) against the Pale Hose over the last three years. Looks like the Sox beat him like a rented goalie on June 25, 2002 but he's had 14 shutout innings against the Sox since - a 3 hit shutout on August 1, 2002 and 5 innings of shutout ball on Sept. 29, 2002. He was pretty good against the Sox in 2001 as well.

The matchups look pretty grim, too. From the ESPN report, it looks like only Konerko hits him with any authority, although the Rash has 1 hit in 1 career AB against him. Jose Valentin is 2-9, but, hey, that was Jose batty righty!

Let's hope Garland has a good outing and the Sox can solve Uncle Milty. Need a W on the board.

Sox Looking At Okha?

In his most recent Notebook, Peter Gammons says that the White Sox are interested in acquiring, among others, Tomo Okha:

So Ken Williams continues to walk the floor for another starter. Williams, like Brian Cashman, Theo Epstein and others, was told by Mariners GM Bill Bavasi that he wants to wait a couple of more weeks before he starts taking bids on Freddy Garcia. Williams has talked to the Expos about Tomo Ohka, as have the Yankees. 'Unfortunately I'm not very patient,' says Williams.

No inside information here, but I noted a week ago that Okha would be a very nice fit for the Sox, especially given his $2.3 million salary. I like Okha, he's pitched well in every stop. He fits nicely into the 3/4 slot in the rotation, bumping Shoeneweis to the 5th start spot he so richly deserves.

Congrats to Kenny W. for looking at the right names. And the Sox undoubtedly have more to offer to the Expos than the Yankees, with their ultra-depleted farm system.

P.S. Gammons also notes that Kenny said that Borchard is untradeable, which I take a public posturing (especially because Kenny is directly quoted) to drive up Borchard's price. Note the citation to key Borchard statistics recently. Nice work on the media, KW!

I've Definitely Had It With Billy Koch

He must go. He must go now.

Another Ordonez Report

Kevin Dever picks up another report from Newsday out of New York saying that talks between Ordonez and the White Sox have broken down.

The latest report is that Ordonez and the Sox were close on 4-year, $50 million dollar deal, but that too much of the money was deferred.

Here's a couple of weird things about this report - (a) it's a different reporter from the last week; and (2) the contract is far different than the 5-year $70 milion deal reported last week.

Different reporters tend to have different sources, so if as it was speculated by Greg Couch, the original came out of the Management camp, then maybe this one came out of the Ordonez camp. And Kevin asks a pretty good question - why is all of this coming out of New York? Whatever the two stories are, they seem to be a tit-for-tat affair.

Second, the 4-year $50 million deal is a much different one than the 5-year $70 million deal discussed last week. It's $1.5 million less per year, and 1 fewer years. This is the key difference - Vladimir Guerrero range has been reduced to Garrett Anderson range, which makes a lot of sense, as I discussed in an earlier post.

If the two parties have agreed on total dollars and years, they really aren't far apart. Even if the Sox are trying to defer $4 million per year 10 years into the future, the net present value difference between the two sides is not dramatic.

Despite the rhetoric in these articles, I think this is a deal that can be (and, hopefully, will be) done.

Buried Wunsch Tidbit in Today's Trib Notes

In today's Trib, Foltman reports that "Reliever Kelly Wunsch cleared waivers after being sent to Triple-A Charlotte and the Sox 40-man roster is now at 39."

That's a key piece of information. It means that nobody in the bigs - no one- wanted to pick up Kelly Wunsch as a left-handed arm out of the bullpen, even though Kelly has pitched relatively well in Chicago and in Charlotte this year. That means that the Sox won't be able to get much(if anything) out of Wunsch in a trade. It's hard to lose bargaining chips like that - I'm surprised he was out of options and couldn't just be optioned down to Charlotte.

I hope that roster spot was worth it.

Timo Perez - Part of the Problem

You are either part of the solution or part of the problem. Magglio Ordonez is now confirmed out for at least 6-7 weeks, which is a problem. Timo Perez is pretty clearly not part of the solution with his .586 OPS. That's Valentin-versus-lefties type production, and it's not going to work.

So, while the White Sox currently have 5 outfielders, Timo just isn't productive enough to justify being part of the mix. I think that, no matter how much "flexibility" Jamie Burke provides, he's not the person to replace Ordonez on the roster. Jeremy Reed or Joe Borchard are the right people to fill the spot.

Is the Real Juan Uribe Standing Up?

Juan Uribe has been cold as cold can be lately - 4 for his last 29 (.135 or so)- bringing his average down to .316 from his lofty .360 perch not too long ago. A lifetime .258 hitter coming into 2004, it's hard to see how he's not regressing to his average.

But there are good things about Juan in his slump. During the 4 for 29 streak, he's walked 5 times, meaning he's still getting on base (although only at a .260 clip). This suggests to me that he has, in fact, improved his plate discipline. That's going to be valuable if he settles into a .270 batting average. A .270/.330/.440 line is pretty good from a SS/2B.

Random Thoughts

(1) What happened to Carlos Lee's power? 4 homers and none since...April 27. He's 0 for May and June so far. He's on a 12-HR pace this year. This is not what you expect from your LF. I like the .362 OBP, but the .414 SLG is very soft.

(2) The Rash (Willie Harris) broke out again today against Seattle - on base 4 times in 4 plate appearances. He's got an OBP of .383 (very nice) and is on a pace for 50 walks in 134 games. As much as I am skeptical of Willie, a .323 BA isn't too shabby.

(3) Scott Schoeneweis throws way too many pitches...and he was stupid enough to let Edgar Martinez and Bret Boone beat him. Those are the ONLY two guys in the Seattle order who have hit well against him, and he let him beat him. Dumb, dumb, dumb. I've never been a big Schoeneweis fan, so he still needs to prove something to me. One of the reasons the Sox need to get a 1-2 starter in a trade is so that Schoeneweis can be the 5th starter.

Further Thoughts On Jon Garland's Development

Average game scores for Garland
2004: 52
2003: 49
2003: 48

That seems like a gradual improvement for Garland, but you have to dig a little deeper to see that Garland has matured (numbers are the starts with particular game scores):

	2004			2003			2002
60+	3	27.27%	60+	10	32.26%	60+	12	37.50%
50-60	4	36.36%	50-60	7	22.58%	50-60	3	9.38%
40-50	2	18.18%	40-50	3	9.68%	40-50	5	15.63%
<40	2	18.18%	<40	11	35.48%	<40	12	37.50%
total	11	100%	total	31	100%	total	32	100%

What I draw from this table is that Garland really isn't having more very good games this year - it seems like every three games, he pitches a really good one - but that he is pitching fewer really poor games (game scores of 39 or less).

So why Garland is better this year is that he's keeping the White Sox in more games, and getting blown out less often. This will mean the Sox will lose fewer games he starts. By consequence, he should go from a .450-.500 pitcher to something like a .550-.600 pitcher, which really makes him a solid 2/3 starter.

Fifth Starter - Death Should Be An Option

Here's a comment that's worth a blog post:

On : 6/4/2004 1:01:21 PM Ilk (www) said:

C-Wint, with death not being an option..who is our best chioce for a 5th starter of these 3--Benson, Garcia or Perez, and what are you willing to give up for the?

Those three choices are all pretty crappy, I have to say, so it's a matter of which is less crappy than the rest. Here's what I see are the pros and cons of all three:

Kris Benson (aka "Assistant to the Governor"):
2004 Salary: $6,150,000
Current Stats: 4-4, 5.64 ERA, 60.2 IP, 27 BB, 41 K, WHIP 1.75

Pros - Benson has shown flashes of his good stuff this year - he's had three real good games, April 12 vs. the Cubs, April 18 vs. the Mets, and April 30 vs. the Brewers.. Notice a pattern? Benson's been crappy thus far in May/June, getting smoked a couple of times by St. Louis, and once each by Houston and Colorado. He had an 8.10 ERA for May. His GB/FB ratio is OK at 86/68 and only has given up 7 homers, but the opposition is hitting .317 off of him. Ouch.

The only "pros" I can see with Benson is that he will come cheap - he's pretty much pitched himself out of any real trade value. But he'll cost $3 million for half a season unless the Pirates pick up some of the money. If the Pirates will eat the $3 million and are willing to take someone like Josh Stewart, then OK. He might be good in a relief role - so far the opposition has only a .626 OPS against him in his first inning of work.

Likely cost: B-list SP prospect (Josh Stewart LHP-AAA, Felix Diaz RHP-AAA) + B-list AA or A position prospect(Spidale OF-AA, Nanita- OF-A).
Likely benefit: 5th Starter/Long relief - 5.5 ERA, Sox win 30-40% of games started. Free agent at end of season.

Odalis Perez (aka "People vs. Head, La Docket No. 26")
2004 Salary: $5,000,000
Current Stats: 2-3, 3.05 ERA, 73.2 IP, 17 BB, 53 K, WHIP 1.10

Perez is having a pretty nice year - the 1.10 WHIP and 17 BB in 73.2 IP is pretty nice. His half-season salary of $2.5 million is not too bad, and he's had a history of success. Believe it or not, he's got an 1.80 ERA away from Chavez Ravine - an excellent performance for a Dodger pitcher.

Perez is clearly performing the best of the three options, and he's the youngest at 26 years old. But he's also apparently a creator of chemistry problems - he's a little bit H2SO4 to add to the mix. Because of that, he's worn out his welcome to some extent with the Dodgers, reducing his trade value - but not by much. He's going to cost the White Sox a pretty penny if they can get him. Right now, he's the Dodgers' best starting pitcher.

Before the season, he was (allegedly) going to cost Konerko. Now, with Maggs out and Konerko hitting well, that price is too steep. He might cost, say, Carlos Lee + Arnie Munoz for the rest of the season, a price a little too steep to pay. If he can be had reasonably, I like him. I think Guillen seems to have a clubhouse touch so far this year, and the Sox don't have any other headcases. He'd be a nice pick up, and would probably be the Sox's #3 man based on his performance - ahead of Schoeneweis and Garland.

Likely cost: Starting outfielder/1B (Carlos Lee, Paul Konerko) plus B-list AAA or AA prospect (Arnie Munoz, LHP-AA, Michael Morse, SS-AA).
Likely benefit: 2/3 starter in playoffs, 3.50 or better ERA, White Sox win 60% of games started. Free agent at end of season.

Freddy Garcia (aka "the Loafer" aka "the Tipper")
2004 Salary: $6,875,000
Current Stats: 3-3, 3.01 ERA, 68.2 IP, 21 BB, 51 K, WHIP 1.24

Freddy's pitched much better this year after getting smoked last year to the tune of a 4.85 ERA away from spacious SafeCo field. One of the reasons for the shelling, the Mariners announcers suspected, was that he was tipping his pitches. That can be a problem. There are also rumors that he tends to phone it in and he's got a slight attitude problem. I don't know the basis for those rumors, but there is enough smoke to put a question mark beside his name in the chemistry column.

This year, he's running a 4.15 ERA away from SafeCo again - not too impressive, with 40 hits and 4 homers in 34.2 innings. This stats are OK, but not great. I'd plug him in as the fourth or fifth starter right - he's not pitching much better than Garland or Schoeneweis right now, given these figures away from SafeCo.

One huge positive is that Garcia is from Venezuela, a la Ozzie Guillen. I think that Guillen would therefore be more likely to motivate Garcia and make him happy. That could boost his performance in a Sox uniform and make him more likely to re-sign at the end of the year.

What will he cost? That's a good question. The rumor in the Seattle Times has Seattle asking for Rauch, Borchard and Rowand. Rauch is no big loss - Kenny's done with him anyway - and Rowand has played himelf out of a job anyway. But Borchard, too? Three weeks ago, I would have said, "Done!," but Borchard has shown enough flashes that he looks like he's not a throw-in to a deal anymore. I'd like to hold out Borchard for a deal for a middle reliever/set-up guy, which the Sox desperately need. My guess is that the Rowand/Rauch/Borchard deal is an initial offer by Seattle and that they'd probably take Rauch/Rowand plus a A or AA prospect - maybe Dennis Ulacia, a Mike Morse, or someone of that ilk.

The only question left would be whether Seattle would pick up some of Garcia's $3.4 million pay during the second half. I'd probably say some, but not all like Texas did with Carl Everett or the Mets did with Roberto Alomar. Of all the deals, I think this is the most likely to happen because of Seattle's desire to get rid of him and Ozzie's connection to him.

Likely cost: A-list position prospect (Joe Borchard, Jeremy Reed) + B-list starting prospect(Rauch RHP-AAA, Felix Diaz RHP-AAA) + ML platoon player (Rowand, Gload, Perez).
Likely benefit: 3rd/4th Starter - 4.2 ERA, Sox win 50-60% of games started. Free agent at end of season.

Final Analysis:

I think that the most likely deal is Freddy Garcia, but Odalis Perez would be the best pitcher the Sox could get. The thing about these three pitchers is that none of the three really fit the top-of-the-rotation bill the White Sox so desparately need. The Sox need someone who will go toe-to-toe with Kevin Brown, Pedro Martinez or Tim Hudson in Game 1 of the playoffs and the Yankees, Red Sox or A's will have to worry about being evenly or over-matched. Otherwise, the playoffs will likely be a short trip for the Sox. They've shown they can't bash their way past Kevin Brown or Javier Vasquez. The Big Unit would be a great pickup from this standpoint, but don't hold your breath.

I'm still not sure that Tomo Okha wouldn't be the best value (see post below). He's cheap, he's good, and he might not cost a lot in terms of trade value. Right now, he'd be the Sox #2 starter.

Post By Request

Hey, my first comment requesting a post on a subject! Like taping a dollar bill to a wall behind a cash register, it's worth putting up in full:

On : 6/3/2004 6:44:30 PM HCarabina (www) said:

I would like some predictions on what moves, if any, GM Williams will make in light of the possibility of surgery for Mags.

Well, that's a good question. The report from the Official White Sox Web Site is now that Maggs will be out for 4-7 weeks and that Jamie Burke will be called up from AAA Charlotte to fill his roster spot.

OK, well, let's map this out. 4-7 weeks means that Maggs will be back by July 1- July 22. July 11 is the All Star Break.

Burke will serve a a third catcher, giving Ozzie some flexibility to pinch hit for Olivo and Alomar. But he's also another right handed hitter. Now the Sox are aligned as follows:

OF: Rowand (R) Lee (R) Harris (L) Perez (L) Gload (L)
1B: Konerko (R), Gload (L), Thomas (R)
2B: Harris (L), Uribe (R), Dransfeldt (R)
SS: Valentin (L), Uribe (R), Dransfeldt (R)
3B: Crede (L), Uribe (R)
C: Olivo (R), Alomar (R), Burke (R)

Bottom line, however, is that the Sox will have to start a left-handed hitting outfielder every game under the current roster, meaning that, at most, the Sox will have 2 lefty hitters on the bench. If Harris and Gload are in the starting lineup, only Perez would be on the bench. Moreover, Burke and Dransfeldt really aren't starting options...so the bench is pretty thin going into the interleague part of the schedule.

What do I think Kenny Williams can do about it? Not too much right now. I doubt that he would want to trade for an outfielder - since the Sox have a lot of outfielders coming up through their system. Outfield is soming of a strength right now with Jeremy Reed and Joe Borchard at Charlotte.

It really hurts Williams inasmuch as he might have traded Ordonez before July 31 to pick up prospects and promote Jeremy Reed, if he thought that Ordonez wouldn't resign with the Sox as a free agent. However, that's a double-edged sword. Ordonez's stock has just dropped, as he won't be able to put up the 40-HR, 120 RBI numbers this year that will get him the Vlad Guerrero-type contracts. In the end, this injury might bring Maggs back to the White Sox long-term.

I'm only a little surprised that the Sox did not bring up Jeremy Reed or Joe Borchard. Yes, it's true that either of the two could be put into the starting lineup. But Borchard is hurt right now - he's sat out a bunch of games at Charlotte lately - and Reed is only hitting .285 at Charlotte, well below his career rate at a hitter's park. Kenny Williams is on record as preferring to promote people from the minors while they are hot, and Reed is not hot right now. Moreover, a promotion of Reed or Borchard would really make the White Sox 6-deep in the outfield, which they don't really need unless either of the two would be a major improvement over Gload/Perez/Rowand. The truth is, there's no reason to believe they would be a major improvement.

So, although I don't necessarily like the Burke promotion - I would have preferred that switch-hitting infielder Bryant Nelson (.333/.386/.577) be promoted - I don't think it's a bad choice. If Willie Harris going to play a lot of CF, then the Sox don't really need another outfielder.

More High-Quality Gribben Material

Doug Gribben posted more good information to the White Sox mailing list (he's good):

Sox weighted strength of schedule (that is, record of opponents in non-Sox
games weighted to the number of games the White Sox have played against them)
is .502. The Twin weighted SOS is .444. The White Sox have managed to build a
2-game lead despite playing a considerably more difficult schedule so far.

Did you know Billy Koch has "successfully" blown only two saves this year, and
that yesterday was the first time all year the Sox lost a game Billy had a save
opportunity in? I submit this, marked as Exhibit A in the Case Against Closers
Being All That Bloody Important.

Doug

Yes, this is a good point. But it's also the case that, quite frankly, the Sox have played very few games in which they've had a 1 or 2 run lead in the top/bottom of the ninth. Here's what they've had so far:

Total games: 51
1 Run Leads in 9th: 3
2 Run Leads in 9th: 3

So - the White Sox have only had 6 games where they were up by 1 or 2 runs in the 9th inning. That's 10% of the games so far. I'd submit that by the end of the season, this number will go up to 20-25%. And, in that case, the Sox's closer will by twice as important.